Jodar vs Kokkinakis Predictions & Best Bets (Sep 1)
By Juan Pablo Aravena in Tennis
Published:
- Rafael Jodar is the favorite (-900) for this 2026 US Open match against Thanasi Kokkinakis
- My focus for this game lies on the spread (-7.5, +104) as Jodar should win this game comfortably
- The Under in total games (U 34.5, -133) points to a dominant performance and a straight-sets win for Jodar
The opening round of the US Open Men’s Singles features an intriguing matchup on September 1, 2026, at 1:20 PM ET, as Spain’s Rafael Jodar takes on Australia’s Thanasi Kokkinakis. Scheduled for Stadium 17, this Round of 128 clash presents a quintessential favorite-versus-underdog dynamic for sports bettors.
My primary question before handicapping this match is whether the colossal rankings disparity will strictly dictate the flow of the game. Jodar enters as the World No. 13, boasting 2,671 ATP points and an impressive No. 9 spot in the year-to-date Race rankings. Meanwhile, Kokkinakis arrives as a heavy underdog, sitting far behind at No. 417 with just 118 points.
Bettors must determine if Jodar’s top-tier statistical form yields an easy blowout, or if the unheralded Australian can keep this first-round test unexpectedly competitive.
Jodar vs Kokkinakis Picks and Best Bets
My primary wager targets Rafael Jodar to cover the -7.5-game spread.
Rafael Jodar -7.5 Games (+104 at Kalshi)
The matchup data supports a favorite who can win on both sides of the ball: Jodar’s 1.503 Dominance Ratio, 31.9% return-games-won rate and 53.5% of return points won against first serves all comfortably exceed Kokkinakis’ 1.136, 20.9% and 48.6%, respectively. He also creates 0.73 break points per game to Kokkinakis’ 0.46, a meaningful edge for building separation on a hard court.
That statistical profile is reinforced by the current ratings: Tennis Abstract lists Jodar at a 2,014.5 overall Elo and 1,934.7 hard-court Elo, compared with Kokkinakis at 1,793.8 and 1,764.5. Jodar has also won two of his past three hard-court matches, while Kokkinakis most recently lost to Nicolas Borges in Cincinnati and retired against Alexei Popyrin in Montreal.
With Jodar’s return pressure likely to create multiple breaks, the -7.5 games remains the most logical approach.
Under 34.5 Total Games (-133 at Kalshi)
With the current Kalshi total set at 34.5 games, the Under 34.5 presents a strong complementary angle to a Jodar victory. Jodar’s 2,671 overall ATP points across 22 tournaments and superior return profile point toward a favorite capable of controlling the match rather than allowing extended service holds and tiebreaks.
Meanwhile, Kokkinakis has managed just 118 points across nine tournaments, and his recent hard-court results include a loss to Nicolas Borges in Cincinnati and a retirement against Alexei Popyrin in Montreal. Because Jodar is operating near the pinnacle of the men’s game while his opponent has seen limited competitive volume, the favorite is well-positioned to secure a straightforward result.
A match controlled by Jodar’s return pressure should have a good chance to stay below the 34.5-game threshold.
Jodar vs Kokkinakis Odds
Odds sourced from Kalshi prices converted to American odds. Last Updated: 2026-09-01, 8:14 am ET.
The Kalshi prices make Jodar an overwhelming moneyline favorite at -900, while the spread market is comparatively close to even money: Jodar -7.5 games is priced at +104 and Kokkinakis +7.5 at -108. That spread price offers a more practical way to back the favorite than laying the steep moneyline.
The total has moved to 34.5 games, with Over 34.5 at +127 and Under 34.5 at -133. The market still leans toward a relatively compact match, but the higher total gives Kokkinakis a little more room than the previous 33.5-game line. Bettors should weigh that extra margin against Jodar’s expected return pressure before pairing the total with the spread.
Jodar vs Kokkinakis H2H Record
Rafael Jodar and Thanasi Kokkinakis have no prior head-to-head history. Consequently, bettors evaluating the spread and totals must lean entirely on the massive ranking disparity and each player’s recent individual form metrics rather than past head-to-head outcomes.
Juan Pablo is a sports writer and betting analyst with over 15 years' experience in the industry. He is an expert in European and Latin American soccer, as well as NBA, MLB, NHL, NFL, college sports, and EuroLeague. He was born and raised in Chile and is fluent in Spanish, English, and Portuguese.
