Pegula vs Sabalenka & Jabeur vs Sakkari Odds & Picks – WTA Finals (Nov 4)
- The semifinalists from the Nancy Richey group will be determined at the WTA Finals Friday
- Maria Sakkari is in; Jessica Pegula retains only the slimmest of hopes
- Read on as we break down Friday’s matchups, the Pegula vs Sabalenka and Jabeur vs Sakkari odds and make our predictions
After losing her first two pool matches, top American Jessica Pegula’s hopes for qualifying for the semifinals at the WTA Finals in Fort Worth aren’t completely dashed.
But they are hanging by a literal thread, as she takes on Aryna Sabalenka (Friday, November 4, 4:30 pm ET).
Pegula vs Sabalenka Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [3] Jessica Pegula (USA) | -1.5 (+108) | -110 | O 21.5 (-109) |
| [7] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) | +1.5 (-137) | -113 | U 21.5 (-117) |
Odds as of Nov. 4 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the WTA Finals
The odds are nearly identical to win this match with Pegula -110 and Sabalenka -113 in moneyline WTA Finals odds.
The first thing Pegula has to do is win her match against Sabalenka in straight sets. And then Maria Sakkari has to beat Ons Jabeur in straight sets. Not impossible, but unlikely.
For Sabalenka, the key is to win the match.
In that case, only Jabeur beating Sakkari in straight sets would prevent her from being the second semifinalist (with Sakkari finishing atop the pool).
Pegula vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head
| 28 (Feb. 24, 1994) | Age | 24 (May 5, 1998) |
| Buffalo, NY | Birthplace | Minsk, Belarus |
| 5-7 | Height | 5-11 |
| 2 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 10 |
| No. 3 (Oct. 24, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021) |
| No. 3 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $6,280,356 | Career Prize Money | $11,424,910 |
| 42-20 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 32-20 |
| 1 | Head-to-Head Wins | 3 |
Pegula is also 0-2 in doubles with Coco Gauff as well. It’s been a terrible week for both of them.
And Sabalenka, as it happens, is a pretty terrible opponent for her.
Pegula vs Sabalenka Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Rome (R16) | Outdoor Clay | 6-1, 6-4 | Sabalenka |
| 2021 | Madrid (R16) | Outdoor Clay | 6-1, 6-2 | Sabalenka |
| 2020 | French Open (R128) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-1 | Sabalenka |
| 2020 | Cincinnati (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 | Pegula |
Even if all three recent meetings have been on clay, Sabalenka has blown her out every time.
Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka Prediction
The odds are just about dead even on this one, despite the head-to-head.
That has stayed steady, as well; there has been no late outpouring of confidence for Pegula.
We think the stakes will lead to at least one big attack of nerves on serve for Sabalenka. And so it will be complicated for both, and take awhile.
But it feels like Sabalenka deserves to be in the semifinals, and will make it.
Best Bet: Sabalenka in Three Sets (+340)
Jabeur vs Sakkari Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [2] Ons Jabeur (TUN) | -2.5 (-105) | -150 | O 21.5 (-108) |
| [5] Maria Sakkari (GRE) | +2.5 (-121) | +120 | U 21.5 (-117) |
Sakkari has nailed down a spot in the semifinals with her first two victories. But she’s still a +120 underdog in the odds above to Jabeur.
The only suspense for her will be if she finishes atop the pool (to play the second-place finisher in the other pool) or second, in which case she’s likely to face world No. 1 Iga Swiatek.
So she has plenty to play for as well.
Jabeur vs Sakkari Head-to-Head
| 28 (Aug. 28, 1994) | Age | 27 (July 25, 1995) |
| Ksar El Hellar, Tunisia | Birthplace | Athens, Greece |
| 5-6 | Height | 5-8 |
| 3 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 2 (June 27, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 3 (March 21, 2022) |
| No. 2 | Current Ranking | No. 5 |
| $8,964,743 | Career Prize Money | $7,582,028 |
| 47-16 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 39-22 |
| 2 | Head-to-Head Wins | 1 |
The only scenario in which the latter option would happen is if Pegula beats Sabalenka, and Jabeur defeats Sakkari in their match (8 pm ET, November 4).
Sakkari the Underdog vs Jabeur
The two have only one prior meeting on indoor hard court. And Sakkari won that.
Yet, she remains the underdog versus Jabeur Friday.
Jabeur vs Sakkari Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Rome (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 1-6, 7-5, 6-1 | Jabeur |
| 2020 | Ostrava (QF) | Indoor Hard | 3-6, 6-3, 6-1 | Sakkari |
| 2015 | Sobota ITF (R16) | Outdoor Clay | 7-5, 6-1 | Jabeur |
Jabeur will know by the time she steps on the court what she has to do. Winning in straight sets is the best way to ensure she gets to the weekend. But there’s still a chance she can finish atop the pool and avoid Swiatek, by winning and also having Pegula win in three sets.
The issue for her is that Sakkari has gained serious form this week.
The Greek star is at her best when there’s less pressure on her.
And relatively speaking, she has no pressure – at least, compared to her three other pool mates.
Ons Jabeur vs Maria Sakkari Prediction
Jabeur’s record looks decent in large part because Pegula is having a sub-par week.
The match doesn’t set up as anything other than a Sakkari victory, even if anything is possible on the day.
Best Bet: Sakkari in Two Sets (+250)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
