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Serie A Matchday 30 Odds & Picks: Spezia vs Crotone, Udinese vs Torino & More

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer

Apr 8, 2021 · 5:01 PM PDT

Serie A Matchday 30
Spezia's Roberto Piccoli controls the ball during a Serie A soccer match between Tonino and Spezia, at the Olympic stadium in Turin, Italy, Saturday, Jan. 16, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Serie A Matchday 30 will be played from Saturday, April 10 – Monday, April 12, 2021
  • Two promoted sides in Spezia and Crotone will meet and be battling to avoid relegation to Serie B
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 30 here

Italy’s Serie A Matchday 30 kicks off with a relegation scrap between two newly-promoted sides when Spezia hosts Crotone at 9:00 am EST Saturday morning.

Two more matches will follow Saturday afternoon, with the card getting into full swing on Sunday with six matches, before concluding on Monday when Benevento hosts Sassuolo at 2:45 pm EST.

The midweek play saw two games take place on Wednesday to make up for previously postponed matches. Both home teams emerged victorious, with Inter Milan topping Sassuolo 2-1 and Juventus edging out Napoli by the same scoreline. All teams have now played 29 matches and with Inter’s win, they’ve stretched their lead to a commanding 11 points above second-place AC Milan for the Serie A title. They’ve also now won ten straight.

On Thursday, AS Roma was also in play, competing in the Europa League where they came away with a late 2-1 win in leg one of the quarterfinals against Ajax.

One match not mentioned below, but that has the potential for a high-scoring game is Sampdoria vs Napoli. Sampdoria has scored in five-straight, while Napoli has found the back of the net in 17 consecutive Serie A matches. Both rank in the top-10 when it comes to OVER 2.5 totals tickets cashing, both at 18-11. Additionally, when these two teams meet, 15-straight have seen at least two goals scored in their games.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 30 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 30 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Spezia vs Crotone -122 +280 +300
Parma vs AC Milan +425 +280 -155
Udinese vs Torino +125 +230 +225
Inter Milan vs Cagliari -435 +500 +1100
Juventus vs Genoa -420 +510 +1150
Sampdoria vs Napoli +360 +290 -143
Verona vs Lazio +275 +245 +100
Roma vs Bologna -155 +310 +390
Fiorentina vs Atalanta +415 +310 -167
Benevento vs Sassuolo +250 +265 +100

Odds as of Apr 8 at DraftKings

Spezia vs Crotone Prediction

Two newcomers meet at 9:00 am EST Saturday morning to kick off Serie A Matchday 30.

Last weekend Spezia fell 2-1 in Lazio and were unable to string together back-to-back wins after a 2-1 win over Cagliari the week prior. Vincenzo Italiano’s club now has just that single win in their past seven and sits 16th in the table with 29 points.

Crotone, sit rock-bottom in the table with 15 points and hopes of safety are quickly slipping away. Despite an impressive effort against Napoli last week where they scored three goals, including a brace from Simy, they still fell 4-3.  That leaves them with just a single win in 11 matches and a 1-0-10 (WDL) record in that time.

The earlier meeting this season saw Crotone run out to a 4-1 home win. Their two meetings in Serie B last year resulted in both teams winning on the road, and both by 2-1 results.

There’s plenty of reason to expect another high-scoring affair this weekend. These two teams lead Serie A in OVER 2.5 totals at 22-7. Crotone matches average 3.8 goals per game, while Spezia matches average 3.1.

Both teams have scored in each of the past four Spezia matches, and the OVER has cashed in six of seven. At home, Spezia has seven goals across the last four home matches, scoring in each match, but have also conceded in three of those four. Overall, they’ve found the back of the net in 11 of their 14 home dates this season.

Meanwhile, for Crotone, the OVER once again hit easily last week with seven combined goals in the Napoli match. It’s also cashed in each of their past five with scorelines reading: 4-3, 3-2, 3-2, 4-2 and 5-1.

Looking at expected goals allowed (xGA) at FBRef, Spezia has allowed 2.0 or higher in each of their past three and four of five. Crotone has allowed an xGA of 2.2 or higher in three-straight and four of five, with an xGA of 3.2 in two of those five matches. Overall these are the two worst teams in xGA on the season.

This will be a match that both expect (and need) to get points from. A draw could be acceptable for Spezia who are seven points above relegation, but Crotone will be going all-out for three points in an effort to close their current nine-point gap from safety.

Both teams to score at -162 looks as sure a bet as one could make in this match, but the extra-value of adding the OVER 2.5 at +105 would offer a better return.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-105) at Bet365

Udinese vs Torino Prediction

The two sides that have played to the UNDER (2.5 totals) the most are Udinese and Cagliari at 17-12. They’ll meet at 2:45 pm EST Saturday afternoon in Serie A Matchday 30 play.

At home, no team is even close to Udinese, whose home dates have gone UNDER the total at 11-3. Even Cagliari, next in line, is just 9-6.

In any Udinese match, I Bianconeri have played to the UNDER in five of six, the only exception being their most recent match, a 3-2 road defeat to Atalanta. At home, UNDER bettors have naturally been cleaning up, and would’ve profited in each of the past six. In fact, Udinese has conceded just twice at home during that span. And that includes matches against Lazio, Sassuolo, Inter and Atalanta.

Udinese may only rank eighth in total goals conceded (39), but when it comes to xGA, they rank a very impressive fifth with an xGA of 33.0.

Torino enters this match just above the relegation zone and will be buoyed by a strong 2-2 draw with Juventus last week in the Turin Derby. Their form has been a bit unpredictable of late. After five straight draws, most recently they are 2-1-3 (WDL). Away from home, Torino actually has a stronger record than at home, with three wins, compared to just one at the Stadio Olimpico. Those wins have come against Genoa, Parma and Cagliari, all sides ranked 14th or lower. At 13th, Udinese certainly would fall near that category, but would still be the highest-ranked team II Toro would have defeated all season.

A draw could be in the cards, but a 1-1 or 1-0 result, either way, looks likely, and that will put me on the UNDER.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-152)

Hellas Verona vs Lazio Prediction

One of three 9:00 am EST matches on Sunday morning, sees eighth-place Hellas Verona hosting sixth-place Lazio.

Verona at home is usually a safe bet to find the scoresheet. They’ve done so in ten of 14 home dates. However, they’ve failed to do so in each of their past two, both 2-0 losses to Atalanta and Milan. The two other matches where they didn’t score came against Sassuolo and Genoa, so three of those four are against top nine sides, exactly where Lazio resides as well.

Lazio has been in strong form and are riding a three-match win streak after last week’s 2-1 win over Spezia. Across their last 13, Lazio is 10-0-3 (WDL). But their defense has not been impenetrable, as evidenced by conceding to Spezia, twice to Crotone, three to Juventus and twice to Bologna—all in their past five.

Across their last ten away matches, Lazio has also conceded in eight. Lazio will also be without the services of both Joaquin Correa and Manuel Lazzari who each received red cards last weekend.

Verona on the ‘Double Chance’ market to win or draw at -125 could be in play, but I also expect both to find the back of the net and will bet both scoring on Serie A Matchday 30 at -132 odds.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-132)

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