Chiefs’ 2019 Win Total Fading With Tyreek Hill Unlikely to Play

• The Kansas City Chiefs have suspended Tyreek Hill indefinitely
• The Chiefs used their top selection in the 2019 NFL Draft to pick up receiver Mecole Hardman
• The Chiefs are tied for the fifth-toughest strength of schedule for 2019

The Kansas City Chiefs have been in the news for the wrong reasons this past week, and they’ve seen their NFL win totals readjusted as a result. With Tyreek Hill now suspended indefinitely, the Chiefs have tumbled from 10.5 win to 10 wins, with the odds now favoring the under. What’s the best bet with this team?

Kansas City Chiefs 2019 Regular Season Win Total Odds

*Odds taken 05/01/19

Chiefs Lose Hill… But For How Long?

Originally, Chiefs fans breathed a sigh of relief when it was announced that the Johnson County District Attorney wasn’t going to press charges on Tyreek Hill. The problem was that this did not exonerate him as a recording was released by KCTV-5 on which you can hear Hill’s fiancée say that Hill hit their three-year-old son.

“At some point, draw the damn line and say enough is enough.”

–@espngolic gets emotional over Tyreek Hill audio and wants NFL owners to take a stand. pic.twitter.com/btCMjeeRZe

— Golic and Wingo (@GolicAndWingo) April 26, 2019

The challenge with Hill is this is not the first time. He was investigated in college for alleged battery of his 20-year-old pregnant girlfriend in 2014. His now fiancée, Crystal Espinal, said that Hill rag dolled her and punched her in the face. As a result, he was dismissed from Oklahoma State.

Fast forward to 2019 and it looks like we have more of the same, as police were at his house twice for suspected abuse in March. The Chiefs cut ties with Kareem Hunt, so could they possibly keep Hill on the roster?

Chiefs Know Competitors Will Pick Up Hill

It feels like the Chiefs know what they have to do with Hill, but they don’t want to do it. They’re built for a Super Bowl run this season and Hill is a key piece. They already cut ties with a Pro Bowl caliber player in Hunt last year and he was already scooped up by the Cleveland Browns. If the Chiefs cut Hill, he’ll surely get another shot somewhere else.

“At what point is there a zero tolerance for a situation like this.”@MariaTaylor is disappointed that the Browns signed Kareem Hunt. pic.twitter.com/JX7evFkqYP

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) February 12, 2019

What the Chiefs are likely waiting for is for the league to hand down a suspension. He could very well be suspended for at least half of the 2019 season – if not more. The Chiefs probably don’t want to cut him because one of their rivals could scoop him up and use him against them later in the season.

Chiefs Draft Hardman to Replace Hill

The Chiefs didn’t have a first-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft but they spent their top pick – a second-rounder – on Mecole Hardman from Georgia. This is a player with a very similar profile to Hill. He’s a burner with excellent deep speed. He ran a 4.33 at the NFL Combine.

@Chiefs draft pick Mecole Hardman got next level wheels ? @MecoleHardman4 pic.twitter.com/RtbJHIpdMX

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) April 30, 2019

The move basically telegraphs that the Chiefs will have to live without Hill. The question is whether or not Hardman is an adequate replacement.

Chiefs Regular Season Win Total Drops

Dating back to last season, the Chiefs have taken a lot of hits and it’s going to be hard for them to overcome. Eric Berry didn’t contribute much last season, but when he’s played well in the past he’s been their best defender. He’s gone. As are pass rushers Justin Houston and Dee Ford.

.@Chiefs @TexasTechFB @PatrickMahomes #gruden I believe I could watch #Mahomes talk QB play all day & all night. Gruden, Payton, Reid all loved this kid’s talent. 2 years later he runs away with the NFL MVP. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/MkuMzl8msy

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) April 28, 2019

On offense, the Chiefs lost Hunt, probably Hill, and starting center Mitch Morse. They also lost a couple of other targets in Chris Conley and Demetrius Harris. Should you worry if you’re a Chiefs bettor? Probably not yet, but this is a lot of turnover for this team.

Division is Improved, Schedule is Tough

The other concern with the Chiefs’ regular season win total is that their division has improved. The Oakland Raiders shouldn’t be a walkover next season and the Denver Broncos should at least be somewhat competent. Even when those teams were bad, the Chiefs won three of the four meetings by just one score.

What do you think about Mahomes being on the cover of the new Madden? #NFL ?

pic.twitter.com/VzMQdlhYJX

— Sharps Society (@SharpsSociety) April 28, 2019

As for the Los Angeles Chargers, they’re again right there in the division. They might even be the team to beat. Add in that the Chiefs have to play the NFC North this season, the AFC South – the only division that had three teams with a winning record last season – and have to visit New England and that figures to be tough.

Bet the Under

It’s hard to bet against Andy Reid because his teams tend to retool on the fly. Hardman probably fits in just fine and the Chiefs still have Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and a pretty good ground game. But 11 wins is asking a lot of this team – especially when you factor the schedule and the division. In my view, they’re more likely to stop at nine wins than hit 11.

Pick: Under 10 (-125)