Indian Wells Men’s Singles Odds & Preview: With No Big 3, a Wide-Open Event
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- The 2021 Indian Wells men’s singles draw features … zero former champions
- None of the contenders have had much previous success in the California desert
- But someone will win. Read on as we break down the draw and predict a winner
The BNP Paribas Open has been dominated in recent years by Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic (who won three straight from 2014-2016).
But neither is in the desert for this unusual October edition, postponed from its regular March time slot.
Neither is Rafael Nadal. Neither is defending champion, Dominic Thiem.
Indian Wells was the very first tennis event to be canceled because of COVID-19. That was in March 2020 – before anyone even know how bad it would get.
So this is the first time the players have descended upon what’s called “Tennis Paradise” since March 2019.
BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Odds
| Seed | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| [1] | Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | +175 |
| [3] | Alexander Zverev (GER) | +500 |
| [2] | Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | +700 |
| [4] | Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +1600 |
| [5] | Matteo Berrettini (ITA) | +2500 |
| [6] | Casper Ruud (NOR) | +2800 |
| [10] | Jannik Sinner (ITA) | +2800 |
| [8] | Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | +2800 |
| [7] | Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) | +2800 |
| [12] | Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) | +3500 |
| [11] | Diego Schwartzman (ARG) | +3500 |
| [9] | Denis Shapovalov (CAN) | +3500 |
| [16] | Reilly Opelka (USA) | +5000 |
| [20] | John Isner (USA) | +5000 |
| [WC] | Andy Murray (GBR) | +6500 |
| [26] | Lloyd Harris (RSA) | +5000 |
| – | Jenson Brooksby (USA) | +8000 |
Odds as of Oct. 6 at DraftKings
Daniil Medvedev the Big Favorite
US Open champion Daniil Medvedev is the biggest favorite to win the BNP Paribas Open, even though his career record there is just 3-3.
But that’s not much better or worse than the other contenders, most of whom have not played it often and haven’t done particularly well. So that helps his case.
There’s a little bucket-list item at stake, too.
If Daniil Medvedev wins Indian Wells, he is gonna become World No.1 only for a week ( 1st of November ), due to Novak's Paris 2019 points dropping a week earlier than Daniil's Paris 2020 points.
If that happens, Novak will regain his No.1 spot November 8th. https://t.co/ifAewaZlKc
— kr9pton (@kr9ptonlul) September 29, 2021
None of the winners since 2013 are in this year’s draw. Of the finalists, only 36-year-old John Isner and new-hipped Andy Murray are on hand.
BNP Paribas Open Men’s Contenders – Best Previous Results
| Player | Main-Draw Appearances | Career W/L | Best Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Daniil Medvedev | 3 | 3-3 | R32 (2018, 2019) |
| [2] Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2 | 1-2 | R64 (2018) |
| [3] Alexander Zverev | 5 | 5-4 | R16 (2016) |
| [4] Andrey Rublev | 4 | 1-2 | R32 (2019) |
| [5] Matteo Berrettini | 2 | 0-2 | R64 (2018) |
| [6] Casper Ruud | 2 | 0-0 | Q2 (2018) |
| [7] Félix Auger-Aliassime | 2 | 3-2 | R32 (2019) |
| [8] Hubert Hurkacz | 1 | 4-1 | QF (2019) |
Look Out for Ruud and Hurkacz
The slow, gritty court and desert conditions that make the ball dash through the air are unique to the BNP Paribas Open.
Despite Federer’s success, the surface generally favors grinders who can survive long rallies, but also bring some power.
That’s why Hubert Hurkacz is a name to watch. In his first and only appearance at Indian Wells in 2019, ranked No. 67, he made the quarterfinals and lost to Federer.
This year, he’s the No. 8 seed.
Casper Ruud was ranked No. 94 when he lost in the first round of qualifying in 2019. Now, he’s the No. 6 seed.
But Hurkacz is in Medvedev’s quarter of the draw; Ruud is in Rublev’s quarter. If you had to pick one, it likely would be Ruud.
Previous BNP Paribas Open Men’s Winners and Finalists
| Year | Champion | Finalist |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Not held | – |
| 2019 | [7] Dominic Thiem (AUT) | [4] Roger Federer (SUI) |
| 2018 | [6] Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) | [1] Roger Federer (SUI) |
| 2017 | [9] Roger Federer (SUI) | [3] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) |
| 2016 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [12] Milos Raonic (CAN) |
| 2015 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [2] Roger Federer (SUI) |
| 2014 | [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [7] Roger Federer (SUI) |
| 2013 | [5] Rafael Nadal (ESP) | [7] Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) |
First-Round Matches to Watch
Jack Sock (-145) vs John Millman (+115)
Sock has had some success at Indian Wells – a semifinal and a fourth-round, both stopped by Roger Federer. And he has won the doubles. But other than those two years, he’s 2-5 and that’s likely down to surface conditions.
Millman, who has only played Indian Wells twice (2016 and 2019) hasn’t done well there. But he’s a grinder who can make Sock miss. He’s also good for first-round upsets of good players on occasion. And he can neutralize a big server almost as well as the surface itself can.
Spotted at Indian Wells 👀@andy_murray working ahead of his #BNPPO21 opener#BackTheBrits 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/1jgMDf7Y07
— LTA (@the_LTA) October 6, 2021
Andy Murray (-340) vs Adrian Mannarino (+245)
Murray has beaten Mannarino both times they played, including at Indian Wells. But both those matches came back in 2015 when Murray was in the top five. And he had to come back from a two-sets-to-none deficit to beat the French lefty at the US Open.
In Murray’s favor is his record against lefties; only Rafael Nadal and (oddly) Fernando Verdasco have found a way through him regularly.
Mannarino has plenty of experience with the Indian Wells conditions, and he’s posted some good wins there. He’s able to take the ball early enough to combat the high bounce. This one could be a grinder’s delight (+170 to go three sets).
Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev (+175)
Longer shot: Casper Ruud (+2800)
Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
