Spain vs Costa Rica Odds & Prediction – World Cup Group Stage (Nov 23)
- Spain takes on Costa Rica in Group E play on Wednesday, November 23rd at 11 am ET
- The Spanish are 2-1-0 against Costa Rica in three friendlies; this is their first competitive match
- Get the Spain vs Costa Rica odds and prediction below
Spain and Costa Rica kick off their 2022 World Cup campaign on Wednesday at the Al Thumama Stadium in Doha. This marks Costa Rica’s third consecutive World Cup qualification, but their backs feel up against the wall here. Read further for our full Spain vs Costa Rica prediction and analysis.
Luis Fernando Suarez’s squad has the longest odds to qualify from Group E at +700, and challenging Spain will be no small task. Of course, Spain have the fifth-best World Cup Odds to win the tournament at +900. The European giants will want to control possession and suffocate their opponents upon losing the ball.
Additionally, this is Spain’s most winnable match. Germany and Japan will be much more difficult opponents, especially going forward. In turn, three points are necessary against a transitioning Costa Rica side.
Spain vs Costa Rica Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Spain | -600 |
| Costa Rica | +1700 |
| Draw | +700 |
Odds as of November 22nd from DraftKings. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to claim a unique World Cup bonus. Check out DraftKings’ parlay boosts for the World Cup offering up to 100% in parlay profit boosts.
Again, Spain are massive favorites in this one with moneyline odds of -600. All in all, this is giving them an implied win probability 85.7%, which might be a little harsh towards Los Ticos. Nonetheless, the public are also favoring La Furia Roja, with 91% of the handle in their favor in the World Cup betting splits.
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Spain vs Costa Rica Over/Under
Next, goals are also favored in this match as the over on 2.5 total goals sits at -160. The reverse option here has plus odds of +125, which might be a little bit undervalued. In their last 12 matches across all competitions, the over/under on 2.5 total goals has hit six times in favor of either option.
Spain vs Costa Rica Statistics
| 1.90 | Goals per game | 1.50 |
| 1.75 | Expected goals per game | 1.01 |
| 0.70 | Goals allowed per game | 0.80 |
| 0.85 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.62 |
| 74% | Possession % | 45% |
| 50% | Clean Sheet % | 50% |
| 11.8 | Shots per game | 7.22 |
| W-W-L-W-W | Recent Form Guide (Serie A) | W-W-D-W-W |
Stats in the table from the last ten matches across all competitions.
Ferran Torres to Score Odds
While the over/under market might be too close to call, I do rate a goal scorer to step up in this one. More specifically, I am talking about Ferran Torres, who has the fifth longest anytime goal scorer odds at +140.
Over recent years, it has become clear that Spain have a problem converting on xG. For example, at Euro 2020, Spain underperformed on their xG by over four goals, in a mere six games. Alvaro Morata is still a striker that feels wobbly, scoring only 0.34 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes. It feels as though Spain will start trusting other players, and Ferran Torres is an easy selection.
Ferran Torres: "This World Cup can mark a before and after for me. I play better on the right wing." pic.twitter.com/Tt19Gj3IuJ
— Barça Universal (@BarcaUniversal) November 20, 2022
In fact, Torres is scoring 0.73 goals per ninety for Spain with a non-penalty xG of 0.43. For reference, the latter stat puts him in the 92nd percentile of attacking midfielders and wingers in Europe’s top five leagues.
Spain vs Costa Rica Projected Lineups and Injuries
Spain Projected Lineup: Simon, Alba, Torres, Laporte, Carvajal, Busquets, Gavi, Pedri, Fati, Torres, Asensio
Major Injuries & Absences: Gaya
Costa Rica Projected Lineup: Navas, Oviedo, Calvo, Duarte, Fuller, Bennette, Tejada, Borges, Torres, Contreras, Campbell
Major Injuries & Absences: None
Spain vs Costa Rica Prediction
I am not that high on Spain for the 2022 World Cup, but Spain vs Costa Rica is decently cut and dry. The game’s possession will be dominated by Spain, but they will find it tough to break through or find a multi-goal advantage.
Remember, this team still has Keylor Navas in net; a keeper with three clean sheets and an 89% save percentage in eight World Cup matches. He is a bit older this time around, but will still be difficult to score against.
◾ The goalkeeper that led Real Madrid to three Champions League titles in a row.
◾ The goalkeeper that led PSG to there first ever Champions League final.
◾ The goalkeeper that led Costa Rica for the first time to three World Cup editions in a row.
Keylor Navas! 🙌🇨🇷❤️ pic.twitter.com/Iq2bJXuUfp
— FootballFunnys (@FootballFunnnys) November 15, 2022
Costa Rica will keep this match within one goal, and I rate Ferran Torres to score for Spain.
Pick: Costa Rica +1.5 (+160) & Ferran Torres to Score (+140)
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
