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Manchester City Odds-On Favorite to Win EPL Despite Trailing Liverpool

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Mar 28, 2020 · 2:02 PM PDT

Jurgen Klopp Liverpool
Liverpool coach Jurgen Klopp will be hoping to rebound from his team's first dropped points last week. Photo by Thomas Rodenbücher (Flickr) [CC License]
  • We are entering matchday 29 of 38 in the English Premier League on Saturday, March 2
  • Liverpool is the current leader with 69 points
  • Manchester City is the betting favorite to win the EPL, though

Liverpool’s emphatic 5-0  midweek win over Watford was an act of defiance when they needed it most.

After having drawn four of their last five games in all competitions, questions had started to be asked in the English press around the Reds’ title credentials, but this win has reaffirmed the belief on Merseyside that this is destined to be their year.

But online sports betting sites would say otherwise.

2019 Odds to Win English Premier League

Team Points as at 03/01/19 Odds to win the EPL
Manchester City 68 -190
Liverpool 69 +150
Tottenham 60 +15000
Manchester Utd 55 +25000
Chelsea 53 +100000
Arsenal 56 +150000

*Odds taken March 1

The odds to win the EPL for the two clubs, Manchester City and Liverpool, were tighter the last time we checked in on February 4. Man City was just -120, compared to Liverpool at +110.

Liverpool was the favorite back on January 4, as well, sporting -120 odds.

Man City Snapping at Their Heels

Standing in the Reds’ way are the reigning champions, Manchester City, who have been relentless in their pursuit of Liverpool.

The Citizens, as they are known, are looking to win consecutive titles for the first time in their history and are in the incredible position of chasing silverware on four fronts. At the weekend they secured the first of the quartet of trophies when they beat Chelsea at Wembley in the Carabao Cup Final after a penalty shootout.

They are also in great shape in the UEFA Champions League and the other English domestic trophy, the FA Cup.

In the UEFA Champions League Round of 16, City lead 3-2 over German side Schalke 04 with the second leg to come at their Etihad Stadium on March 12, and in the FA Cup, they await a quarter-final tie at Swansea.

So in terms of their two remaining cup competitions, their fate, at least for now, appears to be very much in their own hands.

In the EPL, while it appears to have boiled down to a two-horse race, between them and Liverpool, the Reds have the edge as with ten games to go they hold a narrow one-point lead.

Reds on The March

In the 1970s and 1980s, Liverpool Football Club were the Kings of English football.

In addition to winning three European Cups (the forerunner of the UEFA Champions League), they won the English league title no less than 11 times – making it 18 in total. Unfortunately for them, they haven’t won it since 1989/90, all of which makes this season so huge for them.

They are doing it the hard way, though, and what is now a single point lead was up to nine just over a month ago. However, the confidence gained from the 5-0 win over Watford cannot be overestimated, especially as it signaled a return to form of Senegalese striker Saido Mane and influential Dutch defender Virgil van Dyck.

City Still Favorites

Manchester City are still odds-on favorites, despite Liverpool heading the table, and for that reason we think with the Reds in plus-odds there is value to be had.

If we look at both teams’ remaining ten fixtures, then there is very little to choose between the mix of respective home/away games. Also the number of top six teams they both have to face is like-for-like, so it really does boil down to a straight shoot out.

If you’d have asked us ten days ago who else was in with an outside chance of the EPL title, we’d have said Tottenham, but two consecutive defeats have effectively ended any lingering hopes.

So, yes, the value is very much with Liverpool and at +150 we consider it well worth a shot.

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