NASCAR DFS Picks – Bass Pro Shops Night Race Projections, Lineup & Strategy

• DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway
• Rain erased practice and qualifying, dropping Chase Briscoe to 26th despite ranking second in the model’s power ratings
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race

---

Bristol Motor Speedway usually gives us plenty to study before the green flag.

We get short-run speed, long-run averages, tire falloff and enough in-car complaints to make every crew chief reconsider his career choices.

This week, we got rain.

Friday’s weather wiped out practice and qualifying, so NASCAR used its metric to set the field. That leaves us without one of the most valuable weekly inputs, but it also produced a starting lineup with several drivers positioned well behind their underlying expectations.

Some of those opportunities are obvious. Others require a little more trust in the numbers. One selection requires trust, patience and perhaps a brief conversation with the DFS gods before lineup lock.

Our six-driver DraftKings lineup uses every dollar of the $50,000 salary cap. It includes a potential dominator near the front, two premium drivers buried in the field and enough place-differential upside to make the opening laps extremely interesting.

There is also a $6,000 driver starting inside the top 10. We will discuss that situation when everyone is emotionally prepared.

The Bass Pro Shops Night Race begins Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race DFS Lineup

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Bass Pro Shops Night Race NASCAR DFS lineup at the best DFS apps before the green flag drops at Bristol.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race DFS Strategy

Denny Hamlin ($11,000) | Starting Position: 3rd

A 500-lap race at Bristol provides an enormous supply of dominator points, and Hamlin is our primary candidate to collect them.

Hamlin starts third and enters the weekend ranked No. 1 in my power ratings. My model projects him to finish 5.72, while Steve’s model is even more aggressive with a 3.88 overall projection.

The comparable-track data supports his position near the front. Hamlin ranks first in weighted average running position and third in weighted fastest laps across my model’s comparable sample. His results include a 7.76 average running position, approximately 26 fastest laps and 30 laps led per race.

Hamlin begins the race directly behind Kyle Larson and Joey Logano, giving him immediate access to the lead and the scoring opportunities that come with it. His long-run performance across the comparable tracks also provides a strong path to fastest laps.

Larson is the most expensive driver on the slate at $11,500 and owns the pole. Hamlin saves $500, starts only two positions deeper and grades slightly better in my power ratings.

Saving $500 at the top of a DFS lineup does not sound particularly exciting until the final build is sitting $400 over the cap and the entire evening begins to unravel.

Expect these two to be on the front lines Saturday night.@dennyhamlin | @KyleLarsonRacin pic.twitter.com/RpZyAvP1BA

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 17, 2026

Chase Briscoe ($9,900) | Starting Position: 26th

The cancellation of qualifying handed us one of the slate’s most appealing place-differential opportunities.

Briscoe will start 26th, but my model projects him to finish 7.33. Steve’s model has him at 10.29 overall. Those projections create approximately 16 to 19 positions of potential improvement.

That is an enormous amount of upside before adding any fastest laps or finishing-position points.

Briscoe ranks second in my power ratings and fourth in my projected finishing order. Across the weighted comparable-track sample, he ranks second in average running position and sixth in fastest laps. His 7.76 weighted average running position is nearly identical to Hamlin’s, and Briscoe averaged more than 30 laps led across the sample.

His recent form also grades among the strongest in the field. Briscoe ranks well in both my last-three-race and last-five-race measurements, and his comparable-track numbers come from a strong 15-race sample.

A nearly $10,000 driver starting outside the top 25 normally arrives with a mechanical problem, a penalty or a qualifying lap that resembled a grocery-store parking lot incident. Briscoe simply lost qualifying to the weather.

Rain usually ruins our NASCAR plans. This time it placed the second-highest-rated driver in my model 26th. We have temporarily suspended our complaints.

The Chase gladiators are ready for their next battle. pic.twitter.com/W3S5UGwk3I

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 15, 2026

Chase Elliott ($8,700) | Starting Position: 27th

Elliott provides a similar place-differential profile at a lower salary.

The No. 9 Chevrolet will start 27th, while my model projects Elliott to finish 10.80. Steve’s model lands at 11.81. A finish in that range would give Elliott approximately 15 to 16 place-differential points.

