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Brentford vs Bournemouth Odds & Prediction – EFL Promotional Playoff Semifinals Leg 2

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

May 21, 2021 · 7:43 AM PDT

Brentford vs Bournemouth
Brentford's Marcus Forss, left, challenges for the ball with Leicester's Timothy Castagne during the English FA Cup fourth round soccer match between Brentford FC and Leicester City at Brentford Community stadium in London, Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
  • Brentford host Bournemouth in the second leg of their Promotional Playoff semifinal on Saturday, May 22nd at 7:30 am ET
  • Bournemouth pulled off the upset in the first leg at home thanks to an Arnaut Danjuma goal in the 55th minute, shortly after halftime
  • See the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

On Saturday, Brentford vs Bournemouth play the second leg of their highly anticipated Promotional Playoff semifinal. The game will be played at the Brentford Community Stadium, a ground that the Bees have only lost four times at in their last 40 tries. Despite their good record at home, Brentford have to make up a one goal deficit as a result from the first leg.

In the first stage of this match, Brentford simply did not take on their chances well enough. As the highest scoring side in the EFL Championship with Ivan Toney at their disposal, this team is expected to score goals in every game. Nonetheless, Brentford had 11 attempts in the game, but failed to convert on a single one. Thomas Frank’s side tried to work it in the middle, but it simply was not enough to get by the Cherries defensive unit.

Brentford vs Bournemouth Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Bournemouth vs Brentford BRE -0.5 (-105) | BOU -0.5 (-120) BRE -104 | BOU +275 | DRAW +245 Ov 2.5 (-112) | Un 2.5 (-112)

Odds as of May 20 at DraftKings

Unfortunately, that same defensive unit could be without one of their main pieces come the weekend. Steve Cook went off in the first leg due to injury and as a result, could miss out on the second half of this semifinal. The 30 year-old English defender has made 43 starts this season for Bournemouth, and his absence would surely be felt in the middle of their defense.

Can Bournemouth Swing Back Into the Premier League?

After spending just one year in the EFL Championship, finishing in sixth place, Bournemouth have a foreseeable path back into the top flight. Ninety minutes away from the Promotional Playoff Final, Jonathan Woodgate’s side really just has to hold onto their lead. However, it will not be easy against this Brentford side, who are immaculate at home.

Additionally, the loss of Steve Cook could really be what swings this game. Twenty-three year-old Chris Mepham will most likely be the replacement and his inexperience might just be what sends Bournemouth packing.

Brentford vs Bournemouth Statistics

Brentford
VS
Bournemouth
1.68 Goals per game 1.57
13.4 Shots per game 11.8
54.2% Possession % 55.8%
78.8% Passing % 78.5%

Regardless, if Bournemouth were to pick any team to be going up against in this situation, it would probably be Brentford every time. Brentford always seem to be cursed at this stage of the competition, losing a record amount of 12 times in the Football League playoffs. Adding on the fact that Brentford have never reached the Premier League, Bournemouth should be quite confident heading into this fixture.

 

Ivan Toney Needs to put in a Good Shift

Everyone knows, Ivan Toney is Brentford’s best player, and he has had a monstrous year to say the least. His 31 count goal tally does the talking for him, but penalties slight inflate that number. In fact, in the past couple months, the English forward has only scored twice from open play. While goal scoring is his main forte, Toney is also a great creator. His ten assists also marks a team high, meaning that most of the offensive revolves around him.

Toney failed to do much of anything in the first leg, and it showed. If Brentford want any chance of not only winning this match, but advancing to the final, it is imperative he shows up and puts in a shift for the Bees. Sergi Canos and Bryan Mbuemo are capable behind him, but Toney needs to be the one to get the team’s fifth gear started. If he does manage to will the team on, it could be exactly the match that could entice a big Premier League club to make a move for him in the summer.

Brentford vs Bournemouth Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the Brentford moneyline at -104. These odds still have very good value, and where Bournemouth won the first leg, it is nearly impossible to see them repeating the same feat in such quick succession. Brentford are also rarely held scoreless, and without Cook at the back, the Cherries will see their season fall apart come Sunday.

Pick: Brentford ML (-104)


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