NASCAR DFS Picks – Coca-Cola 600 Projections, Lineup & Strategy
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway
- A full Toyota manufacturer stack headlines this build with Denny Hamlin grading out as the top overall driver in the field
- Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Coca-Cola 600
The NASCAR world continues to mourn the loss of Kyle Busch. Busch’s impact on the sport stretched far beyond championships and highlight reels. He was one of the defining personalities of an entire generation of NASCAR, and the garage area in Charlotte has understandably felt heavy all week.
Our thoughts remain with his family, friends, team members, and the countless fans who grew up watching one of the greatest drivers the sport has ever seen.
But as strange as it feels, the show does continue, and so does a crown jewel DFS contest with $100,000 awaiting first place. The Coca-Cola 600 DraftKings “Burnout” contest costs $20 to enter, and we’d very much prefer not to leave the winning lineup on the cutting room floor.
Weather has already wreaked havoc on Charlotte all weekend, and Sunday’s forecast looks shaky as well. At this point, who knows if we get the full 600 miles or even halfway. Here’s hoping we do. Still, for $100,000, we’re willing to tolerate just about anything short of biblical flooding.
Coca-Cola 600 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections
DraftKings salaries as of race week. Get started on your Coca-Cola 600 NASCAR DFS picks at the top DFS sites and apps before the green flag drops at Charlotte.
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Coca-Cola 600 DFS Strategy: Toyota Stack
The Toyota camp has looked absolutely outlandish this season, so we’re leaning heavily into the manufacturer stack approach.
Denny Hamlin ($11,500 | P11)
Denny Hamlin grades out as our top overall driver in the field. We fully expect him to find the front at some point Sunday night, and there’s a very real possibility he simply never gives it back. The dominator potential here is enormous.
The nice part about starting 11th in a 600-mile race is that Hamlin doesn’t need to immediately send it into Turn 1 like he’s late for a dentist appointment. If we get the full distance, there will be plenty of time for him to methodically work through the field and start vacuuming up laps led and fastest laps.
Corey Heim ($6,900 | P39)
Corey Heim projects between 15.5 and 18.4 in our model, making him one of the strongest raw value plays on the slate. Heim led 69 laps at Texas earlier this season using alternate strategy calls, and with this No. 67 team not running for points, they have every incentive to get weird again if cautions and weather create opportunities.
This group only cares about the dub.
As the prized developmental prospect for 23XI Racing, Heim should have plenty of speed underneath him Sunday. Starting 39th only amplifies the DFS appeal because the position-differential ceiling is massive if he simply survives the marathon.
Riley Herbst ($5,600 | P30)
We have Riley Herbst projected around a 22nd-place finish, which would provide excellent value at this salary level. The box scores haven’t necessarily reflected it yet, but Herbst has quietly shown improved pace recently, especially relative to where he was running earlier in the season.
More importantly, he fits the overall Toyota build philosophy here. If this manufacturer group controls the race like we expect, Herbst becomes an easy way to round out the stack without completely detonating the salary cap.
Bubba Wallace ($8,300 | P23)
Bubba Wallace projects for a 7.47 average finish in our model, which would represent a gigantic position-differential gain from 23rd on the grid. We also expect a healthy collection of fastest laps if Bubba gets the long-run balance right during the night portion of the race.
The 23XI cars have shown legitimate speed all year on every track type, and Wallace profiles as one of the strongest tournament plays on the slate because he doesn’t necessarily need to dominate the race to smash value. If he simply runs where our projections think he can, the DFS score should take care of itself.
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NASCAR DFS Picks: Hendrick Duo
William Byron ($9,500 | P31)
William Byron honestly hasn’t looked quite like himself recently, and Hendrick Motorsports as a whole hasn’t seemed entirely comfortable with the current body configuration. Reports out of the garage suggest the organization still hasn’t fully dialed in the downforce platform on this rules package.
That said, Byron can absolutely win any race at any time, and starting 31st creates enormous DFS upside if Hendrick unloads better for race trim than they’ve shown thus far. It’s also worth remembering that Byron finished second in this race last season, so the upside at Charlotte is obvious.
Alex Bowman ($7,800 | P29)
Meanwhile, Alex Bowman continues to be one of those drivers our algorithm refuses to quit. Every single time we think the model is finally going to cool on Bowman, he pops right back up as a value play again.
Starting 29th gives him excellent position-differential potential, and unlike some of the cheaper back-half options, Bowman has realistic top-10 upside if the race turns chaotic late. Which, considering this is a 600-mile race threatened by weather, feels extremely possible.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.