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Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – ATP Finals Final

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Nov 20, 2021 · 8:48 PM PST

Alexander Zverev looking skyward
Alexander Zverev of Germany reacts after defeating Novak Djokovic of Serbia in their ATP World Tour Finals, singles semifinal, tennis match, at the Pala Alpitour in Turin, Italy, Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021. Zverev won 7-6/4-6/6-3. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Daniil Medvedev meets Alexander Zverev for the second this week – this time in the championship match
  • Medvedev eked out the round-robin win in a third-set tiebreak; it was his fifth straight win over Zverev
  • The odds for this final are about the same as for the round-robin match; we break it down and make a pick

No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev and No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev meet Sunday (11am ET) in the finale of the ATP Tour’s season.

As he was in their round-robin match Tuesday, Medvedev is the slight favorite.

Zverev vs Medvedev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[3] Daniil Medvedev (GER) +2.5 (-115) +150 O 23.5 (-105)
[2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) -2.5 (-105) -180 U 23.5 (-115)

Odds as of Nov. 20 at DraftKings


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Zverev Upsets Djokovic

Zverev’s odds of beating Djokovic in Saturday’s semifinal were roughly the same as they are for Sunday’s final against Medvedev.

And, similarly, he was on a poor run of success against him. Other than their match at the Olympics, Djokovic had won the last six.

It will be encouraging to the German that he was able to pull it off.

Zverev eked it out 7-6, (4), 4-6, 6-3 in 2.5 hours.

Zverev vs Medvedev Head-to-Head

Alexander Zverev
Daniil Medvedev
24 (April 20, 1997) Age 25 (Feb. 11, 1996)
Hamburg, Germany Birthplace Moscow, Russia
6-6 Height 6-6
18 Career ATP Singles Titles 13
0 Career Grand Slam Singles Titles 1
No. 3 (Nov. 6, 2017) Career High Ranking No. 2 (March 5, 2021)
No. 3 Current Ranking No. 2
$27,585,875 Career Prize Money $20,389,856
58-15 2021 Won/Loss record 58-12
5 Career Head to Head 6

Medvedev on a Five-Match Streak vs Zverev

As in most of the big events this year, the challenge anyone outside the top two has if they aspire to a title is the same one that faces Zverev Sunday.

Most often, you have to get through both Djokovic and Medvedev, the class of the ATP Tour.

Zverev has lost the last five to Medvedev – including this week. And the Russian also is the defending ATP Finals champion.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 ATP Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 6-3, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (6) Medvedev
2021 Paris Masters (SF) Indoor Hard 6-2, 6-2 Medvedev
2021 ATP Cup (SF) Outdoor Hard 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 Medvedev
2020 ATP FInals (RR) Indoor Hard 6-3, 6-4 Medvedev
2020 Paris Masters (F) Indoor Hard 5-7, 6-4, 6-1 Medvedev
2019 ATP FInals (RR) Indoor Hard 6-4, 7-6 (4) Zverev
2019 Masters Shanghai (F) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 6-1 Medvedev
2018 Masters Canada (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-2 Zverev
2018 Masters Miami (R64) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 (5) Zverev
2017 Washington (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 6-4 Zverev
2016 St. Petersburg (R16) Indoor Hard 6-3, 7-5 Zverev

Recent Results

The two also met just two weeks ago in the semifinals of the Paris Masters.

Zverev didn’t show for that one. But he showed on Tuesday. The German did everything but win it.

In a match with few break points, there was only one break, to Medvedev. Zverev did an incredible job of winning points on his sometimes-shaky second serve.

But if he wants to win Sunday, he’ll have to improve his success on first serve and try to expend less energy holding n his own serve.

He’ll also have to try to put more Medvedev first serves in play.

Here are the full stats for their round-robin match.

Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev Stats – Round-Robin

Category Alexander Zverev Daniil Medvedev
Aces 18 14
Double Faults 2 1
Winners 40 30
Unforced Errors 40 34
Points Won on 1st Serve 70% 79%
Points Won on 2nd Serve 65% 59%
Break Points Saved 3-4 4-4
Return points Won on 1st Serve 21% 30%
Return points Won on 2nd Serve 41% 35%
Break Points Converted 0-4 1-4
Total Points 104 112

Zverev vs Medvedev Pick

Medvedev still has the Davis Cup finals this season. Zverev isn’t playing; this will be his final match of 2021.

Zverev also is an ATP Finals champion. In 2018, Djokovic beat him easily in the round-robin. But then he came back to get his revenge in the final.

Will history repeat itself?

We like his chances, despite being the underdog at +150. We also like the odds on a first-set tiebreak (+260).

Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+140)

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