MLS Golden Boot Odds Favor LAFC’s Carlos Vela (+375) and Diego Rossi (+450)

• MLS Golden Boot odds favor the winner coming from LAFC
• 2018 winner Josef Martínez is coming off an injury and has odds of +700
• Read on to see the odds for the favorites, contenders, longshots and our best bet to finish as top scorer this season

The 2021 MLS season kicks off later this week and that means the race to claim the MLS Golden Boot Award also gets rolling with plenty of candidates in line to finish as the league’s top goalscorer.

Without too many big-name offseason signings entering the league as of now, it’s a lot of familiar faces near the top of the odds board, regardless of how some of those names finished last season.

The LAFC duo of Carlos Vela and Diego Rossi are nearly co-favored, followed by Seattle’s Raul Ruidiaz and Atlanta’s Josef Martínez to round out the top four.

Will the winner come from this group or is there better value digging a little deeper down the board?

MLS Golden Boot Odds

Odds as of Apr 13 at DraftKings

The Favorites for MLS Golden Boot

When you’re the league’s highest-scoring team in each of the past two seasons and the second-highest scoring team in 2018 during your expansion year, it makes perfect sense to see LAFC’s Carlos Vela and Diego Rossi as the top-two favorites.

LAFC scored 68 goals in 2018, only two behind Atlanta’s 70, 85 goals in 2019, 22 more than second-place NYCFC and 47 last year, three more than Philadelphia.

22-year-old Diego Rossi is the youngest Golden Boot winner in MLS history 🌟

He makes it back-to-back Golden Boots for @LAFC pic.twitter.com/abRwRowVUq

— B/R Football (@brfootball) November 9, 2020

Vela may have only had four goals last season, but he missed plenty of time with a knee injury. Oddsmakers are clearly expecting him to return to 2019 form when he scored 34 goals and won the Golden Boot. Or even the 2018 form which saw him score 14 times. Fourteen is the exact amount of goals that Rossi tallied in last year’s COVID-shortened season, which saw him win the award.

The Injury. A Pandemic. Diligent Rehab.

402 Days.

The Return of the King.

Welcome back, Josef Martinez 👑😡 #ATLUTD pic.twitter.com/P8MtoumwME

— 𝘼𝙏𝙇 𝙐𝙏𝘿 𝙁𝙖𝙣 𝙏𝙑 🗣🎥 (@atlutdfantv) April 7, 2021

Atlanta United lead the league in goals in 2018, and Josef Martínez had plenty to do with that by scoring 34 goals and winning the Golden Boot. He scored another 27 in 2019, but he played just one game last season before suffering a torn ACL.

Josef is back and has already played in the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL). With a new coach in Gabriel Heinze who will hopefully restore some of Atlanta’s offensive swagger, Martínez will be looking to get back into the form which saw him score 82 goals in 92 regular season and playoff appearances for the Five Stripes from 2017-2019.

"It’s great to have him back and he’s going to score a lot of goals for us.” – @CristianRoldan on @RaulRuidiazM's return to training. https://t.co/WNrgb9crNE

— Sounder At Heart (@sounderatheart) April 8, 2021

Seattle’s Ruidiaz has scored double-digit regular-season goals in each of his three seasons in Seattle and he’s done so at an impressive rate. His ten goals in 2018 came in just 14 appearances, 11 goals in 2019 were in 22 and he scored 12 last year while playing 17 times. He’s also tallied nine goals in ten career playoff games for the Sounders as well.

Higuaín, Zardes, Ebobisse Among Contenders

When Inter Miami brought Gonzalo Higuaín to town last season they obviously had hopes that he could potentially be lifting this award with the Herons. Higuaín didn’t exactly hit the ground running last year, but then again that could be said for Miami as a whole. With a full offseason and regular season with the team, he certainly should be in line to add to his 238 career goals. He is though, now 33 and has not scored in double-digits since the 2017-18 season.

Gonzalo Higuain’s first goal for @InterMiamiCF last year was special 🎯

5️⃣0️⃣ days until MLS is back.

(Follow @MLS for more)pic.twitter.com/pIYIJsDhiJ

— B/R Football (@brfootball) February 26, 2021

Only one player finished with more goals than Columbus’ Gyasi Zardes last year and that was Rossi, the Golden Boot winner. Zardes finished second with 12 goals, tied alongside both Ruidiaz and Chicago’s Robert Berić. Columbus is stacked this year and their depth could allow Caleb Porter to manage the US international’s minutes. Speaking of, with international duty looming, meaning he’ll miss some time in MLS, I’d leave him off my ticket. This is also important to keep in mind for players like Rossi (Uruguay) and Ruidiaz (Peru) this summer.

