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XFL Predictions & Odds – XFL Week 4 Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in XFL

Updated Mar 11, 2023 · 6:01 AM PST

Jack Heflin fumble recovery celebration
Feb 26, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Roughnecks lineman Jack Heflin (96) celebrates his fumble recovery against the Arlington Renegades in the third quarter at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
  • XFL Week 4 odds are live, with Houston vs Orlando kicking off the slate on Saturday evening
  • The Roughnecks are the biggest favorite on the board, giving 9 points to winless Orlando
  • Keep reading for the latest XFL Week 4 odds below, plus our XFL best bets

The XFL season rolls on Saturday, kicking off Week 4 with a doubleheader. The league has been wildly entertaining so far, with Houston and DC establishing themselves as the early front runners for the title. They’re heavy favorites in the XFL Week 4 odds.

Speaking of Houston, the Roughnecks will suit up for the first game of the Week 4 slate, and online sportsbooks are expecting them to trounce Orlando for the second time this season.

XFL Week 4 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Roughnecks -9 (-110) -365 O 37.5 (-110)
Orlando Guardians +9 (-110) +300 U 37.5 (-110)
Team Spread Moneyline Total
San Antonio Brahmas +4.5 (-110) +175 O 40.5 (-110)
Seattle Sea Dragons -4.5 (-110) -205 U 40.5 (-110)
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Arlington Renegades +4 (-110) +150 O 36.5 (-110)
St Louis BattleHawks -4 (-110) -175 U 36.5 (-110)
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Vegas Vipers +6 (-110) +205 O 42 (-110)
DC Defenders -6 (-110) -245 U 42 (-110)

Unbeaten Houston is currently a 9-point favorite, the largest on the board. The biggest total belongs to the Sunday night showdown between Vegas and DC, as the Defenders look to continue their perfect run as well.

DC is actually the leader in the XFL Championship odds, boasting slightly shorter odds than the Roughnecks to win the inaugural title of XFL 3.0.

Odds as of March 9 at DraftKings Sportsbook


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Houston Roughnecks vs Orlando Guardians Picks

If you’re new to wagering on minor league football, you’ll want to check out our guide on how to bet the XFL. The league is full of unique rules that helps distinguish itself from the NFL and college ranks, and plenty of those quirks affect how you should think about your bets.

Houston blew out Orlando 33-12 in Week 1. They’ve continued to make impressive strides on both sides of the ball, while the Guardians have become the league’s punching bag.

Orlando ranks last in both points for and points against per the XFL stats. They’ve scored just five touchdowns through three weeks, mustering only nine points in their Week 3 defeat. Life won’t get any easier against the league’s top scoring defense.

Houston leads the XFL in not only points allowed but also sacks and interceptions while ranking second in tackles for loss.

Roughneck vs Guardians Picks: Houston Roughnecks (-9)

San Antonio Brahmas vs Seattle Sea Dragons Picks

This is the second-highest totaled game on the slate, and we expect it to live up to expectations. Seattle boasts the league’s best passing offense thanks to former Dallas Cowboys QB Ben DiNucci. He looks extremely comfortable in June Jones’ run-and-shoot offense, leading the Sea Dragons to 30 points last week.

Seattle has seen all three of its games exceed the total, while San Antonio has the ability to punch back. Brahmas’ QB Jake Coan has thrown 5 TDs through three weeks, while the Sea Dragons’ defense has yielded the third most points.

Brahmas Sea Dragons Picks: Over 40.5

Arlington Renegades vs St. Louis BattleHawks Picks

Arlington certainly isn’t a team to get excited about offensively, as evident by their three total offensive touchdowns. Defensively, however, they are strong. They’re tied for the second-fewest points allowed per game, and have forced eight turnovers, two which have been returned for scores.

Arlington also gets after the quarterback at a strong clip, which presents problems for St. Louis. As good as BattleHawks’ QB AJ McCarron has been through three weeks, he’s been under heavy duress. McCarron has already been sacked 12 times, and the pressure has also led to a pair of interceptions and three fumbles.

On the other side of the ball, St. Louis has coughed up the fourth most points, leaving optimism for the Renegades to find an offensive ceiling.

Renegades vs BattleHawks Picks: Arlington Renegades (+4)

Vegas Vipers vs DC Defenders Picks

DC puts its undefeated record on the line versus the winless Vipers. Vegas has made the QB switch to Brett Hundley, and the former Packer has looked sharp throwing for over 300 yards, and rushing for 90 more.

Hundley will have his hands full on Sunday though, as the Defenders are tied for the second best scoring defense. DC has already forced eight turnovers, while also racking up 10 sacks.

XFL Championship Odds

Player Odds
DC Defenders +225
Houston Roughnecks +250
St. Louis BattleHawks +500
Arlington Renegades +600
Seattle Sea Dragons +800
San Antonio Brahmas +1000
Vegas Vipers +2000
Orlando Guardians +2500

The Defenders meanwhile, are operating a two-QB system. It’s been very effective so far, as both Jordan Ta’amu and D’Eriq King are threats to produce with their arms and their legs. DC leads the league in rushing by a wide margin and has two more rushing TD than anyone else. Look for them to bleed the clock dry with a run heavy approach.

Vipers vs Defenders Picks: Under: 42.5 (-110)

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