Manchester United vs Sevilla Odds, Picks, Prediction – Europa League Leg 1
- Man United hosts Sevilla in the first leg of their Europa League quarterfinal tie on Thursday, April 13th, at 3:00 pm ET
- The Red Devils have yet to beat Sevilla in three competitive games since 2018
- Get our Manchester United vs Sevilla prediction and odds below
The Europa League quarterfinals kick off on Thursday, with Man United vs Sevilla highlighting the afternoon slate. Man United are looking to add to their 2022/23 trophy haul, which already includes silverware from England’s Carabao Cup. Of course, the last time the Red Devils played in the Europa League, they fell in the 2021 final to Spanish side, Villarreal. After a nearly perfect group stage this season, Erik ten Hag’s side beat Barcelona and Real Betis to reach this point in the competition and are favored in the Manchester United vs Sevilla prediction and odds.
On the other hand, Sevilla will enter this match with mixed levels of confidence. While they have a positive record against the hosts, their recent form has been quite honestly dreadful. In fact, the Sevillistas Rojiblancos are 3-2-5 in their last ten across all competitions. Moreover, they are also without a win in their last eleven European matches on the road. That simply does not bode well going up against a Man United side that flaunts a 24-3-2 record at Old Trafford. Nonetheless, it is worth noting they had to scrap past PSV Eindhoven and Fenerbahce to make it this far.
Man United vs Sevilla Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Man United | -255 |
| Sevilla | +700 |
| Draw | +400 |
All in all, the moneyline is heavily swayed in Man United’s direction with juiced odds of -255. This equates to a 71.8% implied win probability, which is probably slightly overstated. Instead, you can get more value by betting on Man United -1.5, which has plus odds of +105. Currently, the only remaining English club also boasts the best Europa League odds to go on and win the competition with odds of +150.
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Man United vs Sevilla Over/Under
Additionally, this match is leaning towards the over on 2.5 goals with odds of -140, while the reverse option sits at +110. In their last 20 combined matches, the under on this goal total has hit 60% of the time, which does mean there is value here. While their last two head-to-head encounters were 2-1 affairs, I am expecting Thursday’s match to be tamer for my Man United vs Sevilla prediction.
13th March 2018. The day we dreamed at Old Trafford. 🌠 pic.twitter.com/vnKZLT7XAP
— Sevilla FC (@SevillaFC_ENG) April 11, 2023
One factor behind this thinking is the potential return of Yassine Bounou in net for Sevilla. The Moroccan goalkeeper has a post-shot expected goals per shot on target ratio of 0.33, which puts him in the 95th percentile of goalkeepers in Europe’s top five leagues. We all witnesses his magic in the 2022 World Cup and I would not be surprised to see it again this week.
Man United vs Sevilla Props – Even Money on Man United Clean Sheet
Another play I really like in this game is the Man United clean sheet at +100. Fifty-percent of their ten European contests this season have ended with a clean sheet, on top of keeping four clean sheets over their last six contests. From an offensive perspective, Sevilla are extremely mediocre, only creating 0.76 expected goals per game in Europe this season. This makes them highly unlikely to challenge a back line of Lisandro Martinez, Raphael Varane and David De Gea.
Man United vs Sevilla Projected Lineups and Injuries
Man United Projected Lineup: De Gea, Malacia, Martinez, Varane, Dalot, McTominay, Casemiro, Fernandes, Sancho, Martial, Antony
Major Injuries & Absences: Rashford (questionable), Shaw, Garnacho, van de Beek, Heaton,
Sevilla Projected Lineup: Bounou, Acuna, Gudelj, Nianzou, Montiel, Navas, Rakitic, Fernando, Lamela, Torres, En-Nesyri
Major Injuries & Absences: Jordan, Corona, Gueye
How United Will Cope Without Rashford
Regardless, it needs to be stated that Marcus Rashford’s absence in this game will have a negative impact for ten Hag. How negative that impact is depends on how well a makeshift front three of Sancho, Martial and Antony can play together. The only goal scored by that trio in their last five games came in the last match against Everton, thanks to Martial.
Man United vs Sevilla Head-to-Head Statistics
| 1.90 | Goals per game | 1.10 |
| 2.12 | Expected goals per game | 0.76 |
| 0.70 | Goals allowed per game | 1.50 |
| 0.77 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.57 |
| 59.4% | Possession % | 49.7% |
| 50.0% | Clean Sheet % | 40.0% |
| 18.5 | Shots per game | 10.6 |
| W-W-L-W-W | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | D-W-L-L-W |
Stats in the table from 2022/23 European play.
If the three do not find a way to beat Bounou in goal, it could take an individual effort to shake the score line. Bruno Fernandes and Scott McTominay, who has had his shooting boots on as of late, are a couple players that could make a difference in this one. Overall, I would like to think that United have enough big names on the team sheet to slide past a struggling Sevilla side.
Scott McTominay is in fine goal-scoring form! 🙌
📺: @USANetwork | #MUNEVE pic.twitter.com/L6WcwJnC6U
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) April 8, 2023
Man United vs Sevilla Prediction
At the end of the day, I will be riding with a Man United clean sheet and under 2.5 total goals for our Man United vs Sevilla prediction.
Man United vs Sevilla Picks: Man United clean sheet (+100), Under 2.5 total goals (+110)
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See more of today’s Europa League picks here:
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction
- Juventus vs Sporting Prediction
- Feyenoord vs Roma Prediction
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