Jeremy Ebobisse has continued to improve and looks to have grabbed the starting striker role. He was rolling last year prior to sustaining a concussion. With Sebastian Blanco injured for much of the regular season, the Timbers scoring charts looked pretty balanced at year’s end. Ebobisse had eight, so too did Diego Valeri, while Felipe Mora and Jaroslaw Niezgoda each had seven. Niezgoda is also recovering from an injury and will miss time this season. But when everyone is in the lineup, the goals could be spread out for the Timbers.

Past 10 MLS Golden Boot Winners

Longshots and Not Even On the List

Alejandro Pozuelo and Jozy Altidore find themselves on this list, but Pozuelo is more of a setup man and Jozy’s health is always a concern. You do have the added benefit with Pozuelo though in that he’ll be taking penalties and lead the league in PK attempts last year. Altidore already pulled up with a hamstring injury in TFC’s first CCL game against Leon. Expecting him to be leading the line for a full season seems unlikely.

Coming off an injury of his own, we haven’t seen young star Ayo Akinola yet for TFC in 2021, but he scored nine goals in just 15 matches last season. He also had the highest goals-per-90 at 0.76 according to FBRef. If he moves into a full-time starting role soon this season and doesn’t get sold, he could make an appearance in future updated odds and be worth a flier.

Jozy Altidore will compete with Ayo Akinola for the number nine spot in Chris Armas’ side. Akinola had 9 goals in 15 matches, as Altidore played in just 13 matches with 2 goals because of injuries. #toronto #torontofc #canada #canadian #soccer #soccerpodcast #mls pic.twitter.com/l2y2iH5xVu

— Stateside Soccer Show (@StatesideShow) March 22, 2021

New England isn’t getting a ton of love for MLS Cup. They’re +1800 at DraftKings, but still +2500 at some books. Neither is striker Gustavo Bou who is a wide +6600 for the Golden Boot. He missed some time last year and scored just five goals in 18 appearances, but stormed onto the scene in 2019 with nine goals in 14 matches. In 2020 he took the third-most shots in the league at 63. If Carles Gil stays healthy in the midfield and can pull the strings for the Revs’ offense, Bou should benefit.

The best value for your money may come from the middle of the odds board. Lucas Zelarayan (+2500) should put up plenty of stats with Columbus. While Alan Pulido (+2800) was Sporting Kansas City’s record-breaking transfer last year but only played in 12 games due to injury. He did score six goals in those games though.

Robert Berić from the spot. Automatic. pic.twitter.com/42Cyq8O1h3

— Chicago Fire FC (@ChicagoFire) April 10, 2021

Berić (+2800) was tied in second overall for goals last season and Javier Hernandez will surely be looking for an improved second year in MLS. There’s no more Cristian Pavon in LA (for now), so Chicharito needs to step up. But LA will also need to figure out how to use him effectively.

And if you want a newcomer, then Brenner is your guy. Arguably the biggest offseason addition to MLS this season, he looks to be the focal point of Cincinnati’s offense. The Brazilian youth international from Sao Paulo signed a contract worth reportedly $13-million. But I just can’t see Cincinnati producing the Golden Boot winner after what we’ve seen from them so far in MLS. But feel free to prove me wrong FCC.

São Paulo FC announces the departure of star striker Brenner to FC Cincinnati, in what's reported to be an eight-figure transfer. Take a look at what he's capable of doing 👀

🎥: https://t.co/cjhaVqfNl5 pic.twitter.com/NsNkWJaxx4

— Planet Fútbol (@si_soccer) February 5, 2021

MLS Golden Boot Best Bet

We can break down each player on this list for days, but when it comes down to it, barring a complete breakout year from someone further down or some serious injuries, the best bet has to be Vela.

He already made his return from injury towards the end of last year and looked no worse for wear. He and coach Bob Bradley will be looking to rebound after last season. LAFC looks stronger than ever and can still add another DP this season. They’re going to score goals and a lot of those are going to come from Vela.

But if you want to get a little more interesting with this, then my longshot bet is Berić in Chicago. The Fire didn’t make the playoffs last year, but they did lead the East in expected goals (xG) at 38.9. Only Seattle and LAFC had a higher xG in the league.

Berić was third in xG personally at 10.1, took the fourth-most shots with 60 and had the third-most shots on target at 27.

Best Bet: Carlos Vela (+375)
Longshot Bet: Robert Berić (+2800)