Upcoming Match-ups
Tmrw
2
May
6:30 PM
MIL
IND
+8
-8
215.5
9:00 PM
NY
PHI
+3
-3
201
Friday
3
May
1:00 PM
CLE
ORL
+4
-4
208.5
Saturday
4
May
1:00 PM
MIN
DEN
+4.5
-4.5
208.5

Euro 2020 Qualifying Odds: Group G Expected to Be Tightly Contested Between Poland & Austria

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 10:41 AM PDT

Team Poland
Poland was in Group H at the FIFA World Cup. Photo by Светлана Бекетова (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Group G qualification for Euro 2020 kicks off on Thursday March 21
  • Poland and Austria are heavy favorites to top the group
  • Is there value in an underdog spoiling the party?

Euro 2020 Group G qualifiers kick off this week as teams compete for their places in next year’s tournament. 10 groups begin play with Poland and Austria listed as heavy betting favorites to win Group G.

Euro 2020 Qualifying Group G Winner Odds

Team Odds
Poland +105
Austria +130
Slovenia +1000
Israel +1200
Macedonia +10000
Latvia +25000

*Odds taken 03/19/19

Poland and Austria Are Clear Favorites in Group G

Odds for the Group G winner are actually the tightest of any group in the qualifiers. Though Poland and Austria are clear favorites, the group lacks any real elite team. Poland is the highest ranked team by FIFA rankings at 20th, with Austria not far behind at 23rd.

Poland will by far have the best player in the group with Robert Lewandowski. However they’ve been in dreadful form since World Cup qualifiers ended in October of 2017.

Poland will need Lewandowski to be at his best. Lewy had eight Champions League goals for Bayern Munich before they were recently eliminated. He also leads the Bundesliga with 18 goals. In the lead-up to World Cup 2018 he led all players in goal scoring with Poland during European qualification.

But that’s where the positives for Poland ended. Poland failed to advance out of the group stage with only one win over Japan.

2024 UEFA Champions League Odds Tracker
Read More

Then in UEFA Nations League play, they played in League A and finished 0-2-2, to finish last in their group behind Portugal and Italy.

All told, with a couple friendlies in there as well, they’ve won just once over nine matches.

Austria’s Confidence is High

The Austrians look to pose the only solid threat to Poland topping Group G. Austria and Poland haven’t met since 2008 so there is no recent history for comparison.

Austria finished fourth in their World Cup qualifying group and failed to make the tournament. They faired better in the Nations League, finishing 2-1-1 in Group 3 of League B. Playing against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Northern Ireland wasn’t the stiffest of competition though, and while they allowed just two goals in four matches, they only scored three.

However, their confidence should be high entering Euro Cup qualification, knowing they’ve only lost three times over their past 15 matches.

Any Chance for Slovenia or Israel?

The 63rd ranked Slovenians are tipped as the most likely to pull an upset in the qualifiers for Euro 2020 Group G. They played in different groups, but Slovenia managed nearly the same performance as Austria in World Cup qualifying. Each finished with 15 points, fourth in their group and out of the tournament.

Slovenia played in League C of the Nations League, going winless in Group 3 at 0-3-3. They’re now relegated to League D. Overall they have one win in their past 11 matches.

Israel (92nd) is another side with finished fourth in their World Cup qualifying group but with only 12 points. The Nations League saw them go 2-0-2 for second in Group 1 of League C.

Could a Huge Upset Be in the Cards?

One side which should be in for a long qualification is 131st ranked Latvia. Latvia’s matches in the Nations League saw them finish 0-4-2 in League D’s Group 1. Despite playing in the tournament’s lowest league, they remained winless. In fact, Latvia has won just two games across their past 25 matches.

Fellow League D participant in the Nations League Macedonia were excellent in Group 4 finishing 5-0-1. They finished first in the group and held a plus-nine goal-differential. While playing against teams like Armenia, Gibraltar, and Liechtenstein is hardly anything to get excited about, Macedonia has proved capable of holding their own.

The Red Lynxes are ranked 71st by FIFA and have only lost twice over their past 17 matches.

The Red Lynxes are ranked 71st by FIFA and have only lost twice over their past 17 matches. While that includes some weaker opponents as well as friendlies, it also includes strong showings in World Cup qualifying. Macedonia defeated fellow Group G opponent Israel 2-1 on the road, lost at home just 2-1 to Spain, and 3-2 to Italy, and held the Italians to a 1-1 road draw.

Bet Lewy and Poland to Top Group G

I wanted to make a case for Austria here given Poland’s poor form of late.

But Poland is one of those teams who beat up on weaker opposition and fall flat when competition intensifies.

Regardless, with Lewandowski and Napoli’s Arkadiusz Milik, Poland should be able to score enough goals to win Group G.

While I wouldn’t put a large stake on it, Macedonia has proven capable of competing against top sides. At odds of +10000, they could be worth a small bet to upset the group.

Pick: Poland +105

Our Euro 2020 Qualifying Coverage:

Author Image