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Italy vs Argentina Odds & Prediction – 2022 Finalissima

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated May 31, 2022 · 12:00 PM PDT

Italy vs Argentina
Jun 30, 2018; Kazan, Russia; Argentina forward Lionel Messi (10) reacts in the round of 16 game against France during the FIFA World Cup 2018 at Kazan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Groothuis/Witters Sport via USA TODAY Sports
  • Italy and Argentina square off in the CONMEBOL-UEFA Cup of Champions on June 1st at 2:45 pm ET
  • The match is being played at Wembley Stadium in London, England
  • Get the Italy vs Argentina odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

The 2021/22 club football season has finally reached its close. Now, players and fans can fully turn their attention to Italy vs Argentina in the 2022 Finalissima.

The cup, also referred to as the CONMEBOL-UEFA Cup of Champions has only been played twice before. Essentially, the tie is a meeting between the most recent winners of the Euro and Copa America tournaments. Previously, the only two winners of the cup are France and Argentina after respective victories in 1985 and 1993.

Now, Italy and Argentina meet at Wembley Stadium in what should be a cracking duel between two giants of the game. Of course, Italy reached this final by beating England on their home turf in Euro 2020. Meanwhile, Argentina won the 2021 Copa America against Brazil, thanks to a lone Angel Di Maria finish.

Italy vs Argentina Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Italy +200
Argentina +165
Draw +190

Odds as of May 30th at Barstool Sportsbook


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Overall, this match is extremely difficult to call for a variety of reasons. In turn, the moneyline for all three results have plus odds. However, Argentina does look to have a slight advantage in the books with odds of +165. This means that Argentina has an implied winning probably of 37.74%, while Italy have a 33.33% chance.

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Furthermore, goals are surely not to be expected in this one. In fact, the under on 2.5 goals is juiced to -190. Although, this does make sense given that in their last 20 combined matches they have only broken this barrier 40% of the time.

Finally, it might be time to look at futures for the 2022 World Cup odds. Currently, Argentina have odds of +1100 to win the tournament based in Qatar.

The Catastrophic Collapse of Gli Azzurri

On the other hand, Gli Azzurri will not be heading to the 2022 World Cup. Just last summer, Italy looked like they were truly back and better than ever under Roberto Mancini. Firstly, the aesthetic and smoothness of their game was euphoric for the neutral fan. But, the Italians were also able to see huge results over the line, beating the likes of Belgium, Spain and England.

Italy vs Argentina Statistics

1.40 Goals per game 1.50
1.84 Expected goals per game 1.63
0.90 Goals allowed per game 0.20
0.78 Expected goals allowed per game 0.96
61.0% Possession % 61.0%
30.0% Clean Sheet % 80.0%
16.0 Shots per game 13.20

*From last ten matches

However, the rest of the season left Italia fans saying “ma che fai”? Mancini’s men went on to only win two of their next seven matches in international competition. A final collapse versus North Macedonia was the nail in the Italian World Cup coffin.

Still, Italy are a world-class team with something to play for on Wednesday. Moreover, returning to Wembley should bring some happy memories for the players. If that is not enough, it is also Giorgio Chiellini’s final match in an Italy shirt; talk about a skipper to play for.

Argentina’s Defensive Wall

Regardless, Italy still needs to battle against an Argentina side that has completely evolved in the last couple of years. New faces like Emi Martinez and Cristian Romero have brightened up Lionel Scaloni’s team and defense. The fact that they have only conceded twice in their last ten matches tells you all you need to know about their backside improvements.

For once, it feels as though Lionel Messi does not have to carry this side all around the pitch. With the likes of Di Maria, Martinez, Lo Celso and De Paul around him, Messi can truly focus on creating.

While Italy’s defense is also a tall task, Argentina just has the better attack. The Azzurri can find themselves stagnant at times, and without Chiesa or Immobile in the team, it is hard to see them flourishing.

Italy vs Argentina Projected Lineups and Injuries

Italy Projected Lineup: Donnarumma, Emerson, Chiellini, Bonucci, Di Lorenzo, Verratti, Jorginho, Barella, Insigne, Bernardeschi, Belotti

Injuries & Suspensions: Immobile, Chiesa, Berardi, Pinamonti, Toloi & Castrovilli

Argentina Projected Lineup: Martinez, Acuna, Otamendi, Romeo, Molina, De Paul, Rodriguez, Lo Celso, Messi, Martinez, Di Maria

Injuries & Suspensions: Paredes

Italy vs Argentina Prediction

Overall, the best for this match is the Argentina moneyline with odds of +165. The Italians just do not have enough juice on offense. Ultimately, I see this being a really narrow scoreline that favors the previous winners late on.

Pick: Argentina ML (+165)

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