NASCAR DFS Picks – Toyota/Save Mart 350 Projections, Lineup & Strategy
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway
- Shane Van Gisbergen starts from pole as the obvious dominator play, with the rest of the lineup built on place differential
- Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Toyota/Save Mart 350
Vacation has been great.
The cabin is beautiful, the weather has cooperated, and I’m happy to report I haven’t been eaten by a black bear.
Yet.
The downside is that reliable internet has been about as difficult to find as passing opportunities at Sonoma Raceway.
Fortunately, Sonoma isn’t one of those tracks where we need to overcomplicate things. Track position matters. Mistakes get punished. The drivers who manage tire wear, execute on pit road and stay out of trouble usually find themselves near the front when it counts.
With several quality road-course racers starting deeper in the field, there’s plenty of place-differential upside to build around this week.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections
DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Toyota/Save Mart 350 NASCAR DFS lineup at the best DFS sites and apps before the green flag drops at Sonoma.
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Toyota/Save Mart 350 DFS Strategy
There’s no reason to overthink Shane Van Gisbergen this week.
He starts from the pole and tops my projected finish model by a comfortable margin. While he ranked sixth in the proprietary SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric, that was more than enough to reinforce what we’ve seen over the past two seasons. SVG has become the benchmark on road courses, and with clean air from the opening lap, he’s the clear dominator candidate despite carrying the slate’s highest salary.
Chris Buescher gives us another proven road-course ace without paying a five-figure salary. He ranked inside the top 10 in the SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric, while our model projects him seventh overall despite starting 12th. Over his last nine road-course starts, Buescher owns an average finish of 11.1, an average running position of 12.7 and nearly 70% of his laps inside the top 15.
NASCAR DFS Picks: Place Differential Targets
Brad Keselowski is a DFS play through and through.
His road-course numbers won’t jump off the page, but neither does a starting spot of 35th. Place differential is king in DFS, and Keselowski has as much of it available as anyone in the field. He doesn’t need to contend for the win to pay off a $6,000 salary.
Ryan Preece quietly checks a lot of boxes this weekend. He graded well in the SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric, our model projects him to improve on his 19th-place starting position, and he’s quietly become one of the more dependable road-course racers in the series over the last two seasons.
Zane Smith may be my favorite value on the slate.
He ranked inside the top half of the field in the SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric despite qualifying 24th. That combination of practice speed and place-differential upside is exactly what we’re looking for in tournaments, especially at just $6,600.
Finally, we round out the lineup with Bubba Wallace.
This is a momentum play as much as anything.
Wallace is coming off a runner-up finish in last week’s inaugural San Diego Street Course race after overcoming a two-lap penalty, the best road-course performance of his Cup Series career.
That speed carried over to Sonoma, where he ranked ninth in the SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric despite qualifying 26th. Our model projects him to move comfortably forward through the field, giving him one of the better combinations of speed and place-differential upside on the entire slate.
At just $6,900, Bubba doesn’t need another podium to smash value. A clean race and another strong road-course performance should be more than enough.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
