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NASCAR DFS Picks – Jack Link’s 500 Projections, Lineup & Strategy

By Phil Bobbitt in Racing

Published:


Ryan Preece on track at Kansas (2026).
Apr 19, 2026; Kansas City, Kansas, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Preece (60) leaves the pits during the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images
  • The Cup Series heads to Talladega for the Jack Link’s 500, where DraftKings has $100,000 to first on a $20 entry
  • We’re leaving $7,300 in salary on the table on purpose, loading the back half of the grid to chase position differential and superspeedway fastest laps
  • Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Jack Link’s 500

There are two types of people in this world: those shipping six-figure winning DFS scores, and those explaining to their credit card company why the new refrigerator suddenly has “premium ice.”

We, proudly and without hesitation, are currently in the second group.

If you recall, our previous refrigerator chose violence last Saturday night. No warning. No slow decline. Just tapped out like it had somewhere better to be, leaving us standing there holding a carton of milk and a rapidly expiring sense of optimism. It was less “appliance failure” and more “sudden, unannounced retirement.”

Last week didn’t bring home the $100,000 DraftKings payday. What it did bring was a brand-new refrigerator, complete with delivery, expert install, and the kind of quiet confidence that only comes from knowing you absolutely should not be trusted to handle it yourself. One brief trip into the crawlspace was all the evidence SpeedwayBrandi needed. We’re not appliance installation guys. Not now, not ever.

But here’s the angle…we bought ourselves time.

A full billing cycle. Thirty days before that credit card statement shows up like it’s got something to prove. And sitting right in that window is another $20 DraftKings contest with a cool $100,000 to first. No big deal. Just a chance to turn “questionable financial decision” into “forward-thinking investment strategy.”

Of course, the ice maker wasn’t optional. Not in this household. SpeedwayBrandi is running a full-scale hydration operation with a fleet of brightly colored Stanley thermoses that demand a steady supply. This isn’t a kitchen anymore. It’s a logistics hub.

So yeah, it would be great if we could win something soon.

Good thing we’re heading to the one place where anything can happen, everything usually does, and the leaderboard can flip faster than your confidence level on lap 187.

Talladega.

Green flag at 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX. Another $20 entry. Another $100,000 dangling at the top.

Let’s try to pay off a refrigerator.

DriverSalaryStarting Position
Joey Logano$10,00025
Ryan Preece$7,60011
Michael McDowell$6,90031
Connor Zilisch$6,50032
Todd Gilliland$6,40019
Cody Ware$5,30036

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Lock in your Jack Link’s 500 NASCAR DFS picks at the top DFS sites before the green flag drops at Talladega.

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Maybe you’re not a math guy with abacuses lining the walls like some kind of Renaissance risk manager. That’s fine. We’ll keep it simple.

This lineup is unique, baybay.

We’re sitting at $42,700 total salary. That’s $7,300 just…hanging out. Untouched. Unbothered. We’re not being generous. We’re being dangerous. And no, it’s not because we’re trying to expense the new icebox through DraftKings accounting loopholes.

We’re living in the back half of this starting grid. On purpose. Because at a place like Talladega, starting position is more of a suggestion than a rule. What actually matters is position differential, and on superspeedways, it’s king. Dominator points get spread out across the field, and fastest laps come from the back of the draft thanks to the accordion effect and a little thing we’ll just call…science.

Case in point: Cody Ware. Yes, that Cody Ware. Quietly sitting third in our superspeedway fastest laps data, averaging 5.8 per race. File that away for your next trivia night or your next argument with someone who still thinks DFS is just “pick the best drivers.”

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NASCAR DFS Picks: The Core and the Chaos

Ownership matters too. We project Joey Logano and Kyle Busch to be the stone-cold highest-owned drivers on the slate. And while eating chalk is part of the game, pairing both is a great way to end up sharing first place with a few thousand of your closest friends. Busch has also been operating somewhere between “volatile” and “unpredictable” lately, so we’ll take our chances with Logano and the far more stable equipment.

Logano and Michael McDowell are both superspeedway winners. In our model, they rank second and third in projected finish. Todd Gilliland is a problem on these big tracks and slots in as our sixth-ranked driver. Ryan Preece checks in fourth in projected finish. These aren’t just names we pulled out of a hat. These are guys who show up in both the model and the betting card, which is exactly the kind of alignment we’re looking for when we’re trying to turn appliance debt into financial freedom.

Then there’s the salary relief crew.

Cody Ware is more than just a punt. He’s a legitimate value with actual upside in this format. He’s led laps here, he’s posted career-best finishes, and apparently, he’s been hoarding fastest laps like they’re limited-edition Stanley drops.

And Connor Zilisch…look, your guess is as good as ours. The kid is talented. The equipment…well…let’s just say it’s not exactly top tier. But at Talladega, that gap shrinks. Unpredictability levels the playing field, and if the field forgets about him because of early-season scars, that’s how you end up scooping value while everyone else is chasing ghosts.

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That’s the build.

Uncomfortable. Unconventional. Probably a little irresponsible.

Just how we like it.

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Phil Bobbitt

Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.

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