Nitto ATP Finals Odds & Preview: Novak Djokovic Starts as +140 Favorite
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- The ATP Finals have relocated to Turin, Italy this year after more than a decade at London’s O2 Arena
- Novak Djokovic, who hasn’t won the ATP Tour Finals since 2015, nevertheless is the odds-on favorite
- The list of favorites exactly follows the seeding order. We break down the event, and pick a winner
World No. 1 Novak Djokovic generally is the favorite every year when the ATP Finals come along.
But he hasn’t won it since 2015. And in recent years, a number of underdogs have come along to take the year-end prize.
So it’s worth scrolling down the list of odds, and see who is in the best form.
Nitto ATP Finals Odds
| Seed | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| [1] | Novak Djokovic (SRB) | +140 |
| [2] | Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | +275 |
| [3] | Alexander Zverev (GER) | +550 |
| [4] | Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | +900 |
| [5] | Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +1400 |
| [6] | Matteo Berrettini (ITA) | +1500 |
| [7] | Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | +1800 |
| [8] | Casper Ruud (NOR) | +2000 |
Odds as of Nov. 13 at DraftKings
Red Group the Stronger of the Two
Djokovic’s chances of making it through to next weekend looked even better once the two round-robin groups were drawn. And getting the lowest seed in the entire event as his opener is also a bonus.
I see they've sorted the ATP Finals groups by height this year. https://t.co/p3FNuXuucV
— Gill Gross 🏜️ (@Gill_Gross) November 11, 2021
But if few give newcomer Casper Ruud much of a chance, the other two players in the Green Group aren’t in great form.
Andrey Rublev hasn’t been a factor for months. He has won back-to-back matches just once since the US Open, and that was at a lower-level event just before Indian Wells.
An arm injury whose nature Tsitsipas declines to disclose but that he says he has been managing for years, has kicked in as this season winds down.
Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the ATP Tour with 55 wins in 2021 and was playing his 73rd singles match on Wednesday against Alexei Popyrin.
But, clutching his arm several times, Tsitsipas retired for the first time.
"It was something that I had to do today." https://t.co/At1wVGSGcm
— TENNIS (@Tennis) November 4, 2021
Tsitsipas was 39-9 through his run to the French Open final. Since then, he’s been a (relatively) pedestrian 15-9.
And in his opening match at the Paris Masters two weeks ago, he retired in the first set against Alexei Popyrin – only the second injury retirement in his pro career.
“Big 3” reign at ATP Finals Long Over
Either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer won the ATP’s year-end extravaganza every year from 2003-2015.
Djokovic himself won four straight through the end of that period. And the majority of the time, they faced a fellow “Big 3” member in the final.
But a lot has changed.
After Andy Murray won it as No. 1 back in 2016, the last four champions have been surprises to a lesser or greater extent. And the finalists also often have come from the lower seedings.
It makes taking Djokovic a tough call, despite his favored status.
Previous Nitto ATP Finals Winners and Finalists
| Year | Champion | Finalist |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | [4] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | [3] Dominic Thiem (AUT) |
| 2019 | [6] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | [5] Dominic Thiem (AUT) |
| 2018 | [3] Alexander Zverev (GER) | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) |
| 2017 | [6] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) | [7] David Goffin (BEL) |
| 2016 | [1] Andy Murray (GBR) | [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) |
| 2015 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [3] Roger Federer (SUI) |
| 2014 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [2] Roger Federer (SUI) |
| 2013 | [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) |
| 2012 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [2] Roger Federer (SUI) |
Djokovic himself acknowledges that, having been there and done that so many times, others might be more motivated and fresh for a bucket-list win.
One Millennial – and Gen Z
The eight-man field includes Djokovic, who will be 35 next May, and seven players ranging in age from 22 to 25.
https://twitter.com/dzirlz/status/1459175330065879047
Most are a lot taller, serve harder, and have more velocity on their groundstrokes.
And yet, he’s still the king.
Opening Nitto ATP Finals Matchups
| Group | Players | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Red | [2] Daniel Medvedev (RUS) vs. [7] Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | -650 / +400 |
| Red | [3] Alexander Zverev (GER) vs. [6] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) | -265 / +195 |
| Green | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. [8] Casper Ruud (NOR) | -1000 / +550 |
| Green | [4] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) vs. [5] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | -135 / +105 |
Hurkacz Can Empty the Tank
Unlike many of the others, first-time qualifier Hurkacz doesn’t have the looming spectre of the Davis Cup finals, which only begin in two weeks and run into December.
So he can truly empty the tank. He’s dangerous enough as it is, and a worthy underdog.
Zverev is in the same position, having decided not to play the Davis Cup event.
🔴Red Group🔴
🇷🇺 @DaniilMedwed
🇩🇪 @AlexZverev
🇮🇹 @MattBerrettini
🇵🇱 @HubertHurkacz
🔥🔥🔥🎾 pic.twitter.com/JK7HX8XQ2b— Hubert Hurkacz (@HubertHurkacz) November 11, 2021
Medvedev has to get out of the tougher group, which he likely will do. But you’d think his path to the trophy could run through Djokovic in the semis.
The Russian is the defending champion, undefeated in the 2020 edition. But while he beat both Djokovic and Zverev in the round-robin portion, he didn’t have to face either of them in the semis or final.
Best Bet: Alexander Zverev (+550)
Longer Shot: Hubert Hurkacz (+1800)
Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
