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England vs Netherlands Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Odds for Euro 2024 Semifinal

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Soccer News

Updated Jul 9, 2024 · 1:45 PM PDT

Netherlands defender Denzel Dumfries smiles after scoring a goal against the USA in the 2022 World Cup
Dec 3, 2022; Al Rayyan, Qatar; Netherlands defender Denzel Dumfries (22) reacts after scoring a goal against the United States of America during the second half of a round of sixteen match in the 2022 FIFA World Cup at Khalifa International Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
  • England and Netherlands meet in Dortmund on Wednesday for a berth it the Euro 2024 final
  • Six of the last eight head-to-head meetings between the teams ended in a draw after 90 minutes
  • Below, find my England vs Netherlands expert picks, predictions, and best betting odds for July 10

The semifinal that many neutrals were hoping for when the bracket was set has come to fruition as England (1-4-0) get set to face the Netherlands (3-1-1) at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund on Wednesday, July 10 (3:00 pm ET), with a berth in the Euro 2024 final on the line.

Though England haven’t looked their best at any point during their first five games of the tournament, they are slight favorites in the England vs Netherlands odds due to their pedigree.

England vs Netherlands Odds

Team Moneyline Total To Advance
England +165 Over 2.5 (+158) -134
Netherlands +220 Under 2.5 (-194) +110
Draw +175

An England victory in 90 minutes is listed at +165 with a Netherlands win at +220 and a full-time draw at just +175. England’s odds to advance to the final are sitting at -134. Netherlands is priced at +110 to reach the final

The over/under heavily favors under 2.5 goals (-194). Over 2.5 is currently +158.

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The winner of England vs Netherlands will advance to face the winner of Spain vs France in the 2024 Euro final on Sunday, July 14, at Olympiastadion Berlin. England are seeking their second straight appearance in the Euro final after falling to Italy on penalties in 2020. The Netherlands haven’t reached the final since 1988, when they beat the Soviet Union (2-0) for their one and only European triumph.

The Euro 2024 odds entering the semifinals list Spain as +191 favorites, on average, followed by England (+246) and France (+274), with the Netherlands the longest shot on the board at +450.

England Escapes Switzerland in Quarters

For 75  minutes on Saturday, England played a dreadfully boring nil-nil game with Switzerland before Breel Embolo poked home a cross to give the Swiss a 1-0 lead. Bukayo Saka, who was the most-dangerous England player throughout the game, pulled his team level just five minutes later on a seeing-eye shot from the top of the box that went post-and-in.

YouTube video

England blasted five near-perfect penalties past Yann Sommer after a scoreless extra time while Jordan Pickford’s save off Manuel Akanji on Switzerland’s first attempt proved the difference. Overall, there’s a strong case to be made that the Swiss were the better team and were more deserving of advancing.

Dutch Comeback to Beat Turkey

The Netherlands played one of their most-anemic halves of football in the first 45 against Turkey in the quarters. They didn’t generate a single shot on target or even a corner kick as Turkey took a 1-0 lead into the break. But their second-half performance was a complete 180. They controlled 58% of possession and put four shots on target, two of which beat Turkish keeper Mert Gunok en route to a 2-1 comeback victory.

YouTube video

Concerningly, Dutch goalie Bart Verbruggen was forced into a couple of victory-saving stops in the final ten minutes. Paired with the Netherlands’ 3-2 loss to Austria on the final matchday of the group stage, questions abound over the Dutch backline, which is supposed to be the strength of the team.

ENG vs NED: Recent Head-to-Head Results

Date Location Competition Score
Jun 6, 2019 Neutral (Portugal) Nations League NED 1-1 ENG (3-1 AET)
Mar 23, 2018 Netherlands Friendly NED 0-1 ENG
Mar 29, 2016 England Friendly ENG 1-2 NED
Feb 29, 2012 England Friendly ENG 2-3 NED
Aug 12, 2009 Netherlands Friendly NED 2-2 ENG
Nov 15, 2006 Netherlands Friendly NED 1-1 ENG
Feb 9, 2005 England Friendly ENG 0-0 NED
Feb 13, 2002 Netherlands Friendly NED 1-1 ENG

There isn’t much recent head-to-head history between England and the Netherlands, especially in competitive fixtures. The sides have met just once in the last five years, playing to a 1-1 full-time draw in Portugal in the semifinals of the 2019 UEFA Nations League before the Dutch advance 3-1 after extra time.

The previous eight matches were all friendlies, and six of the last eight overall have finished level after 90 minutes.

England vs Netherlands Expert Picks & Predictions

Two of the last three England games have gone to the half scoreless (vs Switzerland and Slovenia) and England hasn’t scored a first-half goal since their 1-1 draw with Denmark in the second group-stage game. In fact, England’s quarterfinal win over Switzerland didn’t see a shot on target in the first 45 minutes (and just 0.50 xGF combined between the two teams).

The Netherlands were playing a similarly low-event first half against Turkey last time out until Samet Akaydin headed home a sublime, inch-perfect cross in the 35th minute. Akaydin’s goal was the only shot on target in the first 45 minutes.

With even more on the line in the semis, and both teams facing a more dangerous attack, bettors should expect a cagey first half in which both teams play scared to concede.

Given the form that we’ve seen from both sides in the tournament, I think the wrong team is favored. The Dutch have had more lows than England, but their highs have been considerably higher. They have more speed in attack and have been getting higher-quality midfield play from Xavi Simons, Tijjani Reijnders, and Jerdy Schouten than England has from Declan Rice, Kobbie Mainoo, Conor Gallagher, and Trent Alexander-Arnold.

ENG vs NED picks:

  • First half under 0.5 (+142 at FanDuel)
  • Netherlands to advance (+110 at bet365)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 32-15-1 (+18.72 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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