Predictions, Picks & Odds for Wu vs Alcaraz

• #2 seed Carlos Alcaraz faces Wu Yibing at the US Open today
• Alcaraz’s hard-court Elo and 52-week performance metrics point to a straight-sets win
• Check out the top predictions, picks and odds for the Wu vs Alcaraz Round 3 matchup, below

Carlos Alcaraz looks to punch his ticket to the 4th round when he faces massive underdog Yibing Wu at the US Open today. The match is set for 1:00 PM ET inside Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Currently ranked No. 3 in the world, Alcaraz squares off against a No. 113-ranked Wu who is hunting for a monumental upset. Wu enters with momentum after straight-set wins over Adam Walton and James Duckworth, but Alcaraz has also opened the US Open with convincing victories over Roman Safiullin and Jaime Faria. The question is whether Wu can turn his solid recent results into sustained resistance against a player who has been operating at a much higher level.

Below, I’ll break down the top predictions and picks, along with the latest odds, for the Wu vs Alcaraz Round 3 showdown.

Odds for Wu vs Alcaraz

Odds via bet365 on Sep 4. Get the bet365 promo code today to start betting on the US Open.

The betting lines reinforce the massive disparity between these two competitors, pricing Alcaraz as an overwhelming favorite to advance. Given the unplayable -1923 moneyline on the Spaniard, my betting focus shifts squarely toward the 7.5-game spread and the 32.5 total games market.

If Wu can replicate the early service rhythm he showcased against Alcaraz in Shanghai, pushing the match Over 32.5 provides a compelling angle. The spread is slightly trickier; a 7-6, 6-2, 6-2 victory for Alcaraz hits the Over on total games but still results in a cover for the favorite on the -7.5 line.

Predictions and Picks for Wu vs Alcaraz

Wu vs Alcaraz Best Bet: Alcaraz -2.5 Sets (-117 at Polymarket)

When line shopping at prediction markets like Polymarket, Alcaraz -2.5 sets is the strongest play on the board. Alcaraz has won his first two US Open matches easily and has repeatedly handled high-level opponents in his recent results, including Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, and Taylor Fritz. Wu’s recent hard-court wins are encouraging, but his losses to Francisco Comesana and Jaime Faria show that his level can drop against quality opposition.

The 52-week efficiency gap also makes a sweep more attractive than chasing Wu’s early-match service potential. Alcaraz’s breakpoints-prevail ratio is 3.000 compared with Wu’s 1.198, while his match-efficiency mark is 3.278 versus 1.162. Wu’s 70.0% tiebreak win rate is a reason not to assume every set will be routine, but Alcaraz’s superior return pressure should create more opportunities to avoid another extended tiebreak scenario.

Using Polymarket’s implied probability pricing for a 3-0 sweep gives us a much more palatable -117 price tag than the traditional moneyline, offering a way to back the favorite without eating the extreme -1923 vig. Grab the Polymarket bonus code now to tail this selection.

H2H History for Wu vs Alcaraz

Their lone previous meeting still offers useful context: Alcaraz won in straight sets, but Wu pushed the opening set to a tiebreak before fading in the second. That result shows Wu can keep the match close for stretches, though the broader numbers suggest repeating that resistance for three full sets is a difficult proposition.

Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings reinforce Alcaraz’s edge, with the Spaniard 394 points higher on hard-court Elo (2,073.3 to 1,679.1) and 466 points clear overall (2,146.8 to 1,680.0); Tennis Ratio’s 52-week comparison points in the same direction. Alcaraz leads Wu in dominance ratio, 2.196 to 1.248, and is superior in nearly every key serve-and-return category: service games won, 90.0% to 80.2%; return games won, 30.1% to 24.1%; and first-serve points won, 74.1% to 70.7%.