Valkyries vs Dream Best Bets, Picks & Props for Game 3 of WNBA Finals
By Chris Amberley in WNBA
Published:
- The Valkyries and Dream meet in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals tonight in Atlanta
- You can find major value in the game total market at Kalshi
- See the Valkyries vs Dream best bets, picks and props for Game 3 of the WNBA Finals, below
Knotted at one game apiece, the WNBA Finals move to Atlanta tonight, where the Dream (6-1 postseason) host the Golden State Valkyries (6-2 postseason). The teams have split the first two games in Golden State, with Atlanta out-scoring the Valkyries 143-133 in the series. The head-to-head sample is small, so the postseason records and scoring profiles offer useful context beyond those two games.
Atlanta has stolen home court and enters as the favorite in the WNBA Championship odds and in this game. Below, you’ll find my favorite Valkyries vs Dream best bets, picks and props for Game 3 of the WNBA Finals.
Valkyries vs Dream Best Bets and Picks for Game 3
Moneyline Pick: Atlanta (-150 at Kalshi)
Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM, but I prefer the Dream on the moneyline if you have access to the 60-cent price at Kalshi. Atlanta’s 6-1 postseason record and +8.28 average point differential compare favorably with Golden State’s 6-2 record and +4.13 differential.
The Dream have also won the transition battle by a staggering margin in the first two games of the finals, outscoring Golden State 30-6 in fast-break points, and have made 86 percent of their free throws (48-for-56). Two games is a very limited sample but they add to the case for Atlanta at home. New users can sign up with the Kalshi promo code and get a bonus to use on tonight’s game.
Game-Total Pick: Over 149.5 (-122 at Kalshi)
The total is 151.5 at BetMGM but a lower 149.5 at Kalshi (with juice on the over). The first two Finals games have averaged just 138 combined points, and both teams are shooting 33 percent from the field in the series, so the Under has a clear recent-series case.
The broader postseason scoring trend points the other way, though: Atlanta is averaging 86.57 points for and 78.29 against per game, while Golden State averages 81.88 for and 77.75 against. Those figures put their typical game totals around 164.9 and 159.6, respectively.
Given that larger-sample baseline, I’d take Over 149.5 at Kalshi, which is available at a reasonable 55-cent (-122) price.
Valkyries vs Dream Props for Game 3
Best Prop Pick: Angel Reese 12+ Rebounds (-113 at Novig)
Angel Reese has averaged 14 rebounds through the first two Finals games (12 in Game 1 and 16 in Game 2), hitting this 12+ line in both.
She also hit 12+ rebounds in all three regular-season meetings with Golden State (12, 12, 13).
Heading home to Atlanta has also been a boon to the league’s top rebounder: she averaged 11.5 RPG on the road during the regular season compared ot a massive 13.3 RPG at home.
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Valkyries vs Dream WNBA Finals Stats
Atlanta has averaged five more points per game than Golden State, helped by its edge at the free-throw line and in ball movement. The Dream are averaging 16 assists per game, compared with 12.5 for the Valkyries. Both teams have struggled to make shots, though, and are shooting 33 percent from the field.
Golden State has been the stronger shot-blocking team, averaging nine blocks per game to Atlanta’s 4.5. The Dream have made more plays in the passing lanes, with 9.5 steals per game. The Valkyries hold a small edge on the boards, 36.5 to 35.5, while both teams are averaging 13 turnovers.
Reese leads Atlanta with 22 points and 14 rebounds per game. Gabby Williams is Golden State’s leading scorer at 20 points per game.
Valkyries vs Dream Odds for Game 3
Odds as of Oct 20 at BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM promo code to get in on the action.
BetMGM has Atlanta at -3.5, meaning the Dream need to win by at least four points to cover. Golden State covers if it wins or loses by three or fewer. The game total is 151.5 points; bettors can take either the Over or the Under.
Kalshi lists Atlanta at 60 cents and Golden State at 41 cents. Those prices offer an alternative to MGM’s traditional moneyline odds of -154 for Atlanta and +130 for Golden State. Compare the available prices before placing a bet.
After removing the vig from MGM’s moneyline, Atlanta’s implied win probability is 58.24 percent, while Golden State’s is 41.76 percent.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
