2020 MLS Season Preview: LAFC Early Favorites to Win MLS Cup

• The 25th MLS season kicks off on Saturday, February 29, 2020
• LAFC open season as +350 favorites to win MLS Cup, while Atlanta United are given the best odds of any Eastern Conference team at +550
• Read on for MLS Cup odds and predictions for the top contenders and longshots this season

The 25th MLS season is here with 13 matches kicking off over February 29 and March 1.

The league continues to evolve and expand with two new franchises joining for the 2020 MLS season. They include USL side Nashville SC who have built their roster on strong defense, and David Beckham’s entirely new Inter Miami CF who’ll aim for a more attacking approach, highlighted by DP signing Rodolfo Pizarro up front.

After a record-breaking year, LAFC are clear favorites for MLS Cup, but several teams return strong rosters or have improved in the offseason. Many have opened up their wallets for record transfer fees to bring in top-end talent over the past few months. Let’s take a look at some of the top contenders and longshots to win MLS Cup 2020.

Odds to Win the MLS Cup 2020

Odds taken on Feb. 19

Though most teams are preparing to kick off the competitive portion of their seasons next weekend, several teams play this week and next in the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL). Those teams being: LAFC, Atlanta, NYCFC, Seattle and Montreal.

Eastern Conference Contenders

In the East, this conversation has to begin with each of New York City FC, Atlanta United and Toronto FC. All three have odds of +900 or shorter, with 2018 champions Atlanta United leading the way at +550. Atlanta came up short in the playoffs last year, but still won three trophies over a nine-month span which included the 2018 title, US Open Cup and Campeones Cup. Josef Martinez was once again phenomenal for The Five Stripes with 27 goals, good for third overall in league scoring. He now has 77 goals in 80 starts for Atlanta.

There are still plenty of stars on this team, but a mass overhaul of the roster has taken place with stalwarts like Darlington Nagbe, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez, Julian Gressel, Hector Villalba and Michael Parkhurst departing.

Talkin’ Julian Gressel trade on @Extratime yesterday. Feeling from who I've spoke with is that it's not an unreasonable sum … even if he does end up predominantly playing right back (which is very much not a definite thing) pic.twitter.com/X65SvoPrJi

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) January 24, 2020

NYCFC finished first in the East in 2019 and lost just once at home all season. They scored 63 goals (2nd), conceded only 42 (4th) and had the second-best goal differential in MLS at +21. They bring back practically their whole team, minus head coach Domenec Torrent. In comes Ronny Deila with little time to work with his new side that starts CCL play on Thursday. Deila has won two titles in Celtic and another with Stromsgodset in Norway. However, his latest coaching stop sees him leaving from a 10th place Norwegian side in Valerenga. Not sure if that warrants a job coaching with City Football Group, but we’ll soon see.

For the 2020 season, San Jose, NYCFC, and Toronto lead the way, returning players accounting for 90% of minutes played. Chicago is only returning 51%. https://t.co/IzwiUd6LYI pic.twitter.com/toN4nYpJx1

— Eliot McKinley (@etmckinley) February 4, 2020

On that note of returning players, TFC are right behind New York in team continuity for 2020. Outside of a few TFC II promotions, their lone offseason acquisition comes in the form of TAM signing Pablo Piatti. Piatti is coming off a knee injury but has 48 goals and 42 assists across nearly 300 games with Espanyol, Almeria and Valencia in Spain. He also has Champions League and Europa League experience.

Video: Why Pablo Piatti now for Toronto FC: #tfclive pic.twitter.com/je8ZIsfkMd

— Kristian Jack (@KristianJack) February 7, 2020

Otherwise, TFC return a solid group that went to the finals for the third time in four years. They’ll need to weather the storm of missing captain Michael Bradley until May or June after undergoing ankle surgery. But if they can, and if Jozy Altidore can avoid any longterm injuries (a big if), there’s no reason this team can’t contend for another Cup.

Longshots

Had I written this up when MLS odds were first released, the Crew would have fit this category even more so. Originally 80-1 odds, that quickly halved to 40-1 within a week of odds opening and has continued to shorten to 33-1. Columbus had an up and down season in 2019 which saw them start ok, go through a stretch which saw them win once in 15 matches and close the season with just two losses in their last 13 matches.

That was only good enough for 10th in the East, but that late-season success, moving into Year 2 with Caleb Porter on the sideline and additions like Darlington Nagbe, Fanendo Adi, Vito Wormgoor and club-record transfer Lucas Zelarayan have bettors giving the Crew a puncher’s chance. Zelarayan will be the team’s new number 10 and transfers from Liga MX’s Tigres after tallying 23 goals and 14 assists over four seasons.

