NASCAR DFS Picks for Homestead: Championship Lineup & Value Plays (Nov. 8)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- One front-row starter and five drivers rolling off 18th or deeper make up our DraftKings lineup.
- Ty Gibbs ranked fourth in our practice metric and rolls off 20th. That’s a gap we’re buying.
- See our NASCAR DFS picks and DraftKings lineup for the Homestead championship race, Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on NBC.
I worked 24 straight days through election season, including a 100-hour week. For my first weekend off in nearly a month, I’ve decided to spend it staring at a series of spreadsheets and asking why somebody hasn’t gained a spot yet. I’m told there are other ways to relax.
The Cup season wraps up at Homestead, where the fastest car on a fresh set of tires can look a lot less impressive 15 laps later. That’s why Steve and I spend so much time on consecutive laps in practice. Qualifying tells us who gets clean air first. The longer runs give us a better idea of who might still have something left when the field spreads out and drivers start moving up toward the wall.
That distinction has shaped our DraftKings lineup. There’s a case for paying up for a driver who can lead early, but there’s also a point where you’ve spent so much on the front of the grid that you’re asking the rest of the lineup to survive on gas mileage and good intentions. We used Steve’s projections and my model to find a balance, with particular attention to where qualifying and practice told different stories.
We landed at $49,900, with one driver starting on the front row and five starting 18th or deeper. If the long-run speed carries over, we can score at the front while the rest of the lineup works its way through traffic. If it doesn’t, well, at least nobody can call me into work.
Homestead NASCAR Championship DFS Lineup
The six salaries total $49,900. Compare scoring formats across the best DFS apps before building a lineup.
Homestead NASCAR DFS Picks and Projections
Denny Hamlin – Starts 2nd
Hamlin is our main source of laps led and fastest laps. He ranked fifth in our SpeedwaySteve2 practice metric, and my model projects him to finish 5.43, close to Steve’s 5.64. Across the 17 comparable races in my workbook, Hamlin averaged 43.5 laps led and 25.2 fastest laps. At Las Vegas this year, he started second, led 134 laps and won. At the first Kansas race, he started second again, led 131 laps and finished fourth. Either version of that race works for us in DFS.
Ty Gibbs – Starts 20th
Gibbs qualified 20th after ranking fourth in our practice metric. His best 15-lap consecutive average was 33.672 seconds, about a tenth and a half quicker than Hamlin’s. Steve projects Gibbs at 9.93, and my model has him at 12.17. He started 28th at both Darlington races this season and finished sixth and second. We’d happily take either finish from four rows closer to the front.
Bubba Wallace – Starts 18th
Steve has Wallace at 8.42, while my model is more conservative at 13.11. Homestead is the reason I’m willing to buy the upside. Wallace finished third here last year, led 56 laps and posted a 5.9 average running position. He also went from 17th to eighth in the second Darlington race this season and led 38 laps. Practice was more ordinary this weekend, with Wallace 20th in our metric. Even my less optimistic projection gives him roughly five spots of place differential.
Ryan Preece – Starts 32nd
Preece started 31st at Homestead last year and finished ninth. That’s a handy bit of history when he’s starting one spot farther back this time. His 31st-place practice rank is a reason to temper expectations, and my model has him at 17.93 compared with Steve’s 13.28. A finish around 18th would still earn him 14 place-differential points. He also finished 13th and 10th in the two Darlington races this year, so there’s a path to more.
Brad Keselowski – Starts 40th
Keselowski starts last after ranking 18th in our practice metric. That’s the widest gap between practice rank and starting spot in this lineup, and it gives him room to pay off the salary with a fairly uneventful afternoon. Steve projects him at 13.83 and my model has him at 17.07. He went from 28th to 10th at Las Vegas this year and led 142 laps on his way to second at the first Darlington race. Sunday, I’d settle for 20th. That’s still 20 place-differential points.
Zane Smith – Starts 27th
Smith finished 11th at Homestead last year and went from 34th to 20th at Charlotte this season. Steve projects him at 15.57, while my model has him at 21.34, right in line with his 21st-place practice rank. At $6,000, a finish around 21st is enough to contribute and keeps Hamlin, Gibbs and Wallace in the same lineup. If Steve has this one right, we’ll take the extra six spots and try to act like we expected them.
Thanks for riding with us this season. Enjoy football season, and I’ll see you in February. Probably. They haven’t asked me back yet, but I’m already excited to make the case for some guy starting 32nd at Daytona.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