Elliott ranks ninth in my projected finishing order. Across the weighted comparable-track sample, he ranks seventh in both average running position and fastest laps. His weighted results include a 12.86 average running position, approximately 18 fastest laps and more than 51 laps led per race.

The laps-led average adds some ceiling, but Elliott’s primary value comes from his route through the field. A top-12 finish would pair a strong finishing score with roughly 15 positions gained.

At $8,700, Elliott fits comfortably between the premium and midrange salary tiers. The starting position gives him one of the largest DFS ceilings in the field, provided Bristol allows the right side of the car to remain in roughly the same shape it had during driver introductions.

Bubba Wallace ($7,500) | Starting Position: 10th

Wallace is the lineup’s middle-range stabilizer.

He starts 10th, so his scoring profile looks different from the three place-differential options. Both models expect Wallace to remain near the front throughout the night. My model projects him to finish 11.01, while Steve’s model places him at 9.30 overall.

Wallace has also been one of the stronger drivers in the series recently. He ranks inside the top 10 in both my last-three-race and last-five-race measurements, and my model labels his current form as hot.

His weighted comparable-track results include a 13.56 average running position, nearly eight fastest laps per race and approximately 70% of his laps completed inside the top 15.

Holding his position near the top 10 would produce a solid finishing score at $7,500. Any movement toward the top five would create meaningful upside from the middle of the salary range.

Wallace is the rare selection in this lineup who may allow us to watch the opening laps without immediately calculating place differential in our heads. We should enjoy those six or seven seconds.

Josh Berry ($6,900) | Starting Position: 32nd

Berry will roll off 32nd, giving him one of the most forgiving starting positions on the slate. There are only five drivers behind him, while both models expect him to move well into the top 25.

My model projects Berry to finish 21.98. Steve’s model is more optimistic at 19.17. A finish within that range would produce between 10 and 13 place-differential points.

Berry’s full-season numbers are relatively modest, but his recent form has improved considerably. His last-three-race and last-five-race measurements sit well above his season-long baseline, and my model identifies him as one of the field’s current risers.

Across the weighted comparable-track sample, Berry has an 18.93 average running position and has completed nearly 53% of his laps inside the top 15. The speed numbers place him around the middle of the field, which becomes much more attractive when the driver begins the night from 32nd.

Berry’s DFS value comes from steadily advancing through traffic and turning a low-20s finish into double-digit place-differential points. He also carries very little positional downside unless the evening ends with a tow truck and a disappointingly early trip to the motorhome.

Austin Dillon ($6,000) | Starting Position: 9th

We have reached the portion of the lineup discussed earlier.

Dillon is the salary-saving piece that makes the entire construction possible. He is also starting ninth, which is generally an unusual place to search for safety from a $6,000 driver.

This selection creates the largest disagreement between the two models. Steve’s model gives Dillon a 17.07 overall projection, while my model is considerably more cautious with a projected finish of 25.05.

His starting position makes that disagreement particularly important. Steve’s projection would limit the damage to approximately eight lost positions. My projection would cost Dillon 16 place-differential points and result in several strongly worded internal memos.

The optimistic case begins with Dillon’s weighted comparable-track results. His 18.76 average running position is respectable for a $6,000 driver, and Steve’s Bristol-specific numbers are stronger than his broader season-long performance.

The risk comes from his lack of speed in the categories that create DraftKings points. Dillon ranks 34th in weighted fastest laps and averaged less than one lap led per race across the comparable sample. His recent form also grades below the field average in my model.

Dillon’s $6,000 salary allows us to combine Hamlin’s dominator potential with the massive place-differential ceilings of Briscoe and Elliott. Berry and Wallace still fit into the middle of the build, and the final salary lands exactly at $50,000.

A finish around Steve’s projection would make the construction work. If my projection proves more accurate, Hamlin, Briscoe and Elliott will spend the evening trying to replace the points Dillon left scattered around Bristol.

Want to bet the Bass Pro Shops Night Race outright? Grab the latest BetMGM promo code for NASCAR odds and futures, or check out theScore Bet for more lines.