Napoli vs Ajax Odds & Prediction – Champions League Group Stage
- Napoli hosts Ajax in matchday four of six in the Champions League on Wednesday, October 12th at 12:45 pm ET
- Napoli romped Ajax in the reverse fixture, topping the hosts by a score of 6-1
- Get the Napoli vs Ajax picks and betting predictions below
On Wednesday afternoon, Napoli could clinch their spot in the knockout rounds with a win against Ajax. Of course, Gli Azzurri have taken all nine Group A points so far, mustering up a terrific +11 goal difference. This is the second rendition of Napoli vs Ajax in just eight days and it will be hard for Luciano Spalletti, to ask anything more of his side.
In fact, Napoli’s 6-1 triumph last Tuesday marked Ajax’s biggest-ever European defeat. It was a true masterclass in finishing from the Serie A league leaders, with five different players etching their names on the score sheet. Actually, this offensive fizz from Napoli of late is still quite surprising, considering their recent turnover and the absence of Victor Osimhen up top. Nonetheless, players like Giacoma Raspadori and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have really stepped up in that forward line.
Napoli vs Ajax Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Napoli | -170 |
| Ajax | +410 |
| Draw | +340 |
Odds as of October 11 from Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this Champions League match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.
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Meanwhile, Ajax desperately needs a win if they want to keep pace with Liverpool in second place. With two home matches already wasted, time is ticking for Alfred Schreuder’s side. Dusan Tadic will miss Wednesday’s match on suspension, which makes their task even more unnerving.
Napoli are favorites, with moneyline odds of -170. Considering the fact that Ajax only have one win in their last five matches across all competitions, this is quite fair. Moreover, Napoli are unbeaten in nine consecutive Champions League matches at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Napoli vs Ajax Over/Under
Furthermore, I would expect loads of goals, just like the reverse fixture. Napoli topped their six-goal showcase with a 4-1 win over Cremonese this weekend, proving they just cannot stop scoring.
🏥 Rrahmani suffers tendon injury in left thighhttps://t.co/umtX90DWGx
— Official SSC Napoli (@en_sscnapoli) October 11, 2022
On top of this, Amir Rrahmani will be missing from the Napoli defense. This absence provides a small hole for Ajax to target, with Leo Ostigard being deputized in his position. The current odds for the over on 3.5 total goals sits at +120, which is great value.
Napoli vs Ajax Statistics
| 4.33 | Goals per game | 2.00 |
| 3.70 | Expected goals per game | 1.30 |
| 0.66 | Goals allowed per game | 2.66 |
| 1.10 | Expected goals allowed per game | 2.06 |
| 50.6% | Possession % | 55.0% |
| 33.3% | Clean Sheet % | 33.3% |
| 23.0 | Shots per game | 9.30 |
Stats in table from 2022-23 Champions League group stage play.
Raspadori to Score Odds
The other bet I have my eyes on is for Raspadori to score anytime with odds of +130. The Italian has four goals in five games for club and country and already has three goals in the Champions League this season. With Osimhen still questionable, his performance could lock up Napoli’s place in the knockout rounds.
🇮🇹 Giacomo Raspadori (22) for @sscnapoli and Italy:
🔥 3 goals in 63 UCL minutes
🔥 2 goals in his last 2 caps for Italy
🔥 6 goals in his last 7 games for club and countryA breath of fresh air. 💪 pic.twitter.com/zTayF26r0d
— Football Wonderkids (@fbwonderkids) October 4, 2022
Napoli vs Ajax Projected Lineups and Injuries
Napoli Projected Lineup: Meret, Rui, Kim, Ostigard, Di Lorenzo, Zielinski, Lobotka, Anguissa, Kvaratskhelia, Raspadori, Lozano
Major Injuries & Absences: Osimhen (questionable), Rrahmani, Demme, Marfella
Ajax Projected Lineup: Pasveer, Blind, Bassey, Timber, Sanchez, Taylor, Alvarez, Berghuis, Kudus, Bergwijn, Brobbey
Major Injuries & Absences: Tadic, Rensch, Kaplan, Ihattaren
Napoli vs Ajax Prediction
All in all, I see Napoli vs Ajax being a one-sided contest. Now, this is not to say that Ajax are a bad side; they are more so just in a bad moment. A loss to AZ Alkmaar and draw to Go Ahead Eagles, puts them in second place of the Eredivisie and shows that their bad form is even reaching their domestic performances.
To boot, the fact that they are conceding 2.6 goals per match over their last five, does not bode well for them either. Frankly, this does make sense given their squad’s abundance of youth. Six of their 11 projected starters are under the age of 22, while Napoli only has two.
🇮🇹 All 𝟮𝟯 names for #napaja ⤸
✔️ Sánchez
✔️ Wijndal
❌ Kaplan
❌ Rensch#UCL— AFC Ajax (@AFCAjax) October 11, 2022
On the other hand, Napoli could not be further away from a sniff of bad form. They are still unbeaten and are slowly gathering popularity as one of the dark horses in the Champions League odds. Sadly, their moneyline odds against Ajax are just too juicy for me.
Instead, I will go back to the over on 3.5 total goals with +120 odds. Napoli’s offense is prolific, but they have conceded in four straight contests, and are averaging 4.4 total goals in their last five.
Pick: Over 3.5 total goals (+120)
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
