Tour de France Odds, Picks, and Predictions 2021

• The Tour de France begins Saturday, June 26th, in Brest, Brittany
• After his dramatic come-from-behind win at last year’s Tour Tadej Pogacar is a mild favorite over the man he ran down, Primoz Roglic
• Where is betting value present at this year’s Tour De France?

COVID-19 turned the Tour de France last year into a late summer affair. It also produced one of the great comebacks in cycling history. Tadej Pogacar shocked Primoz Roglic in a mountain time trial on Stage 20 overcoming a seemingly insurmountable deficit.

Pogacar and Roglic are the favorites in 2021, but the dominant team in the sport, Ineos Grenadiers, has a strong roster and is coming off Egan Bernal’s confident victory in the Giro d’Italia.

Let’s look carefully at the odds for the top contenders in the General Classification and discuss the best betting options.

2021 Tour de France Yellow Jersey Odds

Odds as of June 14th, 2021.

While there are plenty of legitimate longshot options, if this year’s Tour ends up as a three man race it could be legendary. You have the defending champion who won in the most dramatic way last year, the man he passed at the end, who oh by the way went on to capture his second straight Vuelta a España, and whoever emerges from the dominant team.

While Pogacar and Roglic are obvious favorites, how Team Ineos attacks the race is a bigger question. Formerly Team Sky, they have won the race seven of the last nine years. In 2019 Egan Bernal outdueled teammate and 2018 champ Geraint Thomas, who finished second. The competition within Ineos is so fierce last year Thomas didn’t even ride in the Tour, and this year Bernal was asked to focus on the Giro, which he won, but steer clear of the Tour.

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Though not fully by design, this year’s Tour de France route is a pretty traditional one. The event was supposed to start on July 2 in Copenhagen, but because of COVID-19, and not wanting too many people in Denmark while they are hosting four matches in rescheduled Euro 2020, the Tour shifted starting locations. Not wanting to be too close in timing to the Olympics, the dates got pushed up.

The course itself eases into the heavy lifting. There are no major climbs until Stage 8. Perhaps the most exciting day will be Stage 11 when riders tackle a double ascent of Mont Ventoux. Stages 5 and 20 are individual time trials.

Is this a 2020 rematch?

You could argue that last year Jumbo – Visma brought a more star studded team to the Tour than Ineos. While Roglic was their top dog, Tom Dumoulin is more than capable in leading a team, and Wout van Aert, George Bennett, and Sepp Kuss all put in serious work. While everybody will remember Pogacar on Stage 20, Jumbo and Roglic controlled large portions of the race.

Jumbo once again has a top team assembled for the Tour, and this year Pogacar will not slip under the radar.

One of the biggest differences between a novice fan of cycling and a guru is understanding how important the full roster is. A good team supports and can really provide a safety net for their top rider. That is what makes Pogacar’s win so incredible. While initially he may not have been taken seriously, he often was the only member of his squad among the lead group, and had to largely win the race going with the flow while others dictated the terms.

Nobody could have seen his historic time-trial performance coming, but it isn’t a surprise that when on even terms with other top GC riders, when teammates can not assist you, that is the moment he was able to seize control. That said, his teammates have gotten better. Signings of Rafal Majka and Marc Hirschi should be very helpful in the mountains.

Sleep on Ineos at Your Own Peril

When Richard Carapaz won the Tour de Suisse on June 13 it represented the fifth WorldTour stage-race victory of the season for Ineos.

Roglic took the Tour of the Basque Country, Thomas the Giro, Thomas and Richie Porte finished first and second in the Tour de Romandie, and Porte was first while Thomas finished third in the Critérium du Dauphiné. Should we really bet against Ineos now?

Thomas, Carapaz, and Porte are all signed up for the Tour, and each is capable. The issue is, which one should you bet on? What about Tao Geoghegan Hart? There is some thought that this is the best Ineos team ever, which is hard to imagine.

Since each rider’s odds are reasonable, you could tier your bets and kind of bet against the two favorites, and have some stake in each of the Ineos contenders. That’s the play if you believe in team over individual.

Should We Consider Any Longshots?

Pogacar wasn’t an extreme longshot but he was far from the favorite last year. Who is in great form right now and could perform well at a price?

Mikel Landa has finished among the top ten at the Tour de France in four straight years.

Though he has not won this year, Landa was third at the Tirreno–Adriatico and Industria & Artigianato di Larciano. He also made the top ten at the Trofeo Laigueglia and Tour of the Basque Country.

French native David Gaudu won this year’s Classic Sud-Ardèche and made the podium at the Liège–Bastogne–Liège.

Gaudu has been among the Top 10 this year at the Tour of the Basque Country, Tour des Alpes-Maritimes et du Var, La Flèche Wallonne, and Critérium du Dauphiné. Last year the 24-year-old was eighth at the Vuelta a España.