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Euro 2020 Qualifying Group J Odds: Italy Listed as Odds-On Favorite

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 4:07 PM PDT

Italy manager Roberto Mancini
Italy manager Roberto Mancini will be hoping the Azzuri can live up to their status of favorites and win Group J of the Euro 2020 qualifiers. Photo by Nazionale Calcio (flickr) [CC License].
  • Group J qualification for Euro 2020 kicks off on Saturday, March 23rd
  • Are Italy deserved favorites to top the group?
  • Could Bosnia-Herzegovina or Greece cause an upset?

Euro 2020 Group J qualifiers kick off this week as teams compete for their places in next year’s tournament. 10 groups begin play with Italy listed as the odds-on favorite to win Group J with odds of -350.

Euro 2020 Qualifying Group J  Odds

Team Odds to Win Euro 2020 Group
Italy -350
Bosnia-Herzegovina +450
Greece +1400
Finland +1600
Armenia +10000
Liechtenstein +100000

*Odds taken 03/20/19

On paper this looks like Italy’s group to lose. However, the Italians are far removed from their glory days. Italy missed last year’s World Cup for the first time since 1958. While there’s little shame in finishing behind Spain in their qualification group, a playoff elimination to Sweden for a chance to reach the tournament was a massive blow to the Italian Soccer Federation.

Since the World Cup disappointment, their form has remained mediocre at best. In 11 matches they’ve lost only twice, yet won on only three occasions. Two of those wins came in friendlies at home to Saudi Arabia and the United States which is nothing to write home about.

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Their lone competitive win came on the road to Poland in the UEFA Nations League playing in League A. There, they finished second in Group 3 at 1-2-1 behind Portugal and ahead of Poland. In four games they scored twice and conceded twice as well.

Italian manager Roberto Mancini looks set to add some youth to the lineup during these qualifiers but that will be balanced out with the inclusion of Sampdoria’s Fabio Quagliarella. The 36-year-old is having a career-season and currently leads Serie A with 21 goals.

Quagliarella is having a career-season and currently leads Serie A with 21 goals.

Italy’s stiffest competition is expected to come from 35th ranked Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Dragons missed out on the World Cup themselves, but have lost just twice over their past 12 matches. Their most recent match, a 1-0 road loss to Spain back in November, ended a streak of nine matches undefeated.

Like most teams, many of their matches of late have come during friendlies. However, they had a strong Nations League showing in League B. At 3-1-0, they finished first in Group C ahead of Austria and Northern Ireland. They’ve now earned promotion into League A.

Will Greece or Finland Achieve Qualification from Euro 2020 Group J?

In the 45th ranked Greeks and 59th ranked Fins, Group J features two sides which participated in League C of the Nations League. Greece played their typical style; strong defense and little scoring. That style was good enough to split three wins and three losses in the Group 2 and finish third. They scored four times while allowing five.

Finland fared a bit better while playing in this same group. With a 4-0-2 record, they topped the group and have been promoted to League B. During Nations League play each team won on home soil in their head-to-head matches. Finland winning 2-0 at home and Greece by a 1-0 scoreline.

The familiarity within Group J doesn’t end there. Back in World Cup qualifying both Greece and Bosnia-Herzegovina competed in Group H. The teams drew both of their matches against one another; 1-1 in Greece and 0-0 in Bosnia.

Back in World Cup qualifying both Greece and Bosnia-Herzegovina drew both of their matches against one another; 1-1 in Greece and 0-0 in Bosnia.

While neither side managed to reach World Cup 2018, it was Greece who finished higher in second place with 19 points, compared to Bosnia-Herzegovina in third with 17 points. Greece went on to a playoff and fell to Croatia in their bid to qualify.

Meanwhile, the Fins were never close to advancing at 2-3-5 in fifth place in Group I.

The Real Longshots

The minnows of the group include Armenia and Liechtenstein who should be pretty familiar with each other. Both teams recently participated in Group 4 of League D in the Nations League.

Armenia was competitive in second place at 3-1-2 with 14 goals scored to eight allowed. Liechtenstein, meanwhile, finished at the bottom of the group at 1-1-4, scoring seven goals and conceding 12.

Neither were any more successful in trying to qualify for the World Cup. Armenia finished fifth in their group at 2-1-7.

Liechtenstein were complete cannon fodder, losing all 10 matches and being outscored 39-1.

Liechtenstein were complete cannon fodder, losing all 10 matches and being outscored 39-1. They will again face the Italians whom they shared a World Cup qualifying group with and lost by a combined score of 9-0.

Upsets Brewing in Group J

The top sides in Group J seem to have a couple things in common heading into the qualifiers. That’s familiarity with their opponents, along with lower scoring matches and unpredictability.

With their poor recent form and new faces being brought in to the squad, I can’t be confident in Italy at this price. Instead I’ll look to Bosnia-Herzegovina who seem to be in the best current form and offering a much better price.

Best Bet: Bosnia-Herzegovina (+450)

Our Euro 2020 Qualifying Coverage:

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