Elsewhere, a full season with Bruce Arena at the helm, with the likes of a potent attack featuring Carles Gil, Gustavo Bou and new DP signing Adam Buksa, makes the New England Revolution an enticing bet at 25-1.

Western Conference Contenders

The West is led by reigning Supporter’s Shield winners and overall MLS Cup favorites Los Angeles FC. Bob Bradley’s side and star striker Carlos Vela smashed the MLS record books last season. They finished eight points higher than any team in the league (NYCFC) and a massive 16 points above the second-place team in the West. That being eventual MLS Cup winners Seattle.

Huge congratulations to @MLS history makers @LAFC and @11carlosV 👏Bob Bradley's side have broken all sorts of records this season, with ex-Arsenal striker Vela scoring most goals (34) in the regular season. Outstanding stuff, and great to aid their success 👌📊 pic.twitter.com/MfT3fFirIN

— STATSports (@statsports) October 7, 2019

Of course, the Sounders, who have reached the final in three of the past four years—winning twice, should also be in the mix once again. All the main characters return for the Sounders from an offensive standpoint in Jordan Morris, Raul Ruidiaz and Nicolas Lodeiro. New DP signing Joao Paulo has also been added to the midfield from Brazil.

If there are questions, they come in the defense which has seen several departures in Roman Torres, Brad Smith, Chad Marshall and Kim Kee-hee. Seattle has added Shane O’Neill at CB from Orlando and new TAM signing, Colombian, Yeimar Gomez Andrade from Union de Sante Fe in Argentina to likely pair as a starting CB with Xavier Arreaga.

"To have all three [Designated Players] from day one for the season, it’s, I think, a statement of intent on our part that we mean what we say."@SoundersFC are ready to take on #SCCL2020 with their new DP Joao Paulo: https://t.co/wy07CWsN2t // 📸: Seattle Sounders pic.twitter.com/IlO9BBUYOs

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) February 3, 2020

Though LAFC may be the leading MLS Cup favorites, their neighbors across town made the biggest offseason signing in Mexico’s all-time leading scorer Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez. The Galaxy are 10-1 to win MLS Cup and Chicarito steps right into the hole that was left by the now-departed-for-AC Milan Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Zlatan had 52 goals in 53 starts and 56 appearances for the Galaxy, so it’s certainly a big hole to fill. However, Ibra was/is also 38, played zero defense and commanded so much attention from his ‘own’ team, that LA’s strategy too often resorted to simply hoofing the ball into the box and hoping Zlatan could make something special happen.

Now very often he did. The Galaxy finished fifth and reached the conference semifinals. They also allowed 59 goals and were one of only two teams (New England) to reach the playoffs with a negative goal-differential. Chicharito is not Zlatan, but he doesn’t have to be.

He’s perfectly capable of producing plenty of offense on his own, and with a full season of Cristian Pavon and the addition of Aleksandar Katai, the Galaxy should have plenty of offense. I’m not convinced they’ve addressed their leaky defense enough, but they have added Emiliano Insua and Danilo Acosta to the backline. Barring some more additions or vast improvement defensively, I can see LA being involved in plenty of “Overs” once again.

Longshots

From a value perspective, you could do worse than placing a small bet on Sporting Kansas City. Yes, the same Kansas City that finished 11th last year. But, SKC are also just over a year removed from finishing first overall in the West and third in the league in 2018. Oddsmakers opened Sporting at an incredibly long 80-1, which was bet down to 66-1 and now 33-1.

Newcomer, SKC striker Alan Pulido praising competition level as a reason he chose MLS. Says he would love to be able to take the Golden Boot from fellow Mexican Carlos Vela #ForGloryForCity pic.twitter.com/UgHrz9pBa4

— Andy Deossa 🇨🇴 (@Andy_Deossa) January 16, 2020

I also like the look of the Portland Timbers. Portland were 2018 finalists in losing to Atlanta and were still playoff participants last year. Though they finished just sixth in the West and went out in the first round, they had the talent to finish much higher and go much deeper, but just couldn’t get it together down the stretch.

Diego Valeri is back under contract and on a more team-friendly TAM deal. That, plus the additions of Diego Chara’s brother (Yimmi) as a new DP in midfield, plus another DP signing at forward in Jaroslaw Niezgoda, as well as TAM forward acquisition Felipe Mora, makes the Timbers a great value bet at 28-1.

2020 MLS Cup Best Bets

It be foolish not to start with the team that ran away with the league last season. Even minus Vela’s 34 goals, Los Angeles FC still would have had 51. That’s still better than 10 other teams. Even with some regression, LAFC should still have home-field in the MLS Cup Playoffs at worse. It could be their year in 2020.

But if you want some better value I’d look to Toronto reaching the final again from the East at a better price of +900. Or alternatively, taking a strong look at the Timbers at longer odds.