NASCAR DFS Picks – Phoenix Projections, Lineup & Strategy (Oct.18)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Building around affordable Penske speed to leave room for upside throughout this Phoenix DFS lineup
- One bargain driver brings strong short-track results. Another just needs to keep the accounting department happy
- The Freeway Insurance 500 starts Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network
Phoenix gives us 312 laps on Sunday, so there are plenty of DraftKings points available for leading laps and setting fastest laps. We’d like to collect those. Preferably without spending so much on two drivers that the rest of our lineup needs a bake sale.
That’s where the Penske pricing helps. Joey Logano starts second and costs $10,200, giving us a shot at early laps led for less than Christopher Bell ($11,200) or Denny Hamlin ($10,700). Austin Cindric costs $8,700 and starts 15th, with enough practice speed to make a run toward the top 10.
Building around those two leaves room for Chase Briscoe, plus drivers starting farther back who can score points by moving forward. Our Freeway Insurance 500 lineup comes to $49,700. We’re leaving $300 on the table, which unfortunately cannot be applied toward whatever this race does to our blood pressure.
Freeway Insurance 500 DFS Lineup
NASCAR DFS Projections and Strategy
Joey Logano — $10,200
Logano starts alongside teammate Ryan Blaney, giving Team Penske control of the front row and everyone else something immediately annoying to deal with.
At this salary and starting position, we’re shopping for laps led and fastest laps. Finishing fifth after spending the afternoon politely following people would leave us wanting more.
Fortunately, Steve’s projection puts Logano at 4.68, while my model lands at 7.34. His weighted average running position across comparable tracks is 8.80, and he ranks eighth in the SpeedwaySteve2 practice metric.
Starting second gives Logano an immediate opportunity to get out front and begin accumulating the bonus points that can separate our lineup. We’d appreciate him doing that before the first commercial break.
Chase Briscoe — $9,900
Briscoe gets our other front-running spot, and there’s plenty to like before we even get to the part where Joe Gibbs Racing generally brings useful equipment.
He ranks sixth in our practice metric and carries a 9.91 projected finish in my model. Steve has him a little higher at 8.67. Both projections support a competitive afternoon, with his third-place starting spot providing access to something considerably better.
The salary requires some ambition. We’re looking for Briscoe to spend meaningful time near the lead and claim a share of those dominator points.
Briscoe has also won the last two races. Neither came at a track we’re using as a Phoenix comparable, so we’ll keep those victories in the recent-form column. Still, the practice speed and starting position give us plenty of reason to believe he can stay in the conversation. Somebody should probably tell him other drivers would like a turn.
Austin Cindric — $8,700
Cindric gives us a more balanced route to fantasy production.
Starting 15th leaves room for positive place differential, and his seventh-place ranking in our practice metric suggests he brought enough speed to go get it. My model projects him at 12.48, while Steve’s projection is 10.64.
His weighted average running position across comparable tracks is 12.99, adding another piece of support for a move toward the top 10.
A top-10 run would fit this lineup beautifully, particularly if our more expensive drivers are busy collecting laps-led points.
We’ll happily accept a quiet, productive Cindric afternoon. Pass a few cars, bring it home and let somebody else provide the footage for Monday’s disciplinary meeting.
Bubba Wallace — $8,200
Wallace starts 23rd, which gives us the kind of place-differential opportunity that makes a middling qualifying effort considerably easier to forgive.
My model projects a 14.16 finish, and Steve’s number is 11.01. That’s roughly nine to 12 positions of potential improvement, with a top-10 finish offering additional upside.
His practice performance was more modest, ranking 14th in our metric. That still puts his speed comfortably ahead of his starting position and supports the expectation that he can move forward.
At $8,200, Wallace fits nicely between our expensive front-running ambitions and the cheaper pieces needed to fund them.
There’s plenty of room for him to score without doing anything outrageous. Pass cars, finish well and keep the fenders attached. We realize that last part can become a philosophical disagreement on a Phoenix restart.
Josh Berry — $7,700
Berry gives us the Penske-lite option. The Wood Brothers’ technical alliance with Team Penske lets us keep shopping in the same neighborhood, just with a more agreeable price tag.
He’s also been excellent on the shorter tracks during the second half of the season: fourth at Iowa, eighth at Richmond, third at New Hampshire and sixth at Bristol. At New Hampshire, he led 73 laps and posted a 3.3 average running position. That’s considerably more convincing than “we have a good feeling about him.”
Berry ranks fifth in our practice metric this weekend. Steve projects him at 10.16, while my model is more cautious at 13.82.
Starting ninth leaves some place-differential risk, but the speed and recent short-track results give us reason to chase a strong finish. At $7,700, we’re getting a useful discount on the extended Penske family.
John Hunter Nemechek — $5,000
Nemechek handles the budget. Usually, the joke is that his greatest contribution to a race team arrives in the sponsorship account. This week, we’re hoping he can fund our operation, too.
At $5,000, he makes the rest of this lineup possible, and starting 32nd gives him room to contribute through positive place differential.
Our model projects him at 25.65, while Steve has him at 20.88. His 22nd-place practice ranking offers some additional encouragement, although we’ll keep our expectations reasonable.
A clean race and a finish somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s would do the job nicely. We’re asking him to pass a few cars and help balance the books. Surely that second part feels familiar.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
