ATP Dubai Tennis Championships Semifinals Odds & Picks: Hurkacz vs Rublev & Vesely vs Shapovalov
- No. 5 seed Hubert Hurkacz takes on No. 2 Andrey Rublev in the first Dubai singles semifinal Friday (8am ET)
- Qualifier Jiri Vesely meets No. 6 Denis Shapovalov in the second semifinal (10am ET)
- Read on as we break down their road to the final four in Dubai, and makes some predictions
They’re down to four at the ATP Dubai Open.
Andrey Rublev is having a much better 2022 so far than his semifinal opponent Hubert Hurkacz.
And Denis Shapovalov finds himself playing a third consecutive qualifier, Jiri Vesely, to get to Saturday’s singles final.
Hubert Hurkacz vs Andrey Rublev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [5] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | -1.5 (+105) | -137 | O 23.5 (-105) |
| [2] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +1.5 (-135) | +110 | U 23.5 (-125) |
Odds as of Feb. 24 at Caesars Sportsbook
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Rublev Betting Outlook
At some point, in his third straight week of going deep into draws, Rublev surely is going to hit a wall.
First, he reached the semifinals in Rotterdam, losing to Felix Auger-Aliassime. He also played doubles there. And last week, he defeated the Canadian in the singles final and won the doubles title.
This week in Dubai, Rublev had a tight first-round win over Dan Evans. Then he had to come back from a set down to defeat unseeded Soonwoo Kwon and Mackenzie McDonald.
Hurkacz vs Rublev Head-to-Head
| 25 (Feb. 11, 1997) | Age | 24 (Oct. 20, 1997) |
| Wroclaw, Poland | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-5 | Height | 6-2 |
| 4 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 9 |
| No. 9 (Nov. 8, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021) |
| No. 11 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $5,380,177 | Career Prize Money | $10.305,636 |
| 8-3 | 2022 Won/Loss record | 12-2 |
| 2 | Career Head to Head | 0 |
Hurkacz Betting Outlook
Meanwhile, Hurkacz (who turned 25 two weeks ago), looks to be kicking into gear after a modest start to 2022.
In Dubai, Hurkacz dropped just four games to Alexander Bublik and five to lucky loser Alex Molcan.
In the quarterfinals against No. 4 seed Jannik Sinner, Hurkacz won 6-3, 6-3 in less than an hour and a half, and never faced a break point on his serve.
He’s also 2-0 against Rublev in their head-to-head.
Hurkacz vs Rublev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Miami Masters (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-4 | Hurkacz |
| 2020 | Rome Masters (R32) | Outdoor Clay | 7-6 (6), 3-6, 6-2 | Hurkacz |
We know Hurkacz will keep his cool more than a tired Rublev is likely to.
And the head-to-head is no fluke, as Rublev’s serve return is not a huge strength. Hurkacz got up to 224 km/hour against Sinner, and averaged 207 km/hour (higher than Sinner’s fastest first serve).
Hurkacz can stay with Rublev on the forehand, to a point. And his backhand is superior.
Pick: Hurkacz to Win First Set (-130)
Shapovalov Recent Results
When the draw came out, No. 6 seed Denis Shapovalov was looking at countryman Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals, and then world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the semis.
As it turned out, he had to face neither. Vesely will be the third consecutive qualifier on the other side of the net.
On Thursday, qualifier Vesely shocked Djokovic, 6-4, 7-6 (4).
Djokovic broke Vesely when he tried to serve out the match at 5-4 in the second. But the burly Czech lefty took the tiebreak. It was his second victory in two attempts against Djokovic, even though he won just three more total points.
Vesely vs Shapovalov Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Q] Jiri Vesely (CZE) | +3.5 (-125) | +190 | O 22.5 (-110) |
| [6] Denis Shapovalov (CAN) | -3.5 (-105) | -250 | U 22.5 (-120) |
Vesely dominated with first serves up to 225 km/hour. Even his second serve averaged 180 km/hour. On top of that, he’s a lefty.
But the clincher was that Djokovic won a (relatively) poor 42% of his own second serves.
Vesely vs Shapovalov Head-to-Head
| 28 (July 10, 1993) | Age | 22 (April 15, 1999) |
| Pribram, Czech Republic | Birthplace | Tel Aviv, Israel |
| 6-6 | Height | 6-1 |
| 2 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 35 (April 27, 2015) | Career High Ranking | No. 10 (Sept. 21, 2020) |
| No. 123 | Current Ranking | No. 14 |
| $4,913,764 | Career Prize Money | $8,575,471 |
| 4-5 | 2022 Won/Loss record | 11-4 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 0 |
Vesely Betting Outlook
Vesely was 1-5 in ATP Tour main-draw matches coming in, although he won two more in qualifying and two more at the Challenger level.
In his favour is the fact that Shapovalov is a pedestrian 14-17 against lefties in his career, including a win earlier in the week against lucky loser Alex Molcan.
Vesely is 21-19, but many of those wins were at the Challenger level.
World No. 123 Jiri Vesely and future World No. 1 @DaniilMedwed are the only 2 players to face @DjokerNole multiple times while the Serbian is No. 1 and post a winning record in those matches.
Medvedev is 4-3 vs. No. 1 Djokovic and Vesely improved to 2-0 vs. No. 1 Djokovic today.
— ATP Media Info (@ATPMediaInfo) February 24, 2022
In Shapovalov’s favour is that it is historically incredibly hard for a lower-ranked player to upset a No. 1 – and then come back the next day – without having a physical and/or emotional letdown.
The two are meeting for the first time.
Pick: Shapovalov Loses First Set, Wins Match (+525)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
