NASCAR Xfinity 500 Predictions, Odds & Longshots to Bet (Sunday, Nov. 3)

• NASCAR Xfinity 500 goes green this Sunday at the iconic Martinsville Speedway
• Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick have clinched spots at Phoenix. Who will occupy the final two slots after Martinsville?
• Below, see our NASCAR Xfinity 500 predictions, odds and longshot NASCAR picks

The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs determine its “Final Four” this Sunday, November 3rd with the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. The green flag drops at 2 PM ET with live coverage on NBC Network.

The famed “paper clip” 0.526-mile track races at a rapid pace, setting the stage for an unpredictable and action-packed start to the playoffs. In April, William Byron held off teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott to snag the victory. It only took 15 laps of overtime to determine the winner and 13 lead changes.

The oddsmakers are expecting several of the usual drivers to contend on Sunday afternoon:

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Odds

At +350 odds (7/2), the implied probability for favorite Kyle Larson is 22.22%. Denny Hamlin comes in at 18.18%, with Ryan Blaney not too far behind at 16.67%.

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Odds as of Nov. 2 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Register with the DraftKings promo code to wager on the Xfinity 500. 

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Predictions

The spotlight shines heavily on Kyle Larson here. Larson is seven points behind William Byron currently for the fourth and final spot. Again, only four drivers will have a chance to win the season championship at Phoenix. The last six Fall races at the Virginia track have seen the Chevy, Ford, and Toyota cars all win twice each. Also, the previous three Fall winners have all qualified outside the Top 10. It would seem it is Chevy’s turn.

Chase Elliott is not a bad alternate here. The No. 9 driver won the Fall race here in 2020 then won the title at Phoenix a week later. However, William Byron may be the top choice. He has won twice in the last seven races here and has won both in the Spring and the Fall. He has led a respectable 9.6% of the laps since 2021.

Is it William Byron’s turn to SWEEP at Martinsville? 🧹 #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/AFjGmk5ViO

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) November 1, 2024

In a race likely to be a bit mundane at times, Byron’s ability to sneak his way up the field should serve him well during the closing laps of the race. The +900 price tag offers solid value for a driver with a proven Atlanta track record.

Looking for a top 5 bet? Cast your lot with Ross Chastain at +250. The Trackhouse Racing pilot will be out for redemption after getting squeezed out of the playoffs and has the Atlanta chops to get it done.

Chastain was a Daytona 500 contender and has a pair of runner-up finishes in his last four Atlanta starts. His 7.8 average finish in that span is second only to Byron. Expect the No. 1 Chevy to be a staple at the sharp end of the field.

• Best Bet to Win: William Byron (+900 at DraftKings)
• Top 5 Finish: Alex Bowman (+450 at Caesars)

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Longshots

If you are one who likes to take a chance on a flier, the Bowman Top 5 is worth a look as we mentioned. Oh, a longshot winner is needed. Chase Briscoe is right on the fence at +2500 on several sites, including DraftKings and Caesars.

Briscoe wants to end 2024 on a good note. He has five Top 10 results and two Top 5’s. The Ford driver has been close, and two of Briscoe’s best-graded tracks are at Phoenix, and you guessed it, Martinsville.

Chase Briscoe is 5 for 5 at finishing in the top ten at Martinsville in the Next Gen.

7.4 average finish and the 4th best Next Gen Speed Ranking in the new car.

Also super impressive is that he's placed in 9 of the 10 opening Stages, finishing in the top 7!

— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) October 29, 2024

I like the chances of Kyle Busch more than most. Now, this is a risk, and Busch has been close several times before in 2024. The No. 8 Chevy driver has had one rough season. Richard Childress Racing’s top bet has not won once this year. Busch has won once in every year since 2005.

Still, this is a big risk as a shorter longshot. Busch has not been able to close the deal all year. Is this the one time he finally does?

If the No. 8 Chevy can avoid the bad luck, look out. He’s my NASCAR Xfinity 500 sleeper at 30/1 odds.

NASCAR Longshot Picks:

• Chase Briscoe (+2500)
• Kyle Busch (+3000)