2018 FIFA World Cup Round of 16: Russia Look to Pull Upset Over Spain

• Hosts Russia kick off with Group B winners Spain at 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday, July 1
• Can Diego Costa lead Spain to victory and stay in the race for the Golden Boot?
• Will Russia rebound after a lopsided 3-0 defeat?

Spain meet tournament hosts Russia on Sunday morning (July 1 at 10am EST) in Round of 16 play. La Roja topped Group B with a 1-2-0 record and five points. Spain opened the tournament with a 3-3 draw against Portugal, followed by a 1-0 win over Iran and 2-2 draw with Morocco.

The Spaniards are veterans of the World Cup, having qualified for the past 11 tournaments. While they failed to make it out of the Group Stage in 2014, they lifted the trophy as champions in South Africa in 2010.

Russia started the tournament strong with 5-0 and 3-1 wins over Saudi Arabia and Egypt. In their final Group Stage match against stiffer competition, they fell 3-0 to Uruguay. Russia finished the Group Stage in second place in Group A behind Uruguay on six points.

The Russians have limited recent World Cup history. They did participate in 2014 but failed to advance past the Group Stage. Prior, they managed to qualify but not advance in each of the 2002, 1994 and 1990. The last time they reached the Round of 16 was in 1986 as the Soviet Union where they lost 4-3 to Belgium.

23 Games and Counting

23. That’s the number of international matches in a row in which Spain have gone without losing. This counts World Cup matches, qualifiers and friendlies. During this run they are 15-8-0. Their last loss came back on June 27, 2016 during the Euros in a 2-0 defeat to Italy.

Spain are experienced and have class all over the pitch. Their possession-based play style is well documented and it’s continued in this tournament as well. Over their three Group Stage matches Spain held 67, 78 and 75% possession. They have also completed the most passes in the tournament with 2,089.

Diego Costa has led the line up front with three goals. This ties him for fourth overall in tournament scoring with Russia’s Denis Cheryshev.

Spain may have topped their group and their talent is unquestioned, however, they’ve not had it all their way in World Cup 2018. A narrow win over Iran and a 91′ minute game-tying goal against Morocco are hardly the sort of results Spanish fans have become used to.

In Russia, they’ll come up against a team with a better record, as well as more goals scored and less allowed. Five of their eight goals may have come against the lowly Saudis, but Russia has still looked strong in reaching the Round of 16.

Their confidence will have been shaken after their final Group Stage match which saw them fall 3-0 to Uruguay. The Uruguayans were the first real test for Russia against top competition. To be fair this one was over early, as Uruguay struck in the 10′ minute, before Russia conceded an own goal in the 23′ and took a red card in the 36′.

Despite being a man down they still fought hard and kept the match 2-0 until the 91′ minute when Edinson Cavani opened his scoring account in the tournament.

Russia will be buoyed by knowing in their last head-to-head match with Spain, a friendly back in November, they were able to keep pace in a 3-3 draw.

World Cup Stats

Betting Advice

Pick: Spain -170
Pick: Diego Costa Anytime Goal Scorer +115 

Russia will have the home crowd behind them and can be proud of what they’ve accomplished in reaching the Round of 16. However the ride ends here. There is just too big of a gulf in class and experience between these two.

Oddsmakers now have Spain as the second favorites to lift the World Cup and for good reason. Russia will likely come out strong and full of energy but Spain’s ticky tacka passing will eventually tire them out.

When you consider the possession Spain will likely have in this match and the fact they have the fourth-most attempts on goal of any team, Spanish strikers, including Diego Costa should have ample opportunities.

Russia’s high-scoring offence may be deceiving as despite having the second-most goals overall, they sit 28th in shots. Of the teams behind them in Denmark, Colombia, Panama and Iran—two are already out of the tournament.

Spain vs Russia