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Mexico vs Panama Odds & Prediction – Gold Cup Final

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Jul 16, 2023 · 5:00 AM PDT

Panama defender Ivan Anderson (25)
Jul 12, 2023; San Diego, Californina, USA; Panama defender Ivan Anderson (25) is embraced by midfielder Adalberto Carrasquilla (8) after scoring a goal against the United States during extra time at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s Mexico vs Panama in the CONCACAF final on Sunday, July 16
  • This is Mexico’s 11th Gold Cup final, but only the third for Panama
  • Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

The CONCACAF Gold Cup final takes place on Sunday, July 16, with Mexico vs Panama kicking off in Inglewood’s SoFi Stadium at 7:30 pm ET.

For Panama, this is their third Gold Cup final – their first in a decade – which was earned after sensationally beating the USA on penalties. For Mexico, this will be their 11th final, achieved via a comfortable 3-0 semifinal win over Jamaica.

We preview our Mexico vs Panama picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Mexico vs Panama Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Mexico -150
Panama +500
Draw +270

Mexico start this massive game as the bookmakers’ hot favorites and are listed at -150 with an implied win probability of 60%. Panama are big outsiders to win their first-ever Gold Cup and are pitched at +500 – implied at just 17%. The draw inside 90 minutes is priced at +270 in the Mexico vs Panama odds and is implied at 27%.


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Mexico vs Panama Over/Under and Spread

Based on a tipping point of 2.5 goals, the bookies have listed the over at +135 and the under at a less attractive -170, which suggests a tight, low-scoring final of few chances.

Mexico vs Panama Preview

This has been a slow-burner of a year for Mexico but they arrive at this final in good shape. After a disappointing 2022 World Cup, in which they failed to make it beyond the group stage for the first time since 1994, their lukewarm form saw them make a meek semifinal exit in the Nations League, which led to the sacking of manager Diego Cocca.

His interim replacement, Jaime Lozano, has had a positive impact despite some early criticism and has restored some belief in a squad that looked short of both ideas and confidence; winning four of his five matches in charge.

The Record Books Favor Mexico

Mexico’s record in Gold Cup finals is impressive, with 8 wins from 10, albeit one of those two losses came last time out, in 2021, when they were beaten 1-0 after extra time by the USA. If they lose again on Sunday it will be the first time they have lost back-to-back finals.

Well worth noting is that they also have an outstanding record against Panama and are unbeaten in their last 13 meetings. The last time the Panamnians beat them was back in 2013.

Christiansen the Difference-Maker for Panama

Thomas Christiansen was appointed manager of Panama in 2020 and since then has seen his side steadily improve, culminating in them reaching only their third-ever Gold Cup final. Prior to this year, their best performances came in 2005 and 2013 when they were beaten finalists.

But while their thrilling run in this year’s tournament has come as a surprise to many, those who have followed the Panamanians closely have seen this coming. It’s been no fluke, and despite them only beating the USA on penalties, it was a win that was deserved based on 120 minutes of soccer.

Bed Omens to Overcome

Panama will believe that if they can match and then overcome the US over 120 minutes, they can do the same to Mexico but they first have to overcome a poor recent record against the Mexicans (as described above) and the fact that in their previous two Gold Cup finals they have not found the net.

But, if they can put these bad omens aside and find their A-game, they could yet become the first Central American team to win the Gold Cup.

Mexico vs Panama Team Lineups and Injuries

Mexico Projected Lineup: Ochoa, Sanchez (J), Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo, Antuna, Chavez, Romo, Pineda, Sanchez (J), Martin.

Injuries & absences: None.

Panama Projected Lineup: Mosquera, Escobar, Cummings, Andrade, Barcenas, Carrasquilla, Godoy, Davis, Fajardo, Quintero, Diaz.

Injuries & absences: None.

Mexico vs Panama Head-to-Head Stats

4-0-1 CONCACAF 2023 record 3-2-0
12 / 2 Goals for / against 11 / 5
14 FIFA ranking 57
2 CONCACAF ranking 5
Winners (x8) Previous best at Gold Cup Runners-up (x2)
25 Previous Gold Cup appearances 11
WWWLWW Form Guide (all comps) LWWDWW

Mexico vs Panama Prediction

Mexico’s record Gold Cup record alone is sufficient for them to start as odds-on favorites, but the turnaround engineered by Lozano has been quite something. Equally, Panama are also in a rich vein of form and mustn’t be underestimated.

Odds of 5/1 for the Panama win are almost too good to ignore, and so a wager on them being the first Central American team to win the Gold Cup is worth considering, but for me the value lies with the draw after 90 minutes.

Jamaica vs Mexico Picks: The draw (+270) 


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