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West Brom, Fulham & Aston Villa Given Shortest Odds for Premier League Relegation in 2020/21

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 12:29 PM PST

Aston Villa's Jack Grealish
Aston Villa's Jack Grealish reacts after his is judged to have fouled Manchester United's Fred during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Aston Villa at Old Trafford in Manchester, England, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (Carl Recine/ Pool via AP)
  • Two newly promoted teams and Aston Villa, who struggled last season, are favored for relegation from the Premier League in 2020-21
  • West Brom and Fulham have been in the top flight recently, but they face a difficult task to stay up
  • Is there value in backing any longer odds options to go down?

With a new Premier League season comes hope and excitement. For so many teams, though, their focus is on simply avoiding relegation, rather than European qualification or a title push. Around half of the Premier League’s 20 teams are concerned about the drop, with staying up their priority before they consider loftier ambitions.

That balance is shown in the EPL relegation odds, with a lot of teams in the mix to go down. A poor start, a string of injuries, could put almost any team in relegation trouble.

The table below shows the odds of relegation from the Premier League this season.

EPL Relegation Odds

Team Odds to Not be Relegated Relegation Odds at Bet365
Wolves -15000 +3300
Leicester -15000 +3300
Everton -5000 +2000
Southampton -1200 +800
West Ham -700 +450
Leeds -500 +350
Brighton -500 +350
Sheffield United -450 +333
Burnley -400 +300
Newcastle -275 +225
Crystal Palace -250 +200
Aston Villa -225 +175
Fulham -138 +110
West Brom -125 +100

Odds taken September 9.

What Does it Take to Stay Up?

The traditional cliche of needing 40 points to stay up is no more than that. Aston Villa avoided the drop with 35 last season, and that tally would have been enough for safety in each of the last four campaigns. No team has been relegated with 38 points since the 2010-11 season when Birmingham and Blackpool both went down with 39.

Picking up 37 points has been enough to stay up in eight of the last nine seasons. It remains that 40 points almost guarantees safety, but in truth, teams are likely safe if they get to 38.

Fulham and West Brom return to the Premier League in 2020-21 after brief stays in the Championship. Despite coming up automatically, the Baggies are the most likely team to go down according to the odds.

Tough Season for Newly Promoted Duo

West Brom hit the headlines with the acquisition of Grady Diangana recently. Slaven Bilic also added Matheus Pereira, Cedric Kipre and David Button to his squad, but there’s a lack of quality there. They have Premier League experience in Charlie Austin, Jake Livermore and Kieran Gibbs, though they are hardly standout names.

The Midlands club needs to do plenty more before the window shuts if they are to have a realistic chance of staying up.

There’s a bit more to get excited about in Fulham’s squad, notably star striker Aleksandar Mitrovic. Fulham looked to have a strong squad when they were last in the Premier League, however, and massively disappointed.

This season is a test of Scott Parker’s managerial credentials. He did well to bring Fulham up and pull the team together after a terrible Premier League campaign, but managing in the Premier League, against teams with better players, is a different task altogether. Their +110 to go down is where you’d expect – they have the firepower to win enough matches to stay up if Parker can get the balance of the side right. Some bettors will be tempted by Fulham to stay up at -138.

2024 English Premier League Odds Tracker
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Watkins Arrival Aids Villa

Narrowly avoiding relegation in 2019-20, it’s not surprising to see Aston Villa at -225 to extend their Premier League stay. Dean Smith’s team were too often outclassed last season, left short of ideas in attack and far from secure defensively. Only Norwich conceded more, and they lacked a reliable goal scorer.

The signing of Ollie Watkins should aid their attack this term, and crucially give Jack Grealish a player to link up with. Watkins’ arrival markedly changes Villa’s outlook.

Smith will be under pressure quickly if Villa struggle again. A lot depends on the fitness of Grealish and how Watkins adapts to the Premier League. They look a good bet to avoid the drop as it stands, but as with so many of these teams, the moves they make in the rest of the transfer window are key.

Palace Hard to Judge

An aging Crystal Palace squad needed fresh faces this off-season, and they landed one in Eberechi Eze from QPR. Eze will provide another creative force for the Eagles, who were the league’s second-lowest scorers last season. The imminent arrival of Michy Batshuayi on loan will help Roy Hodgson out, too.

Hodgson has a knack for finding results. Palace were pretty much safe when the Premier League restarted, but their form after the resumption will concern some bettors. They picked up four points from their final nine matches.

That run could be attributed to having nothing to play for, of course, or it could be a sign of a team in decline. How they start this season will be interesting.

The odds show Palace and Newcastle as the two teams most at threat if one of Fulham, Villa or West Brom avoid relegation. That’s a fair assessment given where those two teams stand at the moment, but bettors should keep an eye on the form of West Ham. The Irons are in disarray at the moment with unhappy players and furious fans – they are yet to add to their squad this window and could easily find themselves in trouble again after finishing 16th last season.

More EPL Season Preview Coverage

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