- Roger Federer recently won his 101st ATP title at the Miami Open
- Returning to clay this season, his French Open odds have shortened to an average of +2700
- Is there value in Federer ending Nadal’s reign at Roland-Garros?
The world’s fourth ranked men’s tennis player Roger Federer is making his return to the French Open in May. Fresh off his Miami Open title win, Federer’s average odds to win at Roland-Garros have now come down to +2700.
You can follow the average odds to win the French Open for each player leading up to and during the tournament with our 2019 French Open Odds Tracker.
2019 Men’s French Open Odds
|Player||2019 Men’s French Open Odds|
Odds taken 04/01/19.
Though historically Roland-Garros has not been his best event, it’s not like Federer has never had success there.
Federer was French Open champion in 2009. He reached the quarterfinals in 2015, which was the last time he participated. In 2016 an injury forced him to miss the event, and he’s chosen to skip the tournament each of the past two years.
Baseline Award: Greatest Model of Efficiency
In an abbreviated season, Nadal sat atop the rankings for the majority of the year, finishing at No. 2 with five titles, including his 11th French Open.
— TENNIS (@Tennis) December 24, 2018
Since Federer’s 2009 win, the French Open has been won by only three players. Truthfully, it’s been dominated by Rafael Nadal. Nadal is the current two-time defending champion and has won it seven times since 2009. In total, Nadal has emerged victorious at the French Open 11 times in his career.
Nadal is the current two-time defending champion and has won the French Open seven times since 2009.
The only other recent winners of the tournament include Novak Djokovic in 2016 and Stan Wawrinka in 2015.
Both Nadal and Djokovic are currently huge betting favorites to win the event this year. Wawrinka’s average odds sit at +3300.
101 Titles and Counting
In any other tournament, Federer’s betting odds would likely be right up there alongside Nadal and Djokovic. Having now won 101 ATP titles after winning in Miami, it would be well-deserved.
But while average odds of +2700 are still long on the Swiss legend, they have been slowly shortening after having seen an average of +3100 last month.
— Miami Open (@MiamiOpen) March 31, 2019
Federer’s odds have been trimmed due to the incredible month the 37-year-old has seen. Federer began the month of March with a historic 100th career ATP title at the Dubai Open.
From there he continued his strong 2019 season advancing to the finals of Indian Wells where he was defeated by Dominic Thiem. The month of March concluded on Sunday with The Swiss Meastro adding yet another title to his resume.
In case you ever wonder why Roger Federer gets called the Swiss Maestro…pic.twitter.com/NV15HY1Flb
— Gaspar Ribeiro Lança (@gasparlanca) March 29, 2019
Federer dropped his very first set of the Miami Open to Radu Albot. From there he bounced back by winning the next two sets and never looked back.
In the final against 2018’s champion John Isner, Federer basically coasted towards winning his 101st ATP title. He defeated the 33-year-old American 6-1 6-4 to claim his fourth Miami Open title. He also failed to drop a single set the rest of the tournament after that initial lost set to Albot.
Does Federer Offer French Open Betting Value?
If you ask Federer this question, the answer is no.
“Not very confident,” he said. “I don’t even remember how to slide anymore. You know, I’m taking baby steps at this point.”
That was his response to the question of his expectations and confidence heading into the clay court season. Federer will first return to the Madrid Open to reacquaint himself with the clay surface. Federer has three Madrid titles to his name, having last won in 2012.
Roger Federer: "After Dubai I will play in Indian Wells, Miami and one or two tournaments on clay before the French Open." pic.twitter.com/CvJEgYUO1F
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) February 11, 2019
While he may not be feeling confident, he is the only player to have won two titles in the 2019 season already. Overall, he has an 18-2 record this year.
Betting futures is all about finding value, and with Nadal and Djokovic at such low odds bettors may have to look elsewhere. Injuries could also once again beset Nadal, as he was forced to withdraw from his semifinals match against Federer at Indian Wells with a knee injury.
Federer is the only player to have won two titles in the 2019 season already. Overall, he has an 18-2 record this year.
While Djokovic stormed out of the gates in 2019, he suffered early exits at both Indian Wells and the Miami Open.
Among the remaining top five favorites, clay court specialist Thiem has to be considered. Yet he followed up his recent title with an opening round loss in Miami. He also failed to reach the final of either clay court tournament played this year.
.@ThiemDomi just won Indian Wells. ?
Last year he reached #RG18 final, beaten by Rafael Nadal… He is likely to win his first Grand Slam tournament at Roland Garros. Will he be the heir? pic.twitter.com/THiSxAKBgB
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) March 18, 2019
Fourth favorite Alexander Zverev reached the finals of the Mexican Open, but otherwise it’s been a rather underwhelming season thus far for the world’s third ranked player.
All that said, I think Federer’s odds are too good to pass up. He may not win. But a deep run will give you plenty of opportunities to hedge your bet as the tournament progresses.