Liverpool vs Ajax Odds & Prediction – UCL Group Stage (Sept 13)
- Liverpool hosts Ajax in the second round of group stage play in the Champions League on Tuesday, September 13th, at 3:00 pm ET
- The match is being played at Anfield in Liverpool, England
- Get the Liverpool vs Ajax picks, odds analysis, and betting prediction below
Liverpool vs Ajax is surely a Champions League fixture to watch this Tuesday with Group A starting to heat up. Of course, Liverpool were thumped in their opening match, away to Napoli, by a score of 4-1. The match marked Liverpool’s joint-worst Champions League loss. In turn, fans and pundits alike are questioning what is exactly wrong with this Liverpool side, having won only two of their first seven competitive matches.
Conversely, Ajax come into this game off the back of a near-perfect Champions League start. They hosted Europa League runners-up, Rangers, and ran over them four goals to nil. More impressively, they held a high-flying Giovanni van Bronckhorst side to an xG of only 0.2.
Nonetheless, their work is still cut out for them against the Reds from Merseyside. These sides did play rather recently, in the group stage of the 2020-21 Champions League. Liverpool won both of those matches by a score of 1-0, thanks to goals respective goals from Curtis Jones and Nicolas Tagliafico (OG).
Liverpool vs Ajax Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | -195 |
| Ajax | +460 |
| Draw | +375 |
Odds as of September 11th at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on this Champions League match
Overall, Liverpool are still the heavy favorites in this Group A match, with moneyline odds of -195. With a rest this weekend due to the mourning of Queen Elizabeth II, Liverpool should come into this match with zero fatigue. If you want a Liverpool play with less juice, look towards betting on the spread. Currently, the Liverpool line at -1.5 has odds of -120.
Looking at the big picture, Liverpool also has the fourth best Champions League odds at +800.
Over/Under Odds & a Goal Scorer Prop
Furthermore, goals are sure to be expected in this battle between European giants. The line is set at 3.5 total goals, with the over having odds of just -105. Despite, Liverpool not being in the goals lately, aside from their 9-0 result vs Bournemouth, Tuesday feels different. Similar to a derby, a European night at Anfield is a wild card, and you can throw recent form out of the window.
A night game at Anfield. A European night.
It's just different.. 💫 #LIVVIL pic.twitter.com/5Pat24RhJ9
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) April 27, 2022
I would expect one of those goals to come directly from Diogo Jota. The Portuguese forward has anytime scoring odds of +350, which is so valuable. The Champions League was not his strongest competition last season, but he is coming off of injury and will be dying to get back in the mix.
The Impact of Thiago Alcantara
Basically, you can sum up Liverpool’s struggles this season in a few words: the midfield, intensity and creativity. Everything has been so bleak, which is why so many teams have run right through them, especially in the first half. Regardless, there is a solution that will help alleviate their struggles; his name is Thiago Alcantara.
Liverpool vs Ajax Statistics
| 2.50 | Goals per game | 3.50 |
| 2.62 | Expected goals per game | 2.44 |
| 1.00 | Goals allowed per game | 0.50 |
| 1.09 | Expected goals allowed per game | 0.92 |
| 69.0% | Possession % | 68.0% |
| 33.0% | Clean Sheet % | 67.0% |
| 20.5 | Shots per game | 19.0 |
*Stats are from 2022/23 domestic league play.
Luckily for Jurgen Klopp, Thiago is finally match fit after a slew of muscle injuries. If you need any proof of Thiago’s impact, watch his cameo against Napoli. His creativity opened the game up ever so slightly, but more importantly, his work rate helped set a much-needed standard. Moreover, the integration of Joel Matip and Kostas Tsimikas could help get this side’s intensity back to where it belongs.
ℹ️📈 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬𝗘𝗥 𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗔: Thiago Alcantara made THE MOST tackles (4) in the match against @SSCNapoli as well as having more ground duels (7) than the combined midfield 3 from #Liverpool (6).
He made 91% accurate passes, and 100% accurate long balls. pic.twitter.com/EjuRZNhyQP
— LFC Transfer Room (@LFCTransferRoom) September 7, 2022
Now, you also have to give respect Ajax here. De Godenzonen have won every game so far this season, while only conceding three times. Steven Bergwijn offers a real threat going forward against Trent Alexander-Arnold as well, so it is impossible to say they are hopeless here.
It's a different Steven Bergwijn we are seeing at Ajax 🔥
That's seven goals in his first six games and his European drought is finally over 😅#BBCFootball #UCL pic.twitter.com/yGGbvC4L77
— Match of the Day (@BBCMOTD) September 7, 2022
Liverpool vs Ajax Projected Lineups and Injuries
Liverpool Projected Lineup: Alisson, Tsimikas, Van Dijk, Matip, Alexander-Arnold, Fabinho, Thiago, Elliot, Diaz, Jota, Salah
Injuries & Absences: Henderson, Konate, Carvalho, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Kelleher, Keita, Ramsay, Jones
Ajax Projected Lineup: Pasveer, Blind, Bassey, Timber, Rensch, Alvarez, Taylor, Berghuis, Bergwijn, Kudus, Tadic
Injuries & Absences: Wijndal (questionable)
Liverpool vs Ajax Prediction
Finally, with my best bet, I am still riding the Liverpool -1.5 spread with odds of -120. I think this has the potential to be a bounce-back game for Klopp’s side, which allows them to climb back up the Group A table.
Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (-120)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
