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Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Italian Open Final

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in Tennis

Updated May 20, 2023 · 5:40 PM PDT

Holger Rune serving
Mar 28, 2023; Miami, Florida, US; Holger Rune (DEN) serves against Taylor Fritz (USA) (not pictured) on day nine of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
  • No. 7 seed Holger Rune is the -140 betting favorite against vs Daniil Medvedev in the Italian Open Final
  • Rune has the lone win between these two head-to-head, winning in Monte Carlo in April
  • Read below as we break down Rune vs Medvedev, with odds analysis and a betting prediction

Holger Rune has dominated top-5 competition in his young career.

It’s the one thing standing in his way from an Italian Open title, in the form of 3rd-seeded Daniil Medvedev.

The 7th-ranked Rune has already made noise this tournament, knocking off defending champion Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals.

Medvedev, meanwhile has made quick work of his side of the draw, dropping just a single set all tournament.

The Italian Open men’s final goes Sunday (May 21) at 10am ET. You can watch the match live on the Tennis Channel.

Rune vs Medvedev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[7] Holger Rune (DEN) -1.5 (-120) -140 O 22.5 (-120)
[3] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) +1.5 (-115) +115 U 22.5 (-115)

Despite ranking lower than his competition, Rune is the betting favorite for the second-straight match. His -140 odds on the moneyline gives him an implied win probability of 58.33%.

Rain has wreaked havoc on the event, and there could be delays on championship Sunday, with scattered thunderstorms on the forecast.

Odds as of May 20 at DraftKings.


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Rune Rallies to Beat Ruud in Semifinal

It’s been a spirited run to the finals for the 20-year-old Rune.

After dispatching Djokovic in three sets, he needed to go the distance to drop 4th-seeded Casper Rune 6-7(7-2), 6-4, 6-2.

Ruud had dominated the head-to-head having won all four previous matches before this breakthrough.

His serve was a key in this one, winning 61% of his first serves, and an even sharper 76% on his second.

The Dane has improved to a sparkling 7-1 in his career against players ranked in the top five.

The win vaults him into his third final on clay this season. He’s split two decisions, losing to Andrey Rublev in Monte Carlo, and beating Botic van de Zandschulp in Munich.

If we’re talking fatigue, Rune has been the busier of the two in Rome: he’s played three straight three-set matches. He also went the distance against Aussie Alexei Popyrin in Round 4.

Rune vs Medvedev Head-to-Head

Holger Rune
Daniil Medvedev
20 (April 29, 2003) Age 27 (Feb. 11, 1996)
Denmark Birthplace Russia
6-2 Height 6-6
4 Career ATP Singles Titles 19
No. 7 (April 17, 2023) Career-Best Ranking No. 1 (Feb. 2, 2022)
No. 7 Current Ranking No. 3
$4,274,963 Career Prize Money $30,125,406
25-9 2022 Won/Loss Record 38-5
0 Head-to-Head Wins 1

Medvedev Downs Tsitsipas to Reach Final

While there was some drama, it was actually the weather that turned the Medvedev-Stefanos Tsitsipas into marathon.

Rain forced two stoppages late in the first set, and play was suspended for more than four hours on those occasions. In the end, the Russian won 7-5, 7-5.

While he only had two aces, Medvedev won a whopping 86% of his first serves. He also broke the Greek on all four of his break point opportunities.

It’s been a nice turnaround in Rome for Medvedev, who didn’t last a single match in three previous Italian Open starts. Ranked third in the world, an ATP title here would push him past Djokovic into the second spot.

Medvedev would be ranked second in next week’s French Open.

Clay isn’t his specialty: this will be Medvedev’s second title appearance on the surface, the first since 2019.

Rune vs Medvedev Prediction

It will be the second career matchup between these two, and the second time in the last three tournaments.

Rune bounced Medvedev in the quarterfinals of the Monte Carlo Masters in April, winning in straight sets 6-3, 6-4.

It was quite a victory for the Dane, as Medvedev had reached the final of the previous five tournaments he had played in, winning four.

After the Monte Carlo loss, he lost in the fourth round in Madrid, before reaching the final again in Rome.

Those are the two blemishes Medvedev has had on his clay court circuit this season. For a guy that prefers the hardcourt, he’s run a 9-2 mark on clay on the year, and he’ll be gunning for his fifth title of the year.

As for Rune, he has been on the court for 2+ hours more than his opponent in Rome, and played 21 more games. Like Medvedev, he’s had just two clay-court losses on the season, winning 13 times.

Look for the younger Rune to stay solid against top-5 competition.

Picks: Rune ML  (-140)

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