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2019 Australian Open Men’s Final Odds & Pick: Nadal vs Djokovic

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Jan 25, 2019 · 9:31 AM PST

Novak Djokovic
Novak_Djokovic is hoping to win his seventh Australian Open. Photo by Tatiana (Wikimedia Commons).
  • The top two seeds meet in the Australian Open – Novak Djokovic (1) vs Rafael Nadal (2)
  • The top two seeds have met in 46 Grand Slam finals, with each seed winning 23 times
  • Djokovic (1) and Nadal (2) are also the top-ranked players in the world

It’s played out to form in the men’s singles event at the Australian Open, with top-seeded Novak Djokovic of Serbia slated to meet No. 2 seed Rafael Nadal of Spain in Sunday’s final. They also met in the 2012 Australian Open final. Djokovic won that final 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(5-7), 7-5.

Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Australian Open Final Odds

Player Moneyline Point Spread Total (01/25/19)
Novak Djokovic -130 -1.5 (-105) O 42 (-115)
Rafael Nadal +110 +1.5 (-125) U 42 (-105)

Start Time 3:30am EST 1/27.

Overall, Djokovic owns a slight 27-25 edge over Nadal in head-to-head meetings, but a decisive 18-7 advantage on hard surfaces like the one they are playing on in Melbourne.

You can view our 2019 Australian Open odds tracker to see how the odds for Djokovic and Nadal have ebbed and flowed throughout this year’s tournament.

Advantage Djokovic

Djokovic wasted little time in dispatching France’s Lucas Pouille 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 in their semifinal in a match that took just one hour, 25 minutes to complete. Djokovic had just five unforced errors in the match and hit 24 winners.

His 6-0 opening set marked the 15th time that Djokovic had pitched a shutout in the first set of a Grand Slam match, a record for men. He will be playing in his 24th Grand Slam final.

Djokovic’s four lost games were the second-fewest numbers of losses suffered by a player in an Australian Open semi-final.

Djokovic’s four lost games were the second-fewest numbers of losses suffered by a player in an Australian Open semi-final. In 1984, Mats Wilander lost only three games while dispatching Johan Kriek from the semis.

Djokovic is riding a two-tournament winning streak in Grand Slam events, capturing both Wimbledon and the US Open to close out last season, his first Grand Slam wins since a French Open victory in 2016.

The French triumph closed out a run of four straight Grand Slam championships for Djokovic. He’s the only men’s player to win at least three Grand Slam events in succession since 2011 and he’s accomplished this feat twice.

Rafa Has Been Raking

Between them, Nadal, who will be playing in his 25th Grand Slam final and Djokovic have dropped just 10 games en route to their final showdown. Only Bjorn Borg and Guillermo Vilas, at the 1978 French Open, combined to get to a Grand Slam final with fewer losses (nine).

Nadal topped Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2, 6-4, 6-0 in their semi-final, and clearly, both of these players are on top of their games entering the final. In his semifinal match, Djokovic won 84 percent of first-service points, while Nadal captured 85 percent. On second service, Djokovic was good to win 87 percent of the time, compared to 71 percent for Nadal. On second return points, the edge also went to Djokovic 74-70.

When these two clashed in the 2012 Aussie Open final, Djokovic (1) and Nadal (2) were also the top two seeds. Djokovic owns a seven-match, 14-set win streak against Nadal on hard surfaces. Djokovic hasn’t lost a Grand Slam final since he fell to Stan Wawrinka in the 2015 French Open.

Nadal is 1-3 in Australian Open finals and in his lone victory in 2009, he was the tournament’s No. 1 seed.

An Open and Shut Case for Novak

Any way you stack the numbers, the digits come out in favor of Djokovic. He is 7-0 in Australian Open semifinal matches. He is 6-0 in Australian Open finals. He is 34-0 as the top seed at the Australian Open, the most wins without suffering a defeat by a No. 1 seed in any Grand Slam event since the Open era began in 1968.

Djokovic is 190-1 in matches at Grand Slam events after he wins the first two sets.

Djokovic is 190-1 in matches at Grand Slam events after he wins the first two sets . He is 51-0 beyond the second round in his Australian Open history.

With his two 6-0 verdicts over Pouille, Djokovic became just the fifth player and the first man in the Open era to win multiple 6-0 sets in a Grand Slam semifinal.

The last time Nadal and Djokovic clashed for the Australian Open title, it was an epic six-hour affair, so if you like classic tennis, be sure to set your alarm. But we’ve said from the start that this was Djokovic’s tournament to win.

The form charts have held into the final, and they will hold in the final. Bet accordingly.

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