Dominic Thiem Upsets Rafael Nadal, Now +450 to Win Australian Open
- Sportsbooks now lists Dominic Thiem as the +450 second betting choice to win the Australian Open men’s singles title
- Thiem upset #1 seed Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals
- He was at average odds of +1533 to win the tournament prior to facing Nadal
Has Dominic Thiem’s time to shine in Grand Slam tennis finally arrived?
Sportsbooks think he’s in with a real chance. The sportsbook has established Theim as the +450 second betting choice to win the men’s singles title in their Australian Open odds.
Thiem, the #5 seed, downed top-seeded Rafael Nadal 7-6 (3), 7-6 (4), 4-6, 7-6 (6) in their quarterfinal match.
The Austrian player is 15th all-time in earnings in men’s tennis. He’s never won a Grand Slam title, though. Thiem lost to Nadal in both the 2018 and 2019 French Open final on the clay surface at Roland Garros.
On a hard-court surface, his previous best showing in a Grand Slam was reaching the quarterfinal stage at the 2018 US Open.
2020 Australian Open Men’s Singles Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | -300 |
| Dominic Thiem | +450 |
| Roger Federer | +900 |
| Alexander Zverev | +1000 |
Odds taken Jan. 29.
Prior to this year, his best performance at the Australian Open were fourth-round appearances in 2017 and 2018.
Thiem Hard on Nadal
His victory over Nadal was just Thiem’s fifth in 14 matches but was his first on a hard-court surface. All four previous triumphs came on clay. But he’s now won two of this last three matches from Nadal.
It was a hard-fought triumph that took over four hours to accomplish. Thiem required tiebreakers to win all three of his sets. Nadal twice fought off match point.
Thiem squandered a chance to win the fourth set when leading 5-4 but recovered to take the tiebreaker.
He’s gone on to win two of four tournaments in which he’d previously beaten Nadal.
Solid History Against Big Three
Looking at his record against the other members of the big three in men’s tennis, the Austrian star has accounted for himself quite well.
He owns four wins in 10 matches against World #2 and Australian Open betting favorite Novak Djokovic. Thiem has won four of his last five matches against Djokovic.
They’ve met three times in Grand Slam events, all on the clay at the French Open. Thiem has won of those matches.
World #3 Roger Federer meets Djokovic in the other Aussie Open semifinal. Thiem has dominated against Federer, winning five of seven matches. He beat the Swiss star in last year’s Indian Wells final. The world #5 is is 4-1 in his last five against Federer.
Thiem vs Zverev
Thiem is equally strong in matches with his semifinal opponent, world #7 Alexander Zverev. He’s beaten Zverev in six of eight previous meetings.
The Austrian is 2-1 when facing Zverev on hard courts. He’s 3-1 against Zverev in tournament semifinals or finals. And he’s 2-0 in prior Grand Slam clashes.
Defending champ Djokovic is still the chalk to win this event, with good reason. But if you prefer a value bet, you won’t find a better choice than Thiem.
At that price, he’s definitely worth at least a small investment.
Pick: Dominik Thiem (+450)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
