Ahead of Her First Grand Slam Semifinal, American Sofia Kenin Now 7-1 Odds to Win Australian Open

• Sofia Kenin has never been as far as a semifinal in a grand slam at any point in her career
• Kenin has lost just one set in the entire tournament
• Kenin is just 1-4 head-to-head against Ashleigh Barty and 0-1 against Simona Halep

The 2020 Australian Open women’s semifinals have been set. While there have been a number of surprises along the way, seeing No. 14 Sofia Kenin as the last American standing has to be one of them. She’s still on the board at +700, according to the Australian Open odds. Is she worth considering at this price at this point?

2020 AO Women’s Singles Odds

Odds taken Jan. 29

Kenin Advances to First Grand Slam Semifinal

When Kenin steps onto the court for her semifinal match, it will be the furthest she’s been at any grand slam tournament. Previous, the furthest she had been was the fourth round of the 2019 French Open. While most of the American hype was around Coco Guaff, Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka, it’s Kenin who is the last American standing.

Kenin has been fairly impressive in this tournament as she’s won all but one set to this point. She won her first three matches in straight sets, lost a first-set tiebreaker to Coco Gauff and then won the next two, and then won her quarterfinals match in straight sets as well. She’s actually lost just 39 games in the entire tournament.

The challenge here is that Kenin has had a very easy path to the semis, which has to be a concern. She played a qualifier in her opening two matches, then played three unseeded players. Sure, Gauff is one of the top unseeded players but she’s still unseeded. Kenin hasn’t had to beat a single seed to get to the semis.

Kenin Doesn’t Play Well Against Barty

We have to remember that Kenin is just 21 years old and is a player that’s on the rise, so it’s important to take some of these stats with a grain of salt. She’s getting better by the year. However, she doesn’t have a great track record against her next opponent, who is No. 1 Ashleigh Barty.

The two players have faced off a total of five times and Barty has won four of those contests. Barty has actually lost just three sets to Kenin. Even in Kenin’s lone win, Barty actually won the first set and had the lead.

And if she beats Barty, she’ll likely have to face Simona Halep, whom she’s lost her only match against. However, if she does get to face Garbine Muguruza, she’s won their only meeting.

What’s the Best Bet?

Kenin has had a nice run but she hasn’t beaten a single-seeded opponent to date. That has to be a concern. Sure, she’s smoked the competition but the competition hasn’t offered much resistance yet. Is it possible she beats Barty and then has to face Muguruza instead of Halep in the finals – a much friendly result for her? Yes.

At the same time, the betting odds show Barty is favored and Halep is favored, so she likely has to go through two top-end seeds that are playing really well right now. Considering Kenin doesn’t have a pedigree of success at grand slams and this is the furthest she’s been, I wouldn’t bet on her winning it all.

Instead, I’d take a shot with Barty. Barty just smoked No. 7 Petra Kvitova and has looked great in this event. Halep could challenge her but I have a sneaking suspicion Halep gets pushed to the limit by Muguruza and maybe even loses (Muguruza has won two straight meetings). That points me in the direction of the favorite, which is Barty.