Mason Rudolph Week 3 Props: Over/Under Passing Yards Set at 250.5

• Mason Rudolph will get his first NFL start Sunday against the 49ers
• Rudolph went 12/19 with two touchdowns and an interception Sunday
• We explore some of the props surrounding Sunday’s game

Since it was announced that Ben Roethlisberger’s season was over, the Steelers have been pumping Mason Rudolph’s tires.

Mike Hilton had the most popular quote, imploring Rudolph to tell reporters he’s ‘built for this sh**’. Looking a little deeper, you could argue that the Steelers think the first round pick they gave up for Minkah Fitzpatrick won’t be that much different than if Big Ben was under center.

On Sunday, we’ll find out if Mason is indeed ready, and just how well the Steelers have brought along the 2018 third round pick.

Week 3 Props: Mason Rudolph

*Odds taken 09/18/2019

The odds aren’t favoring a dynamic first start for Rudolph against the 49ers.

This, even after he hit his projected over on TDs against the Seahawks in relief of Roethlisberger.

As reporters approached Mason Rudolph in the locker room, corner Mike Hilton blurted out, ‘tell them you’re built for this s—-, Mase.’

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) September 16, 2019

But the Steelers’ offense hasn’t been clicking this season. And to get a full idea of what to expect, we not only have to look at Rudolph, but Roethlisberger’s results and what the 49ers have been doing as well.

Passing Averages for the Pittsburgh Steelers

Mason Rudolph’s averages are across eight preseason games. His totals: 368 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions.

While that success came against mostly backups and players out of the league, it does lead us in a couple of directions on Rudolph’s props.

How Many TDs Will Mason Rudolph Throw?

When you break down where Mason Rudolph was throwing on Sunday, it gives you a pretty good idea of how the Steelers will score.

It’s going to be using the quick passing game. And it’s going to be using the right side of the field.

Rudolph went 11/14 for 67 yards, and completed both of his touchdowns on passes to the middle or right side of the field. Both went to Vance McDonald.

Mason Rudolph passer rating in his 1st NFL game: 92.4

Mason Rudolph passer rating in his 1st NFL game, modified if Moncrief holds onto his 1st pass: 122.0

— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) September 15, 2019

There’s a whole untapped portion of the playbook for Rudolph, and it involves JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Connor.

Rudolph went 4/7 when targeting the two of them for 53 yards. And just one of those targets went to Conner, who left with a knee injury.

The running back claims he’ll be good to go on Sunday. If he is, the Steelers will figure out a way to get the ball in the hands of their play-makers.

The Pick: Over 1.5 TDs (+150)

How Many Yards Will Mason Rudolph Finish With?

On Sunday, the Steelers limited the field for Rudolph. He attempted exactly zero passes to the deep middle (20+ yards) portion of the field. And he attempted one pass to the left side of any depth.

And that pass was intercepted.

Ramon Foster on new #Steelers starting QB Mason Rudolph today at practice: "He is the general. (B.J.) Finney made a comment, 'oh's he's getting a little spicy.' I was like 'you are damn right, he's the starting quarterback now.'"

— Mark Kaboly (@MarkKaboly) September 18, 2019

Rudolph has not passed effectively to his left in limited NFL action. In the 2019 preseason, he went 3/8 for 66 yards. In 2018, all five of his passes to his left went incomplete.

He’s completed both passes he’s attempted to the deep middle part of the field in preseason, but that’s two across 77 attempts.

Rudolph simply doesn’t attack enough of the field to challenge the over on yardage.

The Pick: Under 250.5 Yards (-115)