NFL Draft Betting Odds: See All the Best 2026 NFL Draft Props
By Matt McEwan
Updated:
- Get the latest NFL Draft odds, including which player will be taken first overall in 2026
- Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza is the favorite to go first-overall in the 2026 NFL Draft
- Track the odds for NFL Draft props as we approach the 2025 NFL Draft in April
I have been tracking all the NFL Draft odds and props available across all sportsbooks from the moment they opened. Among others, we have odds to be taken with the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and will have odds to be a top 5/10/32 pick, draft position over/unders, first player taken at each position, and many more. As we draw closer to draft night, we will see many more NFL Draft betting markets begin to open.
The 2026 NFL Draft is currently set for Thursday, April 23 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The NFL Draft odds in the graphs below are from prediction markets.
NFL Draft Odds for First Overall Pick
Fernando Mendoza is the heavy favorite to be selected first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Indiana QB is given as short as -20000 odds at FanDuel and as long as -1000 at BetMGM. If you bet $20 on Mendoza to be the first pick at BetMGM, with their -1000 odds, you would stand to profit $2 and return $22.
With the Las Vegas Raiders getting the first pick, it makes sense for a QB to be so heavily favored to hear their name called first. The Raiders did not get the production they wanted out of Geno Smith in his first season with the team, and do not have any QB of the future currently on their roster. However, Las Vegas’ options at rookie QBs are dwindling, as many of the big names have opted to stay in school, with Dante Moore being the most recent.
According to Kalshi, Fernando Mendoza has a 95% chance to be selected first-overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, making him the clear favorite. Arvell Reese is the only other player given 1% or better chance by the prediction market.
What originally looked to be an extremely stacked QB class coming out in 2026 has lost most of its hype, as many prospects have opted to stay in college for at least one more season
*NFL Draft odds are updated every 20-30 minutes.
Here are some notes on the odds movement we’ve seen:
- [February 12] Not that he was given much of a chance to be the 1st overall pick, but Trinidad Chambliss’ name was removed from the NFL Draft after he won his legal case to gain an extra year of eligibility in the NCAA. This left Mendoza and Ty Simpson as the only two QBs projected to be picked in the first two days of the draft.
- [January 14, 2026] Dante Moore announced he will be staying at Oregon for another season, pulling his name from the NFL Draft. Moore had the second-best odds to be selected first-overall before his decision. His removal made Mendoza an even heavier favorite.
- [November 8] Beating Penn State was the cause for Fernando Mendoza taking over as the new favorite to be selected 1st overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.
- [October 12] A good performance in a big win over Michigan led to USC QB Jayden Maiava taking over as the favorite.
- [September 8] A strong start to the season led to LaNorris Sellers taking over as the favorite to be the first-overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
- [July 26] Some of Manning’s family spoke out about Arch staying in college for two seasons as Texas’ starting QB, meaning he would not leave college for the 2026 NFL Draft. This is what led to Garrett Nussmeier taking over as the favorite
- [June 21] Manning was an odds-on favorite to be selected first-overall at prediction markets in the summer after some positive hype and high-expectations of the Longhorns.
- [April 26, 2025] Arch Manning opened as the favorite to be the first-overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, in spite of not having played a full season as Texas’ starting QB yet. Drew Allar’s odds were a close second to Manning, as Arch was given +200 odds to Allar’s +225.
Previous NFL First Overall Picks
Here are a few trends to note with the first overall pick:
- USC has the most first-overall picks coming from their school with six. Notre Dame, Georgia, and Oklahoma are tied for the second-most with five each
- Here’s the positional breakdown of the 92 total first overall picks: 37 have been quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 16 defensive linemen, six offensive linemen, three wide receivers, two tight ends, four linebackers, and one defensive back
- The first overall pick has been a quarterback in 7 of the last 8 drafts, and 9 of the last 11
- No running back has been selected first overall since Ki-Jana Carter in 1995
- Three of the last eight first overall picks won the Heisman Trophy in their final college season – Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, and Travon Walker, the five most recent first overall picks, did not
NFL Draft Position Over/Unders
Draft position over/unders will likely open in late March at sportsbooks. I am not positive if prediction markets will get this granular, but I am optimistic they will.
Odds to Be a Top Pick in NFL Draft
While sportsbooks haven’t opened up many NFL Draft betting markets outside of the first pick, prediction markets have provided plenty of early opportunity to bet on the draft.
2nd Overall Pick Odds
Arvell Reese is projected to be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Reese has the ability to play on the edge (standing up) or as an off-ball linebacker. The Jets hold the second pick and have a ton of holes to fill. However, this isn’t the draft for QBs (beyond Mendoza), and Reese is widely considered the best defender available.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook who has odds available beyond the first pick. They are offering a market on the second-overall pick as well, where they have Arvell Reese listed as a heavy -115 favorite, with David Bailey at +150 odds. Everyone else is +600 or longer. You can currently get a better price on either of those players at Kalshi.
3rd Overall Pick Odds
The Cardinals hold the third pick in the draft, and many believe they will look to make a change at QB. But that new player is unlikely to be found in this spot. The odds say they will take Francis Mauigoa, an offensive tackle out of Miami, with this pick. Even the player with the second-best probability is Spencer Fano, another OT.
4th Overall Pick Odds
The Titans hold the fourth pick in the draft. Kalshi’s probabilities favor Robert Saleh’s new team taking David Bailey, an edge rusher from Texas Tech. Prediction markets firmly believe the Titans will prioritize an edge player with this pick, as Reuben Bain Jr is a close second in the probabilities.
5th Overall Pick Odds
The fifth pick in the draft is currently held by the New York Giants, and there are two players prediction markets believe will be targeted with this pick: (1) Caleb Downs, who is being referred to as one of the best safety prospects ever; and (2) Carnell Tate, one of the top WR prospects in the draft. The former would mostly be a best player on the board pick, while Tate would certainly help solve a hole next to Malik Nabers at WR.
