Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – US Open Men’s Singles Final
- No. 1 Novak Djokovic faces No. 2 Daniil Medvedev in the US Open men’s final (Sunday, 4pm ET)
- The world No. 1 needs one more win to complete the rare calendar Grand Slam
- The Serb is the favorite in this historic final – read on for analysis and best bets
The odds, spread and other props for Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev in Sunday’s US Open men’s singles final look rather similar to those for Djokovic’s Friday semifinal against No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev.
But Sunday’s US Open final is for the big trophy. And also for history.
Djokovic vs Medvedev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -4.5 (-110) | -275 | O 38.5 (-110) |
| [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | +4.5 (-115) | +210 | U 38.5 (-115) |
Odds as of Sept. 11 at DraftKings
Djokovic Going for History
Not since Aussie legend Rod Laver in 1969 has a male player won all four Grand Slam tournament in a calendar year.
For all of you looking for this *epic* point 😏
🎥: @SportsCenter pic.twitter.com/bDq1mw68t9
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 11, 2021
It has only been getting more difficult in recent years. But Djokovic stands on the cusp of history after winning the first three majors, and his first six matches at the US Open.
He needs one more.
A Marathon Against Zverev in the Semifinals
Djokovic has not played his best this fortnight. He has lost the first set in his last four matches and needed 3.5 hours to get past Zverev, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2.
For the most part, the Serb won that because he was more opportunistic on the break points. He went 6-for-9.
Zverev went 3-for-12. And two of those breaks came when Djokovic double-faulted on break point. Those were only two double faults of the match for the Serb.
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head
| 34 (May 22, 1987) | Age | 25 (Feb. 11, 1996) |
| Belgrade, Serbia | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-6 |
| 85 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 12 |
| No. 1 (July 4, 2011) | Career High Ranking | No. 2 (March 15, 2021) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 2 |
| $151,870,635 | Career Prize Money | $17,293,705 |
| 44-5 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 46-10 |
| 5 | Career Head-to-Head | 3 |
Medvedev Eases Past Auger-Aliassime in First Semifinal
Not only did No. 2 seed Medvedev get the earlier semifinal (a 3pm start Friday versus about 7:30pm for Djokovic), he also had a routine victory and has spent a lot less time on court overall.
The 6-4, 7-5, 6-2 win over first-time Slam finalist Félix Auger-Aliassime Friday took a tidy two hours, four minutes.
Auger-Aliassime had his shot. He broke Medvedev for 5-3, and had two set points as he served for the second set. But Medvedev went on to win 10 of the last 12 games in the match.
The Canadian never fully regained his bearings after that lost opportunity.
Djokovic vs Medvedev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Australian Open (F) | Outdoor Hard | 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2020 | ATP Finals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-3 | Medvedev |
| 2020 | ATP Cup (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 5-7, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2019 | Masters Cincinnati (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 | Medvedev |
| 2019 | Masters Monte Carlo (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 | Medvedev |
| 2019 | Australian Open (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-2, 6-3 | Djokovic |
| 2017 | Eastbourne (SF) | Grass | 6-4, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2017 | Davis Cup (1R) | Indoor Hard | 3-6, 6-4, 6-1, 1-0 retd | Djokovic |
The match Djokovic is playing for history will be against the next-best player on the ATP Tour at the moment. An opponent you hope, who will make him earn it.
Both Will Give it their All
Medvedev said Friday that Djokovic threw completely different tactics at him in their Australian Open final, than he had used in the matches leading up to it.
It caught him off guard; this time, he’ll be ready for it. And in his third major final, he’ll be more at ease.
“I think the thing that I understand, I always give my best, but I feel like I didn’t leave my heart on the court in Melbourne. Even if of course I wanted to, there was something not turning up this match. That’s what I’m going to try to do. … No matter the score, I’m just going to turn up the heat and try to do my best, even more than what I did in Melbourne.”
Djokovic has been a man on a mission, with not a single ounce of energy wasted on dramatics. But he didn’t look that fresh physically even early on against Zverev (never mind by the end).
"One match left. All in. Let’s do it… I’m going to treat the next match Iike it’s the last match of my career.”@DjokerNole #USOpen pic.twitter.com/lAx8NmlKlC
— ATP Tour (@atptour) September 11, 2021
Props we like: Medvedev having a break point in Djokovic’s first service game (+200). Medvedev winning the first set (+145).
And this thoroughly intriguing parlay, in which the biggest potential roadblock is Djokovic out-acing Medvedev: Djokovic To Win the Match, Serve the Most Aces, Over 0.5 Tie Breaks and Over 38.5 Games. That one checks in at +2800.
Best Bet: Djokovic in Five Sets (+370)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
