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USA and Mexico to Meet in CONCACAF Gold Cup Final: Mexico Favored at -200 Odds

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 16, 2020 · 1:12 PM PDT

Christian Pulisic warming up.
On Sunday, the USA takes on Mexico in the final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup, with new Chelsea signee Christian Pulisic key to their chances of victory. Photo by Reto Stauffer (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • The CONCACAF Gold Cup Final takes place at Soldier Field on Sunday (July 7th)
  • Mexico go into the game odds-on favorites
  • The USA will hope home-field advantage pays off

Mexico and Team USA, the two giants of CONCACAF, meet at Soldier Field in Chicago on Sunday, July 7 (9:00 PM ET) to contest the 2019 Gold Cup final. Since 2000, no team other than Mexico or USA has won the trophy, with this being the third time in that period these two teams have contested the final.

USA vs Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup Final Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds to Win
USA +0.5 (-130) +285 U 2.0 (+125) +165
Mexico -0.5 (+105) EVENS O 2.0 (-165) -200
Draw N/A +220 N/A N/A

*Odds taken 07/04/19

Mexico are odds-on favorites. They were favored ahead of the semifinals and, indeed, since before the tournament even started. But let’s not ignore the home-field advantage the USA will enjoy. Soldier Field will be a cauldron of pro-USA noise and will go some way in making up for the Mexicans’ technical superiority.

Consider too if, earlier the same day, the USA Women’s team are able to win the World Cup. That will add to the atmosphere in Chicago.

USA Home-Field Advantage Key?

The USA also have recent history on their side, as it was less than a year ago when they last beat the Mexicans on home soil (in Nashville on September 12, 2018). In that friendly, Tyler Adams’ 71st-minute goal gave USA the win, just four minutes after Mexico’s Angel Zaldivar had been sent off.

The States’ route to the final has been a fairly straightforward one, with five wins from five. Group-stage wins over Guyana (4-0), Trinidad & Tobago (6-0) and 2018 World Cup qualifier Panama (1-0) set up a quarterfinal against Curaçao, which they won 1-0 thanks to a first-half goal from Weston McKennie.

McKennie was also on the scoresheet in the semifinal when they beat a spirited Jamaican side 3-1 to earn their place at Soldier Field – the other two goals coming from the in-form Christian Pulisic.

One Mean Defense

So, the USA are in good form and have developed a winning habit, with their defense having conceded only a single goal in the whole tournament so far. To overcome the talented Mexicans that defense will need to remain rock solid on Sunday night.

USA vs Mexico Match-Ups

5 / 5 Number of wins in 2019 Gold Cup / Number of games 4 / 5
15 / 3 Number of goals scored in 2019 Gold Cup / Per game 15 / 3
1 / 0.2 Number of goals conceded in 2019 Gold Cup / Per game 4 / 0.8
2145 / 90% Total passes completed in 2019 Gold Cup / Pass completion 2724 / 94%
76 /  15.2 Total goal attempts in 2019 Gold Cup / Per game 115 / 23
6 Number of Gold Cups / CONCACAF titles won 10
0 Number of other trophies won 1
11 Number of Gold Cup finals 12

Mexican Nerve-Janglers

Mexico’s route to the final has not been without its scares, and it took an extra-time goal from Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Raúl Jiménez to see them edge into the final at Haiti’s expense.

Before that, their semifinal place was only secured once they had survived a nerve-jangling quarterfinal penalty shootout against Costa Rica. The two teams had been locked at 1-1 but the Mexicans held their nerve to win 5-4 on pens.


The Mexicans’ two close calls in the knockout stages were in contrast to the way they cruised through the group stages, with wins over Cuba (7-0), Canada (3-1) and Martinique (3-2).

But, despite their stuttering displays in the knockout phase, Mexico is in generally good shape and those weighing up a bet should note they are unbeaten in their last nine matches. All of a sudden that -200 doesn’t look so bad.

USA To Edge It?

Yet, we have a gut feeling that it could be the USA’s night. There is still some residual pain over them missing out on the finals of the 2018 World Cup, and a Gold Cup victory would go a long way in the healing process. They also have a formidable defense. We think that +285 for the US win within 90 minutes is great value.

Our pick: USA to win in 90 minutes (+285) 

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