NASCAR Phoenix Predictions, Best Bets & Odds for the Freeway Insurance 500
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- We’re backing a driver to overcome a 15-position starting deficit, with both models pointing toward the same matchup winner.
- A plus-money top-10 bet gives us access to Penske speed without paying the favorite’s price.
- The Freeway Insurance 500 starts Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network.
Phoenix gives us 312 laps on Sunday, and at least one restart where somebody decides the dogleg has room for seven cars. We’ll spend hours studying the data, only to watch a driver approach a closing gap with the confidence of a guy who thinks his shopping cart will fit between two parked cars.
Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell look like the drivers to beat in the Freeway Insurance 500. Unfortunately, the sportsbooks have also managed to identify the fast cars. Tough break for those of us hoping they’d spend the weekend watching football.
The outright prices don’t leave us particularly excited, so we’re heading into the matchup and top-10 markets. There are other ways to cash a ticket besides correctly identifying who gets to spray the champagne.
Our two selections lean on practice speed, comparable-track performance and prices that give us room to work. We’ve done the homework. Now we politely request that everyone involved keep all four tires pointed in the appropriate direction.
NASCAR Phoenix Odds
NASCAR Phoenix Best Bets
Kyle Larson over Ty Gibbs (-114, BetRivers)
Larson starts 22nd. Gibbs starts seventh.
Yes, we’ve seen the starting lineup. No, we haven’t accidentally sorted it backward.
Gibbs gets a 15-position head start, which is a perfectly reasonable thing to worry about. Larson has traffic to work through, and every additional car he encounters creates another opportunity for somebody to make an ambitious decision.
But once we account for starting position, practice and the rest of our inputs, both models still favor Larson.
Our projection puts Larson at 9.40 and Gibbs at 13.89, a 4.49-position advantage. Steve has Larson at 6.90 and Gibbs at 9.20. Different numbers, same preferred driver.
Practice gives us a good explanation for that agreement. Larson ranked 13th in the SpeedwaySteve2 practice metric, while Gibbs ranked 25th.
Larson wasn’t exactly putting on a clinic, but Gibbs’ practice performance didn’t match his seventh-place qualifying effort. Starting near the front is helpful. Having enough speed to stay there is generally considered a useful accessory.
The comparable-track numbers also favor Larson. His weighted average running position is 10.82, compared with 14.10 for Gibbs. Larson spent a weighted 78.2% of those laps inside the top 15, versus 62.9% for Gibbs.
That supports the idea that Larson can work forward while Gibbs has a tougher time protecting his starting spot. We aren’t asking Larson to pass 15 cars immediately. There are 312 laps available, and we’d prefer he use a few of them before attempting anything that requires an explanation afterward.
Our matchup tool gives Larson a 58.9% chance of beating Gibbs, making his fair price approximately −143. At BetRivers’ −114, we need a 53.3% win rate to break even.
That’s about 5.6 percentage points of model value, backed by an independent projection that also favors Larson.
The starting-position disadvantage is real, and Gibbs could certainly find more speed during the race. But we’re comfortable taking Larson at this price.
He can finish eighth and cash this ticket. He can finish 12th and cash it. We’ll even accept an afternoon that inspires absolutely nobody, provided Gibbs finishes behind him.
It’s a wonderfully modest request for a man who regularly makes the difficult stuff look easy.
Austin Cindric Top-10 Finish (+150, theScore Bet)
We’d also like a little Penske exposure without paying the full Blaney admission price.
Cindric starts 15th and ranked seventh in our practice metric. That gives us a driver with speed, room to move forward and a top-10 price that still pays plus money.
Five spots, Austin. We’ve asked for more from people merging onto Route 295.
Our model gives Cindric a 47.3% chance of finishing inside the top 10. The +150 price requires a 40% success rate to break even, leaving a 7.3-percentage-point edge. His fair price lands around +112.
We should address the projected finishes, too. Our model has Cindric at 12.48, while Steve has him at 10.64. Both sit outside the top 10.
Those projections summarize a range of possible outcomes. They don’t mean Cindric is contractually obligated to finish 11th or worse. At +150, we have enough room to back the better outcomes without needing them every week.
His recent results on relevant tracks show the upside. Cindric finished third at Richmond, 12th at New Hampshire and 10th at Gateway.
Richmond was particularly encouraging. He posted a 5.9 average running position, so that third-place finish came with a car that belonged up front.
There have been some ugly results mixed in. He finished 34th in the spring Phoenix race and 29th at Iowa. The Phoenix average running position was 15.0, which tells a less disastrous story than the finishing position, but we aren’t hanging either result on the refrigerator.
Across comparable tracks, his weighted average running position is 12.99. That’s a reasonable starting point for this evaluation. His seventh-ranked practice performance gives us a reason to expect more this weekend.
We also get the benefit of Penske equipment on a weekend when the organization has already locked out the front row. Cindric still needs to do his own work, but we’re encouraged by the speed available in the neighborhood.
The price is the final piece. DraftKings has this bet at +120, while BetRivers offers +105. We can get +150 at theScore.
Same driver. Same required finish. Considerably better payout.
We spend enough time trying to figure out what these cars will do. Taking the best available number is the part we can actually control.
Follow SpeedwaySteve2 on JuiceReel for the complete betting card. Every wager is synced to the profile as it’s placed.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