Top 3 Pick Odds
According to the prices at Kalshi, Fernando Mendoza and Arvell Reese are near locks to be selected in the top three picks of the draft. It is interesting to see David Bailey given such good chances in spite of him not being a favorite to be selected with any of the first three picks (seen above). Bailey is notably given better odds to be a top three pick than Francis Mauigoa, who is the favorite to be taken third-overall.
Top 5 Pick Odds
The volume traded on this market at Kalshi is still quite low, so there are some discrepancies in prices at the moment. Jeremiyah Love is notably given very favorable chances to be a top five pick, but trading his “No” option is still quite expensive.
Top 10 Pick Odds
There are ten players given better than 50% chances to be selected in the top 10 picks of the 2026 NFL Draft. Of those ten players, Mansoor Delane is the least probable at 67%. The player with the best chances outside of those top 10 is Spencer Fano at 34%.
Top Players Drafted at Each Position
Below you will find the odds on which player will be drafted first at each playing position. Many of these NFL Draft props have clear favorites, but the draft is one of the most unpredictable events in football. So, I look at these props as an opportunity to find some value.
Quarterback
I’m not sure we will see odds to be the first QB selected, since it’s a foregone conclusion that it will be Fernando Mendoza. We do see odds to be the second QB drafted, though.
Ty Simpson is strongly favored to be the second quarterback selected in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Running Back
Jeremiyah Love is heavily favored to be the first running back selected in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Jadarian Price, who played alongside Love at Notre Dame, is currently the favorite to be the second running back selected in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Wide Receiver
At opening, Carnell Tate is given the best odds to be the first wide receiver taken in the draft. However, this market is very new and I expect it to see some major shifts as more money is traded. Both Makai Lemon and Jordyn Tyson will be in the mix here.
Makai Lemon and Jordyn Tyson are seen as the favorites to be the second wide receiver selected in the draft.
Tight End
Kenyon Sadiq is the overwhelming favorite to be the first tight end drafted this year.
Eli Stowers is the favorite to be the second tight end selected.
Offensive Lineman
The early odds have Francis Mauigoa and Monroe Freeling as the favorites to be the first offensive lineman selected in the draft. However, this market is still very new and we will see big adjustments as more money is wagered. The same goes for the second OL selected below.
Defensive Lineman or EDGE
Arvell Reese’s position label coming into the draft will have a major effect on the odds for first DL or EDGE rusher drafted. Reese projects to be the top defender entering the draft, but he flipped back-and-forth between linebacker and rushing the edge at Ohio State. Kalshi is currently considering him an edge defender, and he is the favorite to be the first edge player selected.
Peter Woods is a slight favorite over Caleb Banks in the odds to be the first DT selected.
Linebacker
The odds to be the first linebacker selected in the draft favor Sonny Styles.
Defensive Back
At the moment, Kalshi is grouping all DBs together in one market – the first DB taken. We may see them add extra markets dedicated to corner and safety, but this is what they have for now. Caleb Downs is the favorite to be the first defensive back selected.
States That Can Bet on the NFL Draft
Sadly, not every state with legal online sports betting allows betting on the NFL Draft. Here is the short-list of states where you can legally bet the NFL Draft at an online sportsbook:
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- Colorado
- Florida
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa (shuts down 24 hours before the draft begins)
- Kansas
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Mississippi (only at a casino)
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nevada (closes 24 hours before draft begins)
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Oregon
- Tennessee
- Washington, DC
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
If you don’t see your state on that list, the good news is that you can sign up at Kalshi and trade on the NFL Draft from any of the 50 US states.
2026 NFL Draft Order – First Round
The 2026 NFL Draft order is fully set. The Las Vegas Raiders will make the first pick of the draft, while the Seahawks will make the final pick of the first round (as the Super Bowl champions). There are six teams who do not currently hold their own first round pick, which you can see in the table above.
Odds to Have 1st Overall Pick in 2026 NFL Draft
Teams to Select First in Past Drafts
Here are a few trends when it comes to the teams selecting first overall:
- The Colts (both as Baltimore and Indianapolis) and Rams (as Cleveland, St Louis, and Los Angeles) are tied for the most times picking first overall with seven each
- Three teams have never selected first overall: the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens
- The first overall pick has been traded six times, most recently in 2023 when the Panthers traded up for Bryce Young. They actually gave up the 2024 first overall pick in this trade as well.
- A team from the AFC South has had the first overall pick in three of the last five seasons
- The Cleveland Browns (2017-18), Cincinnati Bengals (1994-95), Philadelphia Eagles (1936-37), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2021-22) are the only four teams to ever select first overall in back-to-back drafts
NFL Draft Order – How the Process Works
Unlike the NBA and NHL, there is no draft lottery in the NFL. The first 18 picks go to the 18 teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs. The team with the worst record gets the #1-overall pick; the team with the second-worst record gets the #2-overall pick, and so on.
If teams have the same win/loss record, the tie is broken by strength of schedule. The team that played the weaker strength of schedule is awarded the better draft pick. In 2015, for example, the Titans and Browns tied for worst record in the NFL at 3-13. The Titans got the #1 pick (which they traded to the Rams) because they played a weaker schedule than the Browns.
The final 14 picks go to the 14 teams that did qualify for the postseason. Picks #19 through #25 go to the six teams that were eliminated in the Wild Card round. The #19th pick goes to the team with the worst regular-season record among those six teams, and so on.
Repeat this process for teams eliminated in the Divisional Round and Conference Championships. The #32 pick goes to the team that won the Super Bowl.
Archived NFL Draft odds:
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
