NASCAR DFS Picks – Cook Out Southern 500 Projections, Lineup & Strategy

• DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway
• A weather-scrambled grid creates enormous place-differential upside, with five of our six drivers finishing top 10 here in March
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Cook Out Southern 500

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Darlington Raceway earned the nickname “The Track Too Tough to Tame” through decades of shredded tires, bent sheet metal and drivers leaving South Carolina angry at walls that never moved.

The weather decided the track needed additional assistance.

Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions were canceled, leaving NASCAR to set the field through its metric formula. Several popular drivers landed near the front. Our lineup received a collection of starting positions that appear to have been assigned during a small electrical fire.

That works for DraftKings.

Five of our six drivers finished inside the top 10 when the Cup Series visited Darlington in March. All six carry positive place-differential projections in both available models.

Cook Out Southern 500 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Cook Out Southern 500 NASCAR DFS lineup at the best DFS apps before the green flag drops at Darlington.

Cook Out Southern 500 DFS Strategy

William Byron ($9,400) | Starting Position: 20th

Byron starts 20th and carries the highest salary on the card.

My model projects him to finish 5.61. Steve places him at 8.57. Either result would produce double-digit place differential.

Byron ranks first in comparable-track average running position, fourth in fast laps and sixth in quality-pass percentage. He also finished eighth at Darlington earlier this season.

The No. 24 provides our best combination of floor, ceiling and access to the front.

Ty Gibbs ($8,800) | Starting Position: 28th

Gibbs starts 28th after finishing sixth in the spring Darlington race.

The models project him to finish 12.17 and 9.57, creating at least 15 positions of potential movement.

Joe Gibbs Racing owns the top team rating in my model, while Toyota carries the best manufacturer rating. Gibbs receives both benefits at a track where tire management and organizational strength become increasingly important across 500 miles.

He has enough upside to turn the back half of the starting grid into a temporary inconvenience.

The grid is set. Now we race.

Presented by @mobil1racing. pic.twitter.com/JzSLzSSVDZ

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 5, 2026

Chris Buescher ($8,600) | Starting Position: 35th

Buescher starts 35th after finishing ninth at Darlington in March.

My model projects him to finish 11.91, while Steve’s model places him at 7.86. Both projections support more than 23 positions of place differential.

Buescher also ranks fourth in my model’s comparable-track average running position and eighth in quality-pass percentage.

A driver with legitimate top-10 potential should not be starting three spots ahead of the broom wagon. Buescher is the foundation of the lineup.

A 10-week battle for immortality.

Nobody is safe in The Chase. pic.twitter.com/K2aKaDGjYq

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 5, 2026

NASCAR DFS Picks: Place Differential Targets

Carson Hocevar ($7,900) | Starting Position: 34th

Hocevar may carry the largest range of outcomes in the lineup.

He starts 34th after charging from the rear to finish fourth at Darlington in March. Steve’s model projects another major recovery to 14.43, while my model is more conservative at 26.86.

Even the lower projection creates seven positions of movement. The ceiling reaches much higher if the No. 77 resembles the car that sliced through the field here five months ago.

Hocevar has never displayed much interest in producing a quiet afternoon. Starting 34th finally makes that personality trait useful.

Corey Heim ($7,700) | Starting Position: 22nd

Heim starts 22nd in the third 23XI Racing Toyota.

My model projects him to finish 16.70, while Steve’s model places him at 14.80. Both give Heim a path to positive place differential.

The limited Cup sample creates some uncertainty, but his recent form remains strong. He also receives support from the model’s top-ranked manufacturer.

Heim’s assignment is straightforward: stay clean, finish around 15th and avoid becoming personally acquainted with the Lady in Black.

Erik Jones ($7,500) | Starting Position: 36th

Jones starts 36th at a track where he has traditionally produced some of his best work.

He finished 10th at Darlington in March. Steve’s model projects him to finish 16.14, creating nearly 20 positions of place differential. My model lands at 28.75 and still gives him more than seven positions of movement.

Jones brings two Southern 500 victories and one of the strongest track-specific résumés in the field. His current equipment lowers the floor, while the starting position limits the damage from a modest finish.

A respectable result will work. A vintage Erik Jones Darlington performance could break the slate.

The place differential is sitting there. We just need Darlington to collect its customary sheet-metal tax from somebody else’s lineup.

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