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2021 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Odds & Preview: Nadal Looking for 12th Title

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Apr 12, 2021 · 11:42 AM PDT

Rafael Nadal following through on a serve during a tennis match.
Spain's Rafael Nadal serves during his fourth round match against Italy's Fabio Fognini at the Australian Open tennis championship in Melbourne, Australia, Monday, Feb. 15, 2021.(AP Photo/Andy Brownbill)
  • The Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters continues today through the end of the week in Monaco
  • Many of the top players will play their first match tomorrow as the round of 32 starts
  • See below for the odds to win the tournament outright and our best bet analysis

The 11-time champion Rafael Nadal headlines this year’s Monte-Carlo Masters, along with World No. 1 Novak Djokovic. Nadal and Djokovic have been placed in opposite halves of the draw, possibly setting the stage for a fourth championship match at this tournament between these two.

Nadal currently leads the odds to win outright with -139, and there’s good reason for that. The King of Clay has dominated at this tournament in the past and will look to do the same again this year in his first showing since the Australian Open.

Weather has been a factor today, delaying and even suspending a few matches. But take a look below for the odds to win the tournament, and some players to keep an eye out for.

Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Singles Odds

Player Odds at DraftKings
[3] Rafael Nadal -139
[1] Novak Djokovic +250
[2] Daniil Medvedev +1500
Jannik Sinner +1700
[4] Stefanos Tsitsipas +1700
[6] Andrey Rublev +2000
[9] Roberto Bautista-Agut +2300
[5] Alexander Zverev +2700
[7] Diego Schwartzman +2700
[8] Matteo Berrettini +5000
[12] Pablo Carreno Busta +5000
Aslan Karatsev +5000
Casper Ruud +5000
Felix Auger Aliassime +10000
[14] Grigor Dimitrov +10000
[15] Fabio Fognini +10000
[16] Cristian Garin +12500
[11] David Goffin +15000
Karen Khachanov +15000
Dusan Lajovic +15000

Odds as of April 12th

Defending Champion

This tournament did not take place last year due to the pandemic, so the defending champion is still Italy’s Fabio Fognini. He will take to the court tomorrow at 5:00 AM EST for his round of 64 match against Serbia’s Miomir Kecmanovic.

in 2019 Fognini defeated Alexander Zverev and Nadal to become the first Italian to win a Masters 1000 trophy. Fognini could meet Daniil Medvedev in the third round, and once again shares the same half as Nadal.

Despite being the defending champion, Fognini hasn’t had an overwhelmingly great start to 2021. He did face Nadal in the fourth round of the Aussie Open, which he lost in straight sets, and is coming off a couple of losses heading into this tournament.

Previous Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters Singles

Year Player
2020 No Competition due to COVID-19
2019 Fabio Fognini
2018 Rafael Nadal
2017 Rafael Nadal
2016 Rafael Nadal

World No. 1

Djokovic is returning to play this week after taking a couple of months off. He last competed in Melbourne where he won his ninth Australian Open title. Djokovic will be essentially playing at home, as he transitions from the hardcourt surface to clay. He last did that back in the fall of 2020 where he was a finalist at the French Open.

There’s no easy route to the finals for Djokovic as his draw is filled with strong competitors. He’ll open his tournament against Jannick Sinner, who is coming off a strong showing in the United States. This will be the first time these two players will have played each other on tour.

The World No. 1 will be looking for his third title here in France.

The King of Clay

Like Djokovic, Nadal will also be competing for the first time since the Australian Open. The Spaniard will be looking for his 12th Monte-Carlo trophy, as he starts his tournament off against either a qualifier or France’s Adrian Mannarino.

Nadal currently holds a 71-5 record here, and impressively has won eight consecutive titles from 2005-2012. The now 34-year old will be challenged, as there are some tough opponents he could possibly face in his draw. In his quarter he could see sixth seed Andrey Rublev or recent Miami semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut. But he also drew Medvedev in his half.

Who to Watch

Fifth seed Alexander Zverev currently has +2700 odds to win the tournament outright. He’ll start his tournament either against Lorenzo Sonego or Marton Fucsovics. He hasn’t played either before but should be able to win that match. It really doesn’t look like he would truly be challenged until maybe the quarterfinals where he could find himself up against Djokovic.

Stefanos Tsitsipas who is the fourth seed and currently has +1700 to win the tournament should be able to win his quarter. But Aslan Karatsev, Cristian Garin and Matteo Berrettini are all players that could stand in his way.

Best Bets

It’s hard to bet against Nadal at a tournament like this. His resume as a whole, but specifically on clay, speaks for itself. The fact that he’s already listed at -139, just shows how big of a favorite he is at this tournament, and basically any clay-court tournament that he participates in.

If you don’t want to go with Nadal, it’s worth keeping an eye on Medvedev and Tsitsipas. We’ve seen in the past how the younger generation can disrupt the likes of Nadal and Djokovic at times.

My Pick: Nadal (-139)

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