Cameron Norrie vs Casper Ruud Odds & Prediction – ATP Finals Round Robin

• Cameron Norrie is a late alternate, to take on No. 8 seed Casper Ruud at the ATP Finals Wednesday
• Stefanos Tsitsipas has been carrying an elbow injury; he withdrew after losing his first group match
• Ruud was the underdog; he’s now the favorite. Read on for analysis and predictions

First, it was Matteo Berrettini suffering an abdominal injury during his first match, and withdrawing from the ATP Tour Finals.

Then, Wednesday, it was announced that Stefanos Tsitsipas also was pulling his Finals ripcord, after losing his opening match to Andrey Rublev in lackluster fashion Monday.

So Cameron Norrie makes his ATP Finals debut, against fellow debutant Casper Ruud (3:00 pm ET).

Cameron Norrie vs Casper Ruud Odds

Odds as of Nov. 17 at DraftKings

Late Withdrawal No Surprise from Tsitsipas

There had been little elaboration on exactly what Tsitsipas’s arm problem was. It turns out it’s an elbow issue. And it was bad enough that he retired, down 2-4 in the opening set, in his opening match at the Paris Masters two weeks ago.

Excludes MA.

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As the ATP Tour Finals began, he said the injury was improving. But after a straight-sets loss to Rublev Monday, he said he “would prefer not to comment” on the injury.

With less than six weeks before the start of the 2022 season, the margins are slim for those carrying injuries into the offseason.

And so, Indian Wells champion Norrie steps in.

Cameron Norrie vs Casper Ruud Head-to-Head

Lefty Norrie Brings a Wrinkle

The substitution is a tricky pivot for Ruud, as there were no lefties in the original ATP Finals field and Ruud will not have been able to find one to practice with.

But he’s had huge success against them over the last year. Ruud was 7-9 against southpaws coming into 2021. This year, he’s 5-1.

The wins over Yoshihito Nishioka, Dominik Koepfer, Denis Shapovalov (top 10 at the time) and Hugo Gaston all came on clay this summer, after Wimbledon.

But his most recent one, in the final of the San Diego tournament just before Indian Wells, came against Norrie.

There’s probably not that much to read into the 6-0, 6-2 score other than Norrie was out of gas after beating countryman and then-British No. 1 Daniel Evans, Shapovalov and Rublev in succession.

Given he won the biggest title of his career at Indian Wells the very next week, Norrie recovered beautifully.

Cameron Norrie vs Casper Ruud Match History

Semis Still in Play for Ruud

If Norrie wins, it keeps everything alive in the group.

Norrie would also have to beat Djokovic on Friday – a tall task for a player who never expected to be in that position this week.

Even if the Brit managed two victories, he would be eliminated by another player who also posted two wins by virtue of them having played the full three matches.

If Ruud beats Norrie, he would also have to beat Rublev – against whom he’s 0-4, and who has beaten him three times on his favored clay.

It appears Djokovic and Rublev will be the ones to go through. But it’s still all to play for.

Ruud the Favorite in Surprise Matchup

It’s all bonus time for Norrie, who was an alternate at Laver Cup but never got to play.

Anything he does is just more ranking points and more money, whether he has a legitimate shot at the semifinals or not.

But suddenly, Ruud finds himself as the favorite rather than the underdog. And in his first-ever ATP Finals, he’ll still have to process the fact that you can lose and still play again that week. It’s a big pivot.

So is going from a righty to a lefty opponent.

As it is, the fast surface puts Ruud at a disadvantage; it works much better for Norrie.

It should be a battle – of both tennis and nerves.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+135)