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Man City vs PSG Odds & Prediction – Champions League Group Stage Matchday 5

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer

Nov 23, 2021 · 12:00 PM PST

Man City vs PSG
Manchester City's head coach Pep Guardiola gestures during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Everton at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Jon Super)
  • Manchester City and PSG matchup on Matchday 5 of the Champions League group stage
  • City holds a one-point lead over PSG at the top of Group A
  • Read below for the latest odds, betting preview and a pick

Manchester City and PSG meet at the Etihad Stadium on Matchday 5 of the Champions League group stage. This clash on Wednesday, November, 24th comes with these sides occupying the top two spots in Group A. A victory for either team will confirm their spot in the last 16, and Manchester City can guarantee they win the group if they take all three points.

This is only the seventh meeting all-time between the two sides. PSG have only one win against City, though that victory came when they met on Matchday 2 of this group stage. City won both matches of their knockout tie last season, and PSG have slipped up in other group matches so far, drawing with Leipzig and Club Bruges.

Manchester City vs PSG Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Manchester City vs PSG MCI -1 (+100) | PSG +1 (-110) MCI -175 | PSG +450 | DRAW +350 Ov 3.5 (+135) | Un 3.5 (-165)

Odds as of Nov 23 at DraftKings

Team News

Manchester City remains without Kevin De Bruyne following his positive COVID-19 test. Bernardo Silva will likely join Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan in the midfield three. Ferran Torres is also sidelined for the visit of PSG, while it’s unclear if Jack Grealish will be available after sitting out the weekend win over Everton.

Raheem Sterling is expected to lead the line as he did in Paris. Ruben Dias should return to the lineup to partner John Stones at the heart of the defense, and Riyad Mahrez is likely to play on the right flank after coming off the bench at the weekend.

Mauricio Pochettino has his star trio available in attack, but he faces some uncertainty in defense. Gianluigi Donnarumma missed the weekend’s fixture with Nantes through gastroenteritis, which could lead to a start for Keylor Navas. Sergio Ramos didn’t play at the weekend and could slot into the backline alongside Marquinhos if Presnel Kimpembe isn’t fit to start.

Julian Draxler and Rafinha are confirmed absentees, but neither were likely to start anyway. Pochettino will continue with the midfield three of Marco Verratti, Idrissa Gueye and Leandro Paredes.

City to Dominate the Ball

Falling behind inside the first 10 minutes, City dominated possession when these teams matched up at the Parc des Princes. Pep Guardiola’s side managed 18 shots to PSG’s six, but Idrissa Gueye’s early effort and Lionel Messi wonder-strike were enough for Pochettino’s side to claim a 2-0 victory.

Converting possession and shot attempts into goals has proven a problem at times for City this season. Guardiola has stayed away from Gabriel Jesus in the Champions League, limiting the Brazilian to just 43 minutes across three substitute appearances. Sterling has scored just three goals in club action this term.

City have found the net 15 times in three Champions League group stage matches against Leipzig and Club Brugge, but PSG will present a much sterner test. While Guardiola’s team created chances in the French capital, they were unable to convert, and similar finishing issues could resurface on Wednesday. Potentially without De Bruyne and Grealish, the Sky Blues are missing two of their primary creators.

Pochettino does not have the personnel to instill his usual pressing. PSG are likely to sit deep at the Etihad as a result, allowing Neymar, Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe to work their magic in transition. The Ligue 1 champions have kept just one clean sheet in eight matches since their win over City – do they have what it takes to frustrate Guardiola’s side again?

Manchester City vs PSG Champions League Statistics

Manchester City
15 Goals scored 8
60.2% Average possession 55.4%
4 yellows, 0 reds Cards 11 yellows, 0 reds
19.5 Shots per match 8.5
63% Shots inside the area 53%
+2.34 Expected goal difference per 90 -0.09

Goals to Fly In

Over 3.5 has cashed in PSG’s last three matches. On chances alone, the Matchday 2 tie could have easily seen five or six goals. City is the overall leader in Champions League expected goals this term after ruthless attacking performances against Leipzig and Bruges.

While a draw is a solid result for the hosts, Guardiola is not going to set his team up to avoid defeat. There’s not much to lose for either side, and PSG’s defense is unlikely to contain City in the same way they did in Paris.

City have scored 31 goals in nine home matches this term. Perhaps Sterling has found his finishing boots after a goal at the weekend.

This should be a great game for the neutral – goals should fly in at both ends. There’s value on City to score over 2.5 at +145, but we’re taking over 3.5 on the total.

Pick: Over 3.5 total goals (+135)

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