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Pala Casino 400 Odds, Predictions & Betting Trends 2023

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Feb 21, 2023 · 9:20 PM PST

NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson celebrates a win
Feb 27, 2022; Fontana, California, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson (5) celebrates his victory of the WISE Power 400 at Auto Club Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NASCAR season travels to California for the Pala Casino 400 set to run on Sunday, February 26th, 2023
  • The contending favorites include Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott
  • Below are the Pala Casino 400 betting odds and picks ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR heads west to Fontana, California, for the second race of the 2023 season. The Auto Club Speedway is a 2-mile “D-shaped-oval” intermediate track. The race distance totals 400 miles (200 laps). Who can sling around those 14-degree banked turns with the 11-degree front stretch?

This weekend’s race is a week after the Daytona 500 where Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ended his 199-race drought and held off Joey Logano for a once-in-a-lifetime victory.

The table below lists the full slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the Pala Casino 400 (win, podium finish, and top-ten finish). Under the table, find the Pala Casino 400 predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

Pala Casino 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Ten Odds
Kyle Larson +700 +215 -205
Ryan Blaney +1000 +300 -150
Chase Elliott +1000 +300 -150
Kyle Busch +1000 +300 -150
Denny Hamlin +1000 +300 -150
Christopher Bell +1100 +325 -139
Joey Logano +1200 +360 -130
Martin Truex Jr. +1200 +360 -130
Tyler Reddick +1200 +360 -130
Ross Chastain +1300 +385 -139
William Byron +1600 +475 -118
Alex Bowman +2000 +575 -106
Kevin Harvick +2000 +575 -106
Erik Jones +2500 +700 -150
Bubba Wallace +3000 +850 +140
Daniel Suarez +4000 +1100 +170
Chase Briscoe +4000 +1100 +170
Austin Dillon +4000 +1100 +170
Ty Gibbs +5000 +1300 +200
Brad Keselowski +5000 +1300 +200
Ryan Preece +5000 +1300 +200


Larson enters this race as a +700 favorite to win, followed by Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Busch at +1000.  Be aware this intermediate track features longer runs and drivers can stretch leads out quickly. Kyle Larson blocked Chase Elliott into the wall then held everyone else off at the restart to win in 2022. Does Chase Elliott get his revenge or will there be a surprise?

NASCAR drivers will start their engines on the 2-mile, 60-60-80 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning just after 3:30 pm ET on FOX.



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Odds as of February 21st at Barstool Sportsbook.

Kyle Larson and Hendrick Motorsports Favorites on Sunday

Yes, Hendrick Motorsports won the last two races at Fontana (2020 and 2022). The track will always be called Auto Club. After this season, the course will be redone in time for 2025. This track is one that suits Kyle Larson well but more importantly, the Chevy setup. Ford cars qualify well (last two poles), but the Hendrick races faster later in the action.

Now, Larson, Elliott, William Byron, and Alex Bowman are listed anywhere from +700 to +1800. The DraftKings Sportsbook odds were a bit different with Larson and Elliott closer together (+650 and +700 respectively). Again, watch for Bowman and Byron here. Byron (+1600) can run well here and Bowman (+2000) did win in 2020.

Pala Casino 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Austin Cindric – Team Penske Tyler Reddick – Richard Childress Racing
2021 No Race No Race (COVID) No Race
2020 Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Clint Bowyer– Stewart-Haas Racing Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports Racing
2019 Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing Austin Dillon – Richard Childress Racing Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing
2018 Martin Truex Jr. – Furniture Row Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Furniture Row Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Furniture Row Racing

The Points Season Still in Its Infancy

Sports bettors believe in Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson this week. On the other hand,  the NASCAR Cup Series odds are in their beginning stages. Remember, Fontana is a way different course compared to Daytona. Expect adjustments to be made even compared to last year here. Yes, Joey Logano leads the points race after race number one.

Technically, Ford was right on schedule last week late in the race. Joey Logano got unlucky in the end as Chevy, err Stenhouse Jr., was at the right place at the right time. Again, the 2022 Cup Series winner is in good position for Sunday. He has a top-five and top-ten result his last two trips at Fontana.

Qualifying may be dominated by Ford here. The past two events have seen the manufacturer be just a little faster.

Pala Casino 400 Predictions & Picks

So, the weather expects to start drying out on Sunday with temperatures near 50. Rain may impact qualifying and practice, however.

Last year’s race featured 12 cautions totaling 59 laps. There were nine drivers who led the race and 32 lead changes.

There may be too much focus on Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. Taking a shot with William Byron or Alex Bowman may be enticing.

Again, watch the weather reports. Things could change quickly as it is Southern California. Just because the forecast is gloomy does not mean it will stay that way.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: William Byron to Win (+1600 – Barstool)
  • Other Contenders: Kyle Larson (+700), Joey Logano (+1200), Denny Hamlin (+1000), Kyle Busch (+1000)
  • Longshots:  Alex Bowman (+2000), Chase Briscoe (+4000), Ryan Preece (+5000)


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