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Soccer Odds: Is Neymar’s PSG Transfer Record Unbreakable?

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Soccer News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:38 AM PST

Neymar swimming in his millions
Photo credit: Doha Stadium (flickr) CC License.

It’s a done deal. Neymar is heading to Paris Saint-Germain after the Qatar-backed super-club agreed to pay his €222m release fee, an intentionally ludicrous sum set by Barcelona to deter other clubs from even considering him. But they underestimated the lengths to which PSG would go. In order to obtain the most marketable player in the world, they have blown the transfer market out of the water.

After an interesting display of financial gymnastics, Neymar and PSG were able to navigate their way around UEFA’s Financial Fair Play laws and strike a record-shattering deal. Past record-breaking transfers have raised eyebrows (see Paul Pogba, €105 million), but this is a whole other world of crazy.

Will Neymar thrive at PSG, and will PSG thrive in the Champions League? What’s in store for the world’s most expensive player and the richest club in France? 

 

 


NEYMAR/PSG ODDS

ODDS NEYMAR WINS BALLON D’OR BY 2020 (INCLUSIVE): 2/3

By moving to Paris, Neymar is stepping out from the shadow of Lionel Messi. For almost four years, he’s played second fiddle to the most decorated footballer in the world. Now he’s finally the centerpiece of a world-class team.

Can he compete with the likes of Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo for the Ballon d’Or? 

The two players have dominated the award for close to a decade, winning the last nine straight and finishing one-two in the voting in eight of those nine years. Ronaldo is poised to make it ten straight after leading Real Madrid to the La Liga and UCL titles. But he and Messi are both approaching retirement age, and Neymar is next in line for the coveted award. It’s only a matter of time until he’s declared the “best player in the world.” The 2020 deadline gives him three chances after this year, which, in turn, gives him a slightly-better-than-even-money shot. 

ODDS NEYMAR’S TRANSFER FEE RECORD IS BROKEN BY 2020: 4/1

A couple of years ago, a transfer exceeding €200 million was unfathomable. Actually, it kind of still is. At this moment in time, is there any other player that could fetch anything even remotely close to that? Ronaldo is the best player in the world, but at 32, not even he would command that kind of dollar figure. 

The pre-Neymar record was held by Paul Pogba, who only fetched €105 million last year when he signed with Manchester United. Man U also had the second-biggest signing of summer 2017, grabbing Romelu Lukaku for £75 million (about €83.2 million).

None of that comes even close to Neymar’s fee, and nothing will for a while, in all likelihood. 

ODDS PSG WINS THE 2017-18 LIGUE 1 TITLE: 1/4

After spending that much on a single player, PSG better take the 2017-18 title. Finishing the season on top has become an expectation for Les Parisiens, not an accomplishment, so it’s not entirely surprising that they seem to be in desperation mode after last year’s runner-up finish to Monaco (which snapped a run of four straight titles). 

Ligue 1 is by far the weakest of the big-four European leagues, and with the amount of money PSG have spent building their squad, anything less than the title will (and should) be considered a failure.

ODDS PSG WINS THE 2017-18 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: 9/1

Since the Qatari buy-out in 2011, Paris Saint-Germain have become a serious Champions League contender. However, the cashed-up French side have had disappointing results against other Europeans super-clubs, getting bounced in the quarterfinals in four straight tournaments.

As usual, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich are the favorites for 2017-18, but after the signing of Neymar, PSG’s chances are looking better.

ODDS TO REPLACE NEYMAR AT BARCELONA

  • Philippe Coutinho (Liverpool): 1/1
  • Ousmane Dembélé (Borussia Dortmund): 5/1
  • Kylian Mbappé (Monaco): 5/1
  • Ángel di María (Paris Saint-Germain): 9/1
  • Gerard Deulofeu (Barcelona): 19/1

Despite Jurgen Klopp’s resistance, it’ll be tough for Liverpool to hang onto Philippe Coutinho. Barcelona has already made a £72m offer for the Brazilian, which was promptly knocked back. The offers are going to keep growing, though, and they will get tougher and tougher to reject. 

French youngsters Kylian Mbappé (18) and Ousmane Dembélé (20) have also been linked to the Catalan giants. Both Borussia Dortmund and Monaco are well-accustomed to losing their rising stars to bigger clubs, and it’s only a matter of time before their new crop of prodigies is snapped up.

With the signing of Neymar, Ángel di María’s spot on PSG’s starting line-up is suddenly under threat. It’s unlikely, but we could see the former Real Madrid winger don a Barca jersey, completing a switcheroo of sorts.

Even more unlikely is a starting spot for Gerard Deulofeu, a product of the famed La Masia (Barca’s youth academy). Barcelona relies less on its academy these days, but it would be nice to see at least a couple of their players rise through the ranks.

